The Calls

⏳ Open 📼 The record

Every prediction date that has already passed, checked against the public record: green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly held up. Diamonds at the right edge were assessed before their prediction date arrived.

40held up → 20didn’t hold up → 6partly held up →
67%of resolved predictions held up
Everyone Sam Lessin (27)Jessica Lessin (26)Brit Morin (16)Dave Morin (13)Stuart Landesberg (3)Mike Brown (1)Ben Smith (1)Anatoly Yakovenko (1)
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The record (66) every resolved claim →

Prediction Held up
Jessica Lessin predicts Elon Musk will become a trillionaire
“Elon Musk is going to be a trillionaire.”
Jessica Lessin Jan 9, 2026 ▶ 9:57 Founders Beware: Illiquid Valuations vs. Real‑World Taxes · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Held up
Sam Lessin: People Will Kill Themselves and Others Because of AIs
“And like, at some point people are going to start killing themselves and each other because of AIs.”
Sam Lessin May 2, 2025 ▶ 43:58 How OpenAI Is Beating Google and Meta at Their Own Game · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Held up
Morin: DOGE will release a metrics dashboard to the public
“At least what I'm reading from what's going on, it's that they're going in there to get metrics implemented into a dashboard that at some point they're going to show to the American people. And so you will get the transparency.”
Dave Morin Feb 7, 2025 ▶ 57:39 #85: The $250M Meme Coin Experiment · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Held up
Morin: Voice AI will reliably book restaurant reservations within five years
“Five years from now, you will, Sam.”
Dave Morin Dec 6, 2024 ▶ 46:10 #76: In a World with 99.99% Accurate AI… (feat. Aaron Levie) · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Didn’t hold up
OpenAI will never release a consumer hardware device
“I don't think there ever will be an open AI hardware device.”
Brit Morin Aug 21, 2026 ▶ 42:56 OpenAI Can’t Hold a Lead, Stripe Buys OpenRouter & AI Hits a Wall · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Held up
Jessica Lessin: Apple Will Not Hire an External CEO
“They're not going to run a search and hire a CEO from another company to run Apple, unless they're like covering.”
Jessica Lessin Apr 24, 2026 ▶ 18:44 What Tim Cook’s “Executive Chairman” Move Really Means | Musk vs OpenAI, xAI and Cursor Rumors
Prediction Held up
Jessica Lessin says any TikTok ban legislation will inevitably face court challenges
“And then the court, you know, inevitable court challenge of that, because you have to believe that will happen.”
Jessica Lessin Mar 15, 2024 ▶ 6:14 #38: Hartz and Minds and TikTok w/ Special Guest Julia Hartz · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sam Lessin: An outright US ban on TikTok will never get done
“I think saying ban TikTok, that's a thing that like candidly might be marginally better, but you'll never get done.”
Sam Lessin Mar 8, 2024 ▶ 13:33 #37: TikTok's Latest Crisis, Elon's Emails, AI Monopolies · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Partly held up
Sam Lessin: Getting humans to Mars during Trump's administration is impossible
“Everyone, you know, you're up there applauding like this, like window, we're going to get to Mars in Trump's administration. And it's absolute horseshit. Like we, like there aren't even window launch windows open for that to happen.”
Sam Lessin Mar 14, 2025 ▶ 20:46 #90: Silicon Valley Unscripted: Billionaires, AI, and Interplanetary Exploration · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Held up
Brit Morin: Gemini and Anthropic will match OpenAI's health data integration
“Gemini's gonna do this. Anthropoc's gonna do this.”
Brit Morin Jan 9, 2026 ▶ 49:21 Founders Beware: Illiquid Valuations vs. Real‑World Taxes · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Held up
Lessin: Courts Likely to Bar Apple-Google Search Deal in Current Form
“The courts are likely to say that the Apple Google search deal cannot continue in its current form for antitrust reasons.”
Jessica Lessin May 9, 2025 ▶ 25:37 OpenAI Acquires Windsurf for $3B, Google's Stock Dips | #98 · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Jessica Lessin predicts Google's $32 billion Wiz acquisition will not close
“I am going to go on record saying this deal will not close.”
