The Argument Index

Debate potential by speaker, the highest-scored statement each year, and the companies with the most bearish calls on record. All of it clickable, all of it playable.

583debate potential 4–5 → 30debate potential 5 → 23rated speakers →
People

Average debate potential by speaker

All 23 guests with 5 or more scored statements, ranked. 7 more have fewer than 5, too few for a fair average. Sort or filter below.

#PersonAvg debate potential Statements scored
1 Josh Wolfe Founder, Lux Capital 3.4 5
2 Joanna Coles Chief Content Officer, The Daily Beast 3.4 10
3 Vinod Khosla Founder, Khosla Ventures 3.03 30
4 Amir Efrati Journalist, The Information 3 9
5 Aaron Levie Co-Founder & CEO, Box 2.96 28
6 Ben Smith Co-Founder, Semafor 2.92 12
7 Adrian Aoun Founder & Investor, aoun.net 2.77 22
8 Elad Gil Founder, Gil Capital 2.59 22
9 Scott Belsky Partner, A24 2.56 9
10 Anatoly Yakovenko Co-Founder and CEO, Solana Labs 2.56 18
11 Scott Stanford Founder, Acme Capital 2.5 6
12 Dan Feder 2.5 6
13 Ben Lerer Managing Partner, Lerer Hippeau 2.5 6
14 Casey Neistat Filmmaker and YouTube Creator 2.5 14
15 Tony Conrad Partner, True Ventures 2.44 16
16 Guillermo Rauch Founder & CEO, Vercel 2.39 46
17 Matt Vascellaro 2.2 5
18 Stuart Landesberg CEO, Seneca 2.18 22
19 Brian Singerman Partner Emeritus, Founders Fund 2.17 6
20 Mike Brown CEO, Teamshares 2.1 21
21 Julia Hartz Co-Founder and former CEO, Eventbrite 1.93 14
22 Erin Foster Co-Founder, Favorite Daughter 1.88 8
23 Sara Foster Co-Founder, Favorite Daughter 1.43 7
Companies

The most bearish calls

Debate potential is an AI score of how much a statement invites disagreement. Bearish counts tally what was said about a company on the show; they describe the conversation, not the company. Every count opens to the exact tape. full disclaimer →

All 313 companies, funds and products with at least one bearish claim on the record.

