The Calls
Every prediction date that has already passed, checked against the public record: green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly held up. Diamonds at the right edge were assessed before their prediction date arrived.
Everyone Sam Lessin (27)Jessica Lessin (26)Brit Morin (16)Dave Morin (13)Stuart Landesberg (3)Mike Brown (1)Ben Smith (1)Anatoly Yakovenko (1)
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The record (66) every resolved claim →
Jessica Lessin predicts Elon Musk will become a trillionaire
“Elon Musk is going to be a trillionaire.”
Sam Lessin: People Will Kill Themselves and Others Because of AIs
“And like, at some point people are going to start killing themselves and each other because of AIs.”
Morin: DOGE will release a metrics dashboard to the public
“At least what I'm reading from what's going on, it's that they're going in there to get metrics implemented into a dashboard that at some point they're going to show to the American people. And so you will get the transparency.”
Morin: Voice AI will reliably book restaurant reservations within five years
“Five years from now, you will, Sam.”
OpenAI will never release a consumer hardware device
“I don't think there ever will be an open AI hardware device.”
Jessica Lessin: Apple Will Not Hire an External CEO
“They're not going to run a search and hire a CEO from another company to run Apple, unless they're like covering.”
Jessica Lessin says any TikTok ban legislation will inevitably face court challenges
“And then the court, you know, inevitable court challenge of that, because you have to believe that will happen.”
Sam Lessin: An outright US ban on TikTok will never get done
“I think saying ban TikTok, that's a thing that like candidly might be marginally better, but you'll never get done.”
Sam Lessin: Getting humans to Mars during Trump's administration is impossible
“Everyone, you know, you're up there applauding like this, like window, we're going to get to Mars in Trump's administration. And it's absolute horseshit. Like we, like there aren't even window launch windows open for that to happen.”
Brit Morin: Gemini and Anthropic will match OpenAI's health data integration
“Gemini's gonna do this. Anthropoc's gonna do this.”
Lessin: Courts Likely to Bar Apple-Google Search Deal in Current Form
“The courts are likely to say that the Apple Google search deal cannot continue in its current form for antitrust reasons.”
Jessica Lessin predicts Google's $32 billion Wiz acquisition will not close
“I am going to go on record saying this deal will not close.”
Dave Morin predicts Google's Wiz acquisition will easily secure regulatory approval
“I just, I think that it'll go through no question. In fact, I bet it accelerates through.”
Lessin: The TikTok deal will resemble an expanded Project Texas, not a sale.
“Yeah, but I don't think it'll be a straight sale. I think it will be something that kind of resembles this Project Texas data deal they did with Oracle, but more than that”
Sam Lessin: There Is Zero Percent Chance MrBeast Buys TikTok
“Oh, I was short that. There's a zero percent chance.”
Lessin: OpenAI's revenue will ultimately come mostly from businesses
“Like the bulk of OpenAI's revenue, I believe will ultimately like come from businesses”
Jessica Lessin: TikTok will partner with Larry Ellison or Elon Musk
“Tick tock will operate in some form in the U S in a partnership. Either with Larry Ellison or Elon Musk. It's my prediction.”
Brit Morin: Waymo is testing autonomous driving on Highway 101
“They're going to go on the highways soon. They're already testing on the one-on-one.”
Jessica Lessin predicts Skydance will complete the Paramount Global acquisition
“Skydance seems to be the one that's going to get the deal done”
Jessica Lessin: Humane will not sell for $1 billion
“I do not think it will sell for a billion dollars.”
Sam Lessin: ByteDance Will Sell TikTok to Saudi Buyers
“They're going to sell, you know, they're going to sell it to the Saudis.”
Jessica Lessin: Mubadala Will End Up Owning TikTok
“I think Mubadal is going to end up owning TikTok.”
Sam Lessin: Dude Perfect will secure $100M for their theme park
“Well, I don't know what's public or not, but they, I don't know if this is public. They're going to have that money.”
Brit Morin predicts Apple will acquire a major AI company like Anthropic
“Speaking of Apple, I think they come back next year, both in the AI realm, like they're going to make either one big acquisition, like an topic.”
Lessin predicts hundreds of journalists will lose their jobs to AI
“I think like hundreds of journalists are going to lose their jobs to AI.”
Landesberg: Seneca will deploy dozens and hopefully hundreds of aircraft next year
“I mean, I will have certainly dozens of aircraft, hopefully hundreds next year.”
Jessica Lessin: AI power demands will drive new nuclear plant construction soon
“And I think we're gonna see that, like, literally come to, like, building nuclear power plants, right, in, in the near term.”
Lessin: Apple will not remove TikTok due to China exposure
“Apple's not gonna kick them out. Apple's China exposure is enormous, right? Like, you know, even if they should, they won't, right?”
Sam Lessin: Adobe's Figma acquisition will likely close despite scrutiny
“And it probably gets done, and even doesn't get done, whatever. Like, I don't think it really impacts the early stage market.”