Jessica Lessin Mar 21, 2025 ▶ 18:24 #91: Google’s $32B Deal and a Silicon Valley Spy Scandal! · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Held up
Dave Morin predicts Google's Wiz acquisition will easily secure regulatory approval
“I just, I think that it'll go through no question. In fact, I bet it accelerates through.”
Dave Morin Mar 21, 2025 ▶ 20:36 #91: Google’s $32B Deal and a Silicon Valley Spy Scandal! · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Held up
Lessin: The TikTok deal will resemble an expanded Project Texas, not a sale.
“Yeah, but I don't think it'll be a straight sale. I think it will be something that kind of resembles this Project Texas data deal they did with Oracle, but more than that”
Jessica Lessin Feb 14, 2025 ▶ 34:51 #86: Elon’s $97B Curveball For OpenAI · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Held up
Sam Lessin: There Is Zero Percent Chance MrBeast Buys TikTok
“Oh, I was short that. There's a zero percent chance.”
Sam Lessin Jan 24, 2025 ▶ 24:20 #83: Trump Inauguration, Stargate, and the Meme Economy · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Held up
Lessin: OpenAI's revenue will ultimately come mostly from businesses
“Like the bulk of OpenAI's revenue, I believe will ultimately like come from businesses”
Jessica Lessin Dec 27, 2024 ▶ 56:14 #79: The More or Less Holiday Special Pt. 1 (AI Highlights) · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Held up
Jessica Lessin: TikTok will partner with Larry Ellison or Elon Musk
“Tick tock will operate in some form in the U S in a partnership. Either with Larry Ellison or Elon Musk. It's my prediction.”
Jessica Lessin Dec 20, 2024 ▶ 58:55 #78: 2024 Tech Company of the Year + 2025 Predictions · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Held up
Brit Morin: Waymo is testing autonomous driving on Highway 101
“They're going to go on the highways soon. They're already testing on the one-on-one.”
Brit Morin Oct 18, 2024 ▶ 8:46 #69: Robots, Rockets, and Elon Hype · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Held up
Jessica Lessin predicts Skydance will complete the Paramount Global acquisition
“Skydance seems to be the one that's going to get the deal done”
Jessica Lessin Jul 5, 2024 ▶ 12:02 #54: Sun Valley, Tennis and Robots: Summer Adventure Preview · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Held up
Jessica Lessin: Humane will not sell for $1 billion
“I do not think it will sell for a billion dollars.”
Jessica Lessin May 24, 2024 ▶ 4:11 #48: Move Fast (But Don't) Break Silicon Valley · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sam Lessin: ByteDance Will Sell TikTok to Saudi Buyers
“They're going to sell, you know, they're going to sell it to the Saudis.”
Sam Lessin Apr 26, 2024 ▶ 9:37 #44: The $1B AI Girlfriend Market, the Tech Hedge Fund Fallout and Why VCs Can’t Quit AI · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Partly held up
Jessica Lessin: Mubadala Will End Up Owning TikTok
“I think Mubadal is going to end up owning TikTok.”
Jessica Lessin Apr 26, 2024 ▶ 10:01 #44: The $1B AI Girlfriend Market, the Tech Hedge Fund Fallout and Why VCs Can’t Quit AI · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Held up
Sam Lessin: Dude Perfect will secure $100M for their theme park
“Well, I don't know what's public or not, but they, I don't know if this is public. They're going to have that money.”
Sam Lessin Apr 5, 2024 ▶ 23:22 #41: Is AI Killing Media? · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Held up
Brit Morin predicts Apple will acquire a major AI company like Anthropic
“Speaking of Apple, I think they come back next year, both in the AI realm, like they're going to make either one big acquisition, like an topic.”
Brit Morin Dec 19, 2025 ▶ 16:43 Hype vs Reality: Our 2026 Predictions for Tech, Media, and Culture · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Held up
Lessin predicts hundreds of journalists will lose their jobs to AI
“I think like hundreds of journalists are going to lose their jobs to AI.”
Jessica Lessin Dec 19, 2025 ▶ 43:55 Hype vs Reality: Our 2026 Predictions for Tech, Media, and Culture · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Held up
Landesberg: Seneca will deploy dozens and hopefully hundreds of aircraft next year
“I mean, I will have certainly dozens of aircraft, hopefully hundreds next year.”
