The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Sam Lessin: DeepSeek made massive profits from an Nvidia trade
“They made so much money on their Nvidia trade. It doesn't, it's irrelevant.”
Morin: China proved it can damage the US economy with a press release
“So China's been proven to be able to release the exact right press release that can, you know, damage the world, damage the American economy.”
Morin: US markets erased $1 trillion taking DeepSeek's claims at face value
“And the American markets To, I think, at least some of our surprise, take these claims at face value, and summarily lose one trillion dollars.”
Sam Lessin: DeepSeek indicates AI commoditization, destroying hyperscaler capital moats
“The problem with DeepSeek is it indicates a direction towards total commoditization, which means that your flaming money defense does not work, right? And it will just be everywhere.”
Sam Lessin: AI valuations are fragile because they rely on AGI narratives
“The value of AI is AGI meme-y. Like, it's not, like, it loses a show of money, but it's, like, it's okay, because, like, AGI, right? It's very memetically driven. But the problem is that, like, it's a very binary zero or infinity value, and so it's extremely s…”
Lessin: Enterprises are pausing AI spend increases due to DeepSeek efficiency
“We've done a lot of reporting at the information about businesses that sort of say, you know, we're not increasing our spend right now because we're getting efficiency gains from deep seek and all these other models.”
Jessica Lessin: DeepSeek is losing a ton of money, just less than rivals
“So, like, they are losing a ton of money, but they're just losing a little bit less money than everyone else is losing.”
Morin: DeepSeek validates Meta's open-source strategy by feeding advances back
“This DeepSeek thing is exactly what we were talking about, that by releasing Llama, you know, DeepSeek surely used it, and many others, sounds like, and the fruits of that win come back to Meta, like, overnight, right? And they can plug it back in and make mor…”
Sam Lessin: Nvidia lost $600M in market cap post-DeepSeek
“Our guess was 10%, and we guessed three hundred million. It was actually closer to six hundred million.”
Morin: DeepSeek's paper unifies fine-tuning and optimization in one RL equation
“They do have this one part of one of the papers that talks about a unified paradigm around reinforcement learning, which is pretty cool. They've got a Very beautiful piece of math that kind of brings together all these different fine tuning and optimization te…”