Company Bearish statements Of which 4–5
OpenAI company 152 ↓ 62
Meta company 75 ↓ 19
Apple company 70 ↓ 12
Google company 57 ↓ 11
Anthropic company 38 ↓ 12
TikTok product 35 ↓ 13
The Information company 28 ↓ 1
ChatGPT product 24 ↓ 8
Tesla company 22 ↓ 9
Twitter company 20 ↓ 7
Microsoft company 16 ↓ 4
Amazon company 15 ↓ 1
NVIDIA company 14 ↓ 5
Instagram product 12 ↓ 3
Slow Ventures fund 11 ↓ 1
Y Combinator fund 9 ↓ 5
Apple Vision Pro product 9 ↓ 1
SpaceX company 8 ↓ 5
Snap Inc. company 8 ↓ 3
Vision Pro product 7 ↓ 1
Uber company 7 ↓ 3
Threads product 7 ↓ 2
Sora product 7 ↓ 3
Reddit company 7 ↓
Gemini product 7 ↓ 1
ByteDance company 7 ↓ 1
YouTube company 6 ↓
xAI company 6 ↓ 3
Vercel company 6 ↓ 2
Stripe company 6 ↓ 2
iPhone product 6 ↓
BuzzFeed company 6 ↓ 1
SoftBank Group fund 5 ↓ 5
Sequoia Capital fund 5 ↓ 1
The New York Times company 5 ↓ 2
Instacart company 5 ↓ 3
Humane company 5 ↓ 1
DeepSeek company 5 ↓ 1
Coinbase company 5 ↓ 1
Waymo company 4 ↓ 1
The Washington Post company 4 ↓
Telegram product 4 ↓ 1
Roblox company 4 ↓ 3
Polymarket company 4 ↓ 1
Perplexity company 4 ↓
Ozempic product 4 ↓
Oracle company 4 ↓
Offline Ventures fund 4 ↓
Netflix company 4 ↓ 1
Lyft company 4 ↓ 2
IOS product 4 ↓ 1
Google Cloud product 4 ↓
Forward company 4 ↓
ESPN company 4 ↓ 1
Cursor product 4 ↓
Carta company 4 ↓ 1
Benchmark fund 4 ↓ 1
Amazon Web Services company 4 ↓
Wiz company 3 ↓
Venmo product 3 ↓
Substack company 3 ↓ 1
Scale AI company 3 ↓ 1
OpenClaw product 3 ↓ 2
OpenAI Sora product 3 ↓
Nike company 3 ↓
Nest company 3 ↓ 2
National Football League company 3 ↓
Mars, Incorporated company 3 ↓ 3
Garmin company 3 ↓
Figma company 3 ↓
Bloomberg company 3 ↓
Bitrig product 3 ↓
Bitcoin product 3 ↓
Airbnb company 3 ↓ 1
Andreessen Horowitz fund 3 ↓ 1
Zapier company 2 ↓ 1
Yahoo company 2 ↓
Truth Social product 2 ↓ 1
Thrive Capital fund 2 ↓ 1
Temu company 2 ↓
SWIFT product 2 ↓
Starlink product 2 ↓
Solana product 2 ↓ 1
Slack company 2 ↓
SearchGPT product 2 ↓
Salesforce company 2 ↓ 2
Safari product 2 ↓ 1
Ripple company 2 ↓ 1
PayPal company 2 ↓
Optimus product 2 ↓ 1
OpenView fund 2 ↓
OpenPipe company 2 ↓
Oculus company 2 ↓
NBA company 2 ↓
Moderna company 2 ↓ 2
Meta Quest product 2 ↓ 1
Meta AI product 2 ↓
Manus AI company 2 ↓
Llama product 2 ↓
Klarna company 2 ↓
Kindle product 2 ↓
Kalshi company 2 ↓
Jasper AI company 2 ↓
The Hershey Company company 2 ↓ 1
GPT V product 2 ↓ 1
Google Vids product 2 ↓ 1
Google Search product 2 ↓ 2
GameStop company 2 ↓ 2
Forbes company 2 ↓
Eventbrite company 2 ↓
EssilorLuxottica company 2 ↓
DeepMind company 2 ↓
The Daily Beast company 2 ↓ 1
Claude Code product 2 ↓
Claude product 2 ↓ 1
Chrome product 2 ↓ 1
Canva company 2 ↓
Brex company 2 ↓
Azure product 2 ↓
Aura company 2 ↓ 1
Atlas Venture product 2 ↓
The Atlantic company 2 ↓
The Athletic company 2 ↓
Android product 2 ↓ 1
Airtable company 2 ↓ 2
z Dot AI company 1 ↓ 1
Yope company 1 ↓ 1
Yieldstreet company 1 ↓
XRP product 1 ↓
Xbox product 1 ↓
WWE company 1 ↓
Writer company 1 ↓
Worldcoin product 1 ↓ 1
Wired company 1 ↓ 1
Windsurf product 1 ↓
Wells Fargo company 1 ↓
Watchman product 1 ↓ 1
Walmart company 1 ↓
The Wall Street Journal company 1 ↓
Walgreens company 1 ↓
VS Code product 1 ↓
Villagemd company 1 ↓
Varda Space Industries company 1 ↓
United Fruit company 1 ↓
TSMC company 1 ↓
Trump Media And Technology Group company 1 ↓ 1
True Ventures fund 1 ↓
Tranium Chip product 1 ↓
Tranium product 1 ↓
TPU product 1 ↓
Toolbars product 1 ↓
Tinder company 1 ↓ 1
Teladocs company 1 ↓
Teenage Engineering company 1 ↓ 1
Target company 1 ↓ 1
Swiftui product 1 ↓
Stupid Coin product 1 ↓ 1