Stuart Landesberg Oct 31, 2025 ▶ 33:57 Stuart Landesberg's Plan to Save the American West from Wildfires · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Held up
Jessica Lessin: AI power demands will drive new nuclear plant construction soon
“And I think we're gonna see that, like, literally come to, like, building nuclear power plants, right, in, in the near term.”
Jessica Lessin Dec 22, 2023 ▶ 1:02:17 #28: What We Got Right and Wrong in ’23 and Calls for ’24 · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Held up
Lessin: Apple will not remove TikTok due to China exposure
“Apple's not gonna kick them out. Apple's China exposure is enormous, right? Like, you know, even if they should, they won't, right?”
Sam Lessin Dec 1, 2023 ▶ 12:37 #25: TikTok, Porn and The Immediate Risks of AI · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Lessin predicts OpenAI's $86B secondary tender offer will not happen
“Which will not happen.”
Sam Lessin Nov 22, 2023 ▶ 16:53 #24: Sam Altman - Religious Cult Leader or CEO? · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sam Lessin: Adobe's Figma acquisition will likely close despite scrutiny
“And it probably gets done, and even doesn't get done, whatever. Like, I don't think it really impacts the early stage market.”
Sam Lessin Jun 23, 2023 ▶ 9:29 #3: Mr. Beast's burger bust and will M&A ever return? · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Held up
Ben Smith: The Atlantic's Signal chat scoop will not win a Pulitzer
“No, and Pulitzer only goes to things that look like newspaper articles from the 19 seventies.”
Ben Smith Mar 28, 2025 ▶ 22:43 The Signal Scandal & DOGE Drama! (with Ben Smith and Nicholas Carlson) | More or Less #92 · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Partly held up
Dave Morin: China will retain control of TikTok's algorithm despite divestment
“There's one little detail in there, which is that here we are at the very end of this very long, very arduous news story, and China will still retain control of the algorithm, right? Like, so they did win the war of attrition at the end of the day. Like, it so…”
Dave Morin Apr 4, 2025 ▶ 13:49 Can Tesla Survive? | More or Less #93 · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Held up
Lessin: Instagram will be the only Meta division working in-office full-time
“I think they'll be the only division.”
Jessica Lessin Dec 5, 2025 ▶ 21:41 Code Red, Bitcoin Costs, AWS Resurgence, and Waymo Safety (Not About AI... ish) · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Held up
Sam Lessin: Taylor Swift will not do the Super Bowl halftime show
“And so I think Taylor is too smart to do the halftime show.”
Sam Lessin Sep 6, 2025 ▶ 4:10 #115 Anthropic at $170B: Should Unicorns Be Forced to IPO? · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sam Lessin predicts Bitcoin will reach $200,000 in 2025
“Bitcoin 200,000.”
Sam Lessin Dec 20, 2024 ▶ 53:54 #78: 2024 Tech Company of the Year + 2025 Predictions · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Brit Morin: Elon Musk's STEM university will launch by late 2025
“And so I do think like, This will get off the ground by the end of the next year.”
Brit Morin Dec 20, 2024 ▶ 56:26 #78: 2024 Tech Company of the Year + 2025 Predictions · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Dave Morin: College football and basketball teams will go private in 2025
“2025 will be the year that we see college football and basketball teams going private.”
Dave Morin Dec 20, 2024 ▶ 1:04:57 #78: 2024 Tech Company of the Year + 2025 Predictions · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Brit Morin: Radar breast cancer detection technology will launch commercially in 2025
“This technology will be launching next year though, so soon you won't have to do a stupid mammogram.”
Brit Morin Oct 4, 2024 ▶ 48:42 #67: OpenAI Sets a Record and Will Apple Make Its Next Move? · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Britt Morin: Discord will pursue an IPO in 2025
“Discord is now going to go out for an IPO this year.”
Brit Morin Mar 7, 2025 ▶ 37:49 #89: America’s Crypto Reserve, Nvidia’s $600M Hit & Digg’s Comeback · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Partly held up
Landesberg: 2025 will be most expensive wildfire year, topping $1 trillion
“There's a joint Senate committee that a couple of years ago said the cost was about just shy of a trillion dollars, and we already know that because of Palisades, 25 will be the most expensive year on record, so almost certainly over a trillion dollars of econ…”
Stuart Landesberg Oct 31, 2025 ▶ 10:54 Stuart Landesberg's Plan to Save the American West from Wildfires · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Held up
Sam Lessin predicts a Solana ETF will launch in 2025
“I'd say Solana ETF, which will be great.”
