The Calls
Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.
Everyone Sam Lessin (27)Jessica Lessin (26)Brit Morin (16)Dave Morin (13)Stuart Landesberg (3)Mike Brown (1)Ben Smith (1)Anatoly Yakovenko (1)
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Next up (23)
17 days left 2026-09-30
48 days left 2026-10-31
76 days left 2026-11-28
Ben Smith: House Democrats will convene corruption committees targeting Big Tech CEOs
“If the Democrats take the House, we're talking in 20 months, there will be a corruption committee convened, which will have Mark Zuckerberg, Tim Cook, Sundar Pichai, and whoever talking in great detail, but every penny that was directed, and, you know, and I t…”
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
121 days left 2027-01-12
350 days left 2027-08-29
474 days left 2027-12-31
Brown: Teamshares plans to grow corporate EBITDA to $100M by 2027
“We put out a forecast, right, to go from nineteen million of corporate EBITDA. So there's, like, segment EBITDA, right, so it's just sort of roughly, you know, sixty million, but then after our parent overhead of 90 people that, you know, propelled the machine…”
474 days left 2027-12-31
474 days left 2027-12-31
Jessica Lessin: OpenAI has a 90% chance of going public by 2027
“I will say I'm 40% 2026, but like 90% 2027. So I think there is a re reasonable chance next year, and like, I just think they're not gonna go a Stripe, a SpaceX, and all that kind of stuff. Like, they're just not. The body language is totally different.”
698 days left 2028-08-11
860 days left 2029-01-20
891 days left 2029-02-20
905 days left 2029-03-06
1187 days left 2029-12-13
Taylor Swift will retire from music by age 40
“Yeah, I think she retires by 40, she does her 13 albums, she owns all of them, she makes billions of dollars, she marries Travis, the Chiefs win the Super Bowl, like she does one last final tour, and then she's like, cool, and that was my music career,”
1789 days left 2031-08-07
5064 days left 2040-07-25
5223 days left 2040-12-31
Due for another look (1)
Britt Morin: M&A activity and IPOs will increase in 2024
“I still think there's going to be more MNA next year too, because a lot of companies are continuing to like dwindle and can't find footing and funding. But I also do predict, and I don't know if we're in prediction territory yet, but I do predict the IPOs beco…”
Closed calls (60+) the full record →
Jessica Lessin predicts Elon Musk will become a trillionaire
“Elon Musk is going to be a trillionaire.”
Sam Lessin: People Will Kill Themselves and Others Because of AIs
“And like, at some point people are going to start killing themselves and each other because of AIs.”
Morin: DOGE will release a metrics dashboard to the public
“At least what I'm reading from what's going on, it's that they're going in there to get metrics implemented into a dashboard that at some point they're going to show to the American people. And so you will get the transparency.”
Morin: Voice AI will reliably book restaurant reservations within five years
“Five years from now, you will, Sam.”
OpenAI will never release a consumer hardware device
“I don't think there ever will be an open AI hardware device.”
Jessica Lessin: Apple Will Not Hire an External CEO
“They're not going to run a search and hire a CEO from another company to run Apple, unless they're like covering.”
Jessica Lessin says any TikTok ban legislation will inevitably face court challenges
“And then the court, you know, inevitable court challenge of that, because you have to believe that will happen.”
Sam Lessin: An outright US ban on TikTok will never get done
“I think saying ban TikTok, that's a thing that like candidly might be marginally better, but you'll never get done.”
Sam Lessin: Getting humans to Mars during Trump's administration is impossible
“Everyone, you know, you're up there applauding like this, like window, we're going to get to Mars in Trump's administration. And it's absolute horseshit. Like we, like there aren't even window launch windows open for that to happen.”
Brit Morin: Gemini and Anthropic will match OpenAI's health data integration
“Gemini's gonna do this. Anthropoc's gonna do this.”
Lessin: Courts Likely to Bar Apple-Google Search Deal in Current Form
“The courts are likely to say that the Apple Google search deal cannot continue in its current form for antitrust reasons.”
Jessica Lessin predicts Google's $32 billion Wiz acquisition will not close
“I am going to go on record saying this deal will not close.”
Dave Morin predicts Google's Wiz acquisition will easily secure regulatory approval
“I just, I think that it'll go through no question. In fact, I bet it accelerates through.”
Lessin: The TikTok deal will resemble an expanded Project Texas, not a sale.
“Yeah, but I don't think it'll be a straight sale. I think it will be something that kind of resembles this Project Texas data deal they did with Oracle, but more than that”
Sam Lessin: There Is Zero Percent Chance MrBeast Buys TikTok
“Oh, I was short that. There's a zero percent chance.”
Lessin: OpenAI's revenue will ultimately come mostly from businesses
“Like the bulk of OpenAI's revenue, I believe will ultimately like come from businesses”
Jessica Lessin: TikTok will partner with Larry Ellison or Elon Musk
“Tick tock will operate in some form in the U S in a partnership. Either with Larry Ellison or Elon Musk. It's my prediction.”
Brit Morin: Waymo is testing autonomous driving on Highway 101
“They're going to go on the highways soon. They're already testing on the one-on-one.”
Jessica Lessin predicts Skydance will complete the Paramount Global acquisition
“Skydance seems to be the one that's going to get the deal done”
Jessica Lessin: Humane will not sell for $1 billion
“I do not think it will sell for a billion dollars.”
Sam Lessin: ByteDance Will Sell TikTok to Saudi Buyers
“They're going to sell, you know, they're going to sell it to the Saudis.”
Jessica Lessin: Mubadala Will End Up Owning TikTok
“I think Mubadal is going to end up owning TikTok.”