Spotify company 1 ↓ 1
Sony company 1 ↓
Social Capital fund 1 ↓
Snapchat product 1 ↓
Skims company 1 ↓
Siri product 1 ↓
Shopify company 1 ↓
Seeking Arrangements company 1 ↓
S&P 500 Index Fund fund 1 ↓ 1
S And P 500 company 1 ↓ 1
Robots.txt product 1 ↓
Rippling company 1 ↓ 1
Ring company 1 ↓ 1
Retool company 1 ↓ 1
Reels product 1 ↓ 1
Rabbit company 1 ↓ 1
Quen product 1 ↓
Prenuvo company 1 ↓
Postgres product 1 ↓ 1
Porsche company 1 ↓
Politico company 1 ↓
Pinterest company 1 ↓
PG&E company 1 ↓ 1
Pepsi product 1 ↓
Orion product 1 ↓
Opus Four Dot Eight product 1 ↓ 1
Oppo company 1 ↓
OnlyFans company 1 ↓
One Medical company 1 ↓
One Boxes product 1 ↓ 1
NVIDIA H100 product 1 ↓
NPM product 1 ↓
NFX fund 1 ↓
Nex company 1 ↓
News Corp company 1 ↓
New York Stock Exchange company 1 ↓
Netgear company 1 ↓
NBC company 1 ↓
MySpace company 1 ↓
MrBeast Burger company 1 ↓
Mr. Beast's Feastables product 1 ↓
Model 2 product 1 ↓
Meural company 1 ↓
Meta Smart Glasses product 1 ↓
Meta Ray Ban Smart Glasses product 1 ↓
Medium company 1 ↓
McKinsey And Company company 1 ↓
Mattel company 1 ↓
Mac Mini product 1 ↓
Lilly company 1 ↓ 1
Light Phone product 1 ↓
Lapse company 1 ↓
LA Times company 1 ↓
Klout company 1 ↓
Kleenex product 1 ↓ 1
Kinder Morgan company 1 ↓
Khosla Ventures fund 1 ↓
JPMorgan Chase company 1 ↓
Johnny And Sam's Secret Lamp Or Wearable Broach product 1 ↓ 1
Iv Drip product 1 ↓
iPhone Air product 1 ↓
iPhone 16 product 1 ↓
Intuit company 1 ↓ 1
Insta360 company 1 ↓
Inflection AI company 1 ↓ 1
IMessage product 1 ↓
ICloud product 1 ↓
Hulu company 1 ↓
Hugging Face company 1 ↓ 1
Horizon Worlds product 1 ↓
Handshake company 1 ↓
H200 product 1 ↓
Grok Pro product 1 ↓
Grok product 1 ↓ 1
Grammarly company 1 ↓ 1
Gpt App Stores product 1 ↓
GoPro company 1 ↓
Google's Ad Product product 1 ↓
Google Pics product 1 ↓
Google Maps product 1 ↓
Google Gemini product 1 ↓
Google Chrome product 1 ↓
Google AI Overview product 1 ↓
Goldman Sachs company 1 ↓
Gme company 1 ↓ 1
Glm Five Dot Two product 1 ↓ 1
Git product 1 ↓
General Motors company 1 ↓
Full Self Driving product 1 ↓
FTX company 1 ↓
Frontier company 1 ↓
Fortnite product 1 ↓
Fiverr company 1 ↓
Fin AI product 1 ↓
Fentanyl product 1 ↓
Facebook Platform product 1 ↓ 1
Facebook Pages product 1 ↓
Ethereum product 1 ↓
ElevenX company 1 ↓
Duolingo company 1 ↓ 1
DoorDash company 1 ↓
Disney company 1 ↓ 1
DigitalOcean company 1 ↓ 1
Digg company 1 ↓
Deel company 1 ↓ 1
Daylight company 1 ↓
David's Protein Bars product 1 ↓
Databricks company 1 ↓
Cybertruck product 1 ↓
CVS company 1 ↓
Cryptopunk product 1 ↓
Concord company 1 ↓
Comcast company 1 ↓
Codex product 1 ↓
Code With Klossy company 1 ↓
Cloudflare company 1 ↓ 1
CLAUDE.md product 1 ↓
Cisco company 1 ↓
Circle company 1 ↓
Chime company 1 ↓
Character.AI company 1 ↓ 1
CBS News company 1 ↓ 1
Cardano product 1 ↓
Capital Factory fund 1 ↓ 1
Caltrain company 1 ↓
Calendly company 1 ↓
Cadre company 1 ↓
C2pa product 1 ↓
Broadcom company 1 ↓
Brit And Co company 1 ↓ 1
Box.net company 1 ↓ 1
Boom Supersonic company 1 ↓
Booking.com company 1 ↓
Bolt company 1 ↓
Blue Owl Capital fund 1 ↓
Blackstone fund 1 ↓ 1
Bilt Rewards company 1 ↓
Bending Spoons company 1 ↓ 1
Beehiiv company 1 ↓
Beat Saber product 1 ↓
Barbie product 1 ↓
Arc'teryx company 1 ↓
Apple Intelligence product 1 ↓
Apple App Store product 1 ↓
App Store product 1 ↓
AOL Time Warner company 1 ↓ 1
Anti AI Detectors product 1 ↓
Amazon.com company 1 ↓
Allrecipes company 1 ↓ 1
Allen & Co. company 1 ↓ 1
Allbirds company 1 ↓
AGS company 1 ↓
Agents.md product 1 ↓
A Sixteen Z fund 1 ↓ 1
60 Minutes product 1 ↓
30 For 30 product 1 ↓