Sam Lessin Dec 20, 2024 ▶ 54:13 #78: 2024 Tech Company of the Year + 2025 Predictions · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Held up
Sam Lessin: Tesla will not receive robotaxi regulatory approval this year
“You forgot the most important line, which is you're not going to have regulatory approval.”
Sam Lessin Jul 25, 2025 ▶ 13:33 #109 OpenAI vs Google: The Real Business Model War Begins · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Held up
Khosla: Frontier AI compute costs will drop 80-90% within a year
“My bet is, a year from now, it'll cost one-fifth to one-tenth of what it does today, and my advice to all our startups is ignore the cost of compute, because any assumption you make, any dollar you spend on optimizing your software will be worthless within the…”
Vinod Khosla Dec 27, 2024 ▶ 45:00 #79: The More or Less Holiday Special Pt. 1 (AI Highlights) · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Dave Morin: Most programming will be done in English by late 2025
“I think a year from now you know, most programming will be done in English. And I think that's the, there's almost no question.”
Dave Morin Dec 20, 2024 ▶ 11:25 #78: 2024 Tech Company of the Year + 2025 Predictions · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Partly held up
Dave Morin: Unprofitable OpenAI and Anthropic will be forced to increase prices
“Like at the rate they're having to raise capital and at the unprofitability of their business models, they can only increase prices from here.”
Dave Morin Oct 4, 2024 ▶ 20:30 #67: OpenAI Sets a Record and Will Apple Make Its Next Move? · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Swift's podcast appearance will rival Super Bowl viewership numbers
“I think she will be close to Super Bowl numbers.”
Brit Morin Aug 15, 2025 ▶ 41:30 #112 Swift Should Buy Chrome, Not Perplexity · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Partly held up
Jessica Lessin: Google is highly unlikely to acquire Wiz for $23B
“Like, is Google for twenty-three billion dollars gonna buy Wiz security company? I think it's highly unlikely, but.”
Jessica Lessin Jul 19, 2024 ▶ 35:16 #56: Trump and the PayPal Mafia · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Held up
Khosla: AI inference costs will drop up to 10x by June 2025
“I think what will happen is the expensive PhD will become dirt cheap. My bet is a year from now, it'll cost one-fifth to one-tenth of what it does today.”
Vinod Khosla Jun 14, 2024 ▶ 7:38 #51: Vinod Khosla on What to Build in AI · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Held up
Jessica Lessin: TikTok Will Sue the U.S. Over First Amendment
“So what's gonna happen after Biden signs this is ByteDance or TikTok is gonna sue to block it on the grounds that it's infringing on the First Amendment.”
Jessica Lessin Apr 26, 2024 ▶ 3:18 #44: The $1B AI Girlfriend Market, the Tech Hedge Fund Fallout and Why VCs Can’t Quit AI · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Held up
Sam Lessin: Elon Musk will still run Tesla in 12 months
“Yes. Unless he does some hissy fit about his compensation package and like.”
Sam Lessin Apr 19, 2024 ▶ 38:57 #43: TikTok’s New App, Tesla’s Sunken Stock, Are Tech Workers Leaving Silicon Valley For Good? · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Dave Morin: NotebookLM could replace Google's Gemini UX within six months
“I mean, I think you might see in three, six months that the sort of Gemini core user experience is thrown out in favor of the notebook LM experience because it's just better for everyday consumers.”
Dave Morin Oct 4, 2024 ▶ 19:02 #67: OpenAI Sets a Record and Will Apple Make Its Next Move? · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Held up
CoreWeave IPO Is Lined Up for Next Month, Says Lessin
“The core weave IPO is, is sort of clearly in line for the next month.”
Jessica Lessin Feb 28, 2025 ▶ 53:25 #88: Meta’s $200B AI Bet, Instagram Reels & The Future of Content · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Held up
Jessica Lessin predicts the US Senate will take up and pass the TikTok bill
“I think the Senate's gonna pick it up. I think it's happening.”