Ben Smith: The Atlantic's Signal chat scoop will not win a Pulitzer
“No, and Pulitzer only goes to things that look like newspaper articles from the 19 seventies.”
Dave Morin: China will retain control of TikTok's algorithm despite divestment
“There's one little detail in there, which is that here we are at the very end of this very long, very arduous news story, and China will still retain control of the algorithm, right? Like, so they did win the war of attrition at the end of the day. Like, it so…”
Lessin: Instagram will be the only Meta division working in-office full-time
“I think they'll be the only division.”
Sam Lessin: Taylor Swift will not do the Super Bowl halftime show
“And so I think Taylor is too smart to do the halftime show.”
Brit Morin: Elon Musk's STEM university will launch by late 2025
“And so I do think like, This will get off the ground by the end of the next year.”
Dave Morin: College football and basketball teams will go private in 2025
“2025 will be the year that we see college football and basketball teams going private.”
Brit Morin: Radar breast cancer detection technology will launch commercially in 2025
“This technology will be launching next year though, so soon you won't have to do a stupid mammogram.”
Britt Morin: Discord will pursue an IPO in 2025
“Discord is now going to go out for an IPO this year.”
Landesberg: 2025 will be most expensive wildfire year, topping $1 trillion
“There's a joint Senate committee that a couple of years ago said the cost was about just shy of a trillion dollars, and we already know that because of Palisades, 25 will be the most expensive year on record, so almost certainly over a trillion dollars of econ…”
Sam Lessin: Tesla will not receive robotaxi regulatory approval this year
“You forgot the most important line, which is you're not going to have regulatory approval.”
Khosla: Frontier AI compute costs will drop 80-90% within a year
“My bet is, a year from now, it'll cost one-fifth to one-tenth of what it does today, and my advice to all our startups is ignore the cost of compute, because any assumption you make, any dollar you spend on optimizing your software will be worthless within the…”
Dave Morin: Most programming will be done in English by late 2025
“I think a year from now you know, most programming will be done in English. And I think that's the, there's almost no question.”
Dave Morin: Unprofitable OpenAI and Anthropic will be forced to increase prices
“Like at the rate they're having to raise capital and at the unprofitability of their business models, they can only increase prices from here.”
Swift's podcast appearance will rival Super Bowl viewership numbers
“I think she will be close to Super Bowl numbers.”
Jessica Lessin: Google is highly unlikely to acquire Wiz for $23B
“Like, is Google for twenty-three billion dollars gonna buy Wiz security company? I think it's highly unlikely, but.”
Khosla: AI inference costs will drop up to 10x by June 2025
“I think what will happen is the expensive PhD will become dirt cheap. My bet is a year from now, it'll cost one-fifth to one-tenth of what it does today.”
Jessica Lessin: TikTok Will Sue the U.S. Over First Amendment
“So what's gonna happen after Biden signs this is ByteDance or TikTok is gonna sue to block it on the grounds that it's infringing on the First Amendment.”
Sam Lessin: Elon Musk will still run Tesla in 12 months
“Yes.
Unless he does some hissy fit about his compensation package and like.”
Dave Morin: NotebookLM could replace Google's Gemini UX within six months
“I mean, I think you might see in three, six months that the sort of Gemini core user experience is thrown out in favor of the notebook LM experience because it's just better for everyday consumers.”
CoreWeave IPO Is Lined Up for Next Month, Says Lessin
“The core weave IPO is, is sort of clearly in line for the next month.”
Jessica Lessin predicts the US Senate will take up and pass the TikTok bill
“I think the Senate's gonna pick it up. I think it's happening.”
Sam Lessin: LK-99 superconductor will successfully replicate before 2025
“I'll say yes on one-time replication, and I'll go further to say, like, this is my AI killer scenario, where, like, it's so disruptive if it happens, right, that, like, it's worth putting a lot of effort in trying to figure it out.”
Neistat: Every MrBeast Video Gets More Views Than the Super Bowl
“Every video he posts does more views than the Super Bowl we'll do this year. With Taylor Swift, he will do more views with every video he posts.”
Brit Morin: Mattel will open an Arizona theme park in 2024
“It's opening a Mattel theme park next year in Arizona, by the way, to start driving its experiential business.”
Sam Lessin: YouTube TV will surpass Dish subscribers by year-end
“YouTube will definitely have more subscribers than Dish by the next time we check in on this.”
Brit Morin Predicts Kamala Harris Will Choose Mark Kelly or Josh Shapiro
“I know it'll be Kelly or Shapiro”
Sam Lessin: The 2024 Presidential Race Is Effectively Over for Democrats
“I just feel like this is over, right? Which I know is not what you're supposed to say, and, like, that helps purpose with town out and the whole nine yards, but, like, you know, Trump just had, like, one of the all-time ten-day periods ever, right?”
Sam Lessin: US politicians will not risk banning TikTok before 2024 election
“There's just no chance that in that environment they're gonna, like, risk any youth vote, even if they're terrible, woke people, for the sake of banning TikTok right now. And I think that sucks, because I think it is a huge national security risk, But I think …”