Highest debate potential, by year

2026

Opinion
Sam Lessin: AI eliminates Silicon Valley's advantage over New York finance workers
“I'd actually argue the average person in Silicon Valley is not as smart as like the average person in New York finance, right? They're not the best marketers. They're not the best at anything. The advantage in Silicon Valley was actually knowing how to write t…”
Sam Lessin Feb 27, 2026 ▶ 32:44 Apple, OpenAI & Why Nobody Makes Money in AI | The SaaS Apocalypse · More or Less Podcast
Opinion
Sam Lessin: AI labs seeking regulatory capture is cynical and anti-American
“I think it's very cynical for these companies to even try to switch the field of play from business to politics, right? Like, I think that's a very cynical, anti-American thing to do, to be like, okay, we're not going to play and compete in capitalism in a fai…”
Sam Lessin Jul 17, 2026 ▶ 21:49 Open Source AI Wins. Now Labs Are Running to Washington |Thinking Machines, Johnny Ive, Realtime API · More or Less Podcast

2025

Assertion Supported
Brit Morin: Deel CEO allegedly recruited Rippling employee as paid spy
“Keith O'Brien, who was the man allegedly spying for deal while working at Rip Lane had to Put out an affidavit today, and he basically, like, came forward and just was like, all right, here's the truth. Alex, how do you pronounce his name? Boise, Boise, the CE…”
Brit Morin Apr 4, 2025 ▶ 46:53 Can Tesla Survive? | More or Less #93 · More or Less Podcast
Opinion
Sam Lessin: Elon Musk and Sam Altman deliberately lie to motivate followers
“I think that Elon and Sam Altman lie, right? I think they say things they know to not be true, to Get people to do things. Right. And like, go on like with them. I just believe that from what I've seen, like, I think they're both way too smart to believe what …”
Sam Lessin Aug 22, 2025 ▶ 26:27 #113 GPT-5 Disappoints: The End of the AI Gold Rush? · More or Less Podcast

2024

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Khosla: Open-source AI models will die due to massive training costs
“It is costing an order of magnitude more to train, and that's why I don't think open source models will be viable because of the training costs.”
Vinod Khosla Jun 14, 2024 ▶ 8:48 #51: Vinod Khosla on What to Build in AI · More or Less Podcast
Opinion
Sam Lessin: The AI revolution is fake outside of narrow applications
“I don't think the AI, I think the AI revolution is fake. We all know this.”
Sam Lessin Mar 8, 2024 ▶ 2:36 #37: TikTok's Latest Crisis, Elon's Emails, AI Monopolies · More or Less Podcast

2023

Opinion
Lessin: Big tech is better off cutting average nine-to-five engineers
“Most of like the line engineers and people who just kind of like, you know, show up in nine to five and crunch out small projects. They're just not that valuable and you're better off cutting them rather than doing whatever you possibly can to retain them.”
Sam Lessin Jul 31, 2023 ▶ 33:10 #7: Elon's X game and RIP seed investing · More or Less Podcast
Opinion
Sam Lessin: LLMs have only two use cases: summarization and data laundering
“There really are two use cases. One is Dave's point, which is summarization, and the other is Brisk's case, which is data theft, right, and data laundering. Like, I agree those are the only use cases”
Sam Lessin Aug 18, 2023 ▶ 50:23 #10: You should kill your startup, What replaces globalization · More or Less Podcast
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