Jessica Lessin Mar 15, 2024 ▶ 12:38 #38: Hartz and Minds and TikTok w/ Special Guest Julia Hartz · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sam Lessin: LK-99 superconductor will successfully replicate before 2025
“I'll say yes on one-time replication, and I'll go further to say, like, this is my AI killer scenario, where, like, it's so disruptive if it happens, right, that, like, it's worth putting a lot of effort in trying to figure it out.”
Sam Lessin Aug 4, 2023 ▶ 50:52 #8: Where's the Barbie business pop? Why brands beat marketplaces · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Neistat: Every MrBeast Video Gets More Views Than the Super Bowl
“Every video he posts does more views than the Super Bowl we'll do this year. With Taylor Swift, he will do more views with every video he posts.”
Casey Neistat Feb 2, 2024 ▶ 22:41 #32: Taylor Swift vs. MrBeast w/ Casey Neistat and Ricky Van Veen · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sam Lessin: Solana will surpass Ethereum in market capitalization
“I think Solana flips Ethereum.”
Sam Lessin Dec 22, 2023 ▶ 1:02:48 #28: What We Got Right and Wrong in ’23 and Calls for ’24 · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Brit Morin: Mattel will open an Arizona theme park in 2024
“It's opening a Mattel theme park next year in Arizona, by the way, to start driving its experiential business.”
Brit Morin Aug 4, 2023 ▶ 12:29 #8: Where's the Barbie business pop? Why brands beat marketplaces · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Held up
Sam Lessin: YouTube TV will surpass Dish subscribers by year-end
“YouTube will definitely have more subscribers than Dish by the next time we check in on this.”
Sam Lessin Jan 26, 2024 ▶ 52:25 #31: Fintech Struggles, Netflix Rises and 'Big' is Winning · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Held up
Sam Lessin: The US will not ban TikTok in 2024
“No, TikTok won't be banned, but it should be.”
Sam Lessin Dec 22, 2023 ▶ 54:22 #28: What We Got Right and Wrong in ’23 and Calls for ’24 · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Held up
Sam Lessin: A Bitcoin ETF will finally be approved
“We will get a Bitcoin ETF, finally.”
Sam Lessin Dec 22, 2023 ▶ 1:02:35 #28: What We Got Right and Wrong in ’23 and Calls for ’24 · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Brit Morin Predicts Kamala Harris Will Choose Mark Kelly or Josh Shapiro
“I know it'll be Kelly or Shapiro”
Brit Morin Jul 26, 2024 ▶ 52:07 #57: Zuckerberg’s Open Source AI Manifesto · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Held up
Jessica Lessin: Taylor Swift will endorse Kamala Harris
“Guys, she's gonna endorse Kamala.”
Jessica Lessin Aug 9, 2024 ▶ 3:47 #59: Google: Can it Outrun Regulation? · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Held up
Sam Lessin: The 2024 Presidential Race Is Effectively Over for Democrats
“I just feel like this is over, right? Which I know is not what you're supposed to say, and, like, that helps purpose with town out and the whole nine yards, but, like, you know, Trump just had, like, one of the all-time ten-day periods ever, right?”
Sam Lessin Jul 19, 2024 ▶ 22:34 #56: Trump and the PayPal Mafia · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Held up
Sam Lessin: US politicians will not risk banning TikTok before 2024 election
“There's just no chance that in that environment they're gonna, like, risk any youth vote, even if they're terrible, woke people, for the sake of banning TikTok right now. And I think that sucks, because I think it is a huge national security risk, But I think …”
Sam Lessin Mar 8, 2024 ▶ 5:51 #37: TikTok's Latest Crisis, Elon's Emails, AI Monopolies · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sam Lessin: Ad Copywriting Jobs Will Disappear in Three Months
“They're not going to have a job doing that in like three months.”
Sam Lessin Nov 17, 2023 ▶ 46:44 #23: Why (and How) SMBs and Creators Will Win With AI, the New Financing Contracts, and More · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Held up
Sam Lessin: NVIDIA stock will go up regardless of earnings report
“It literally doesn't matter what they report, the stock will go up.”
Sam Lessin Aug 25, 2023 ▶ 43:05 #11: Why hybrid work doesn’t work, long live the phone call · More or Less Podcast
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