why aren't all 22 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Rauch: Nearly 70% of Vercel documentation traffic comes from coding agents
“Nearly 70% of traffic To Vercel docs is now coming from coding agents. 70% and only 30% of page views are coming from humans.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lessin: Vercel will struggle to monetize commoditized AI software creation
“If the marginal cost of building, it goes towards zero. And like, that's the general trend of history. My big concern for your company will be, you're not going to get paid enough for it. Right. Cause like it'll be commodity.”
Assertion Supported
Rauch: Vercel rerouted Dubai region after two AWS availability zones were droned
“Our region in Dubai got taken offline because of war. You know, two of our availability zones hosted by AWS were droned. So we had to reroute an entire region”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rauch: Generating software will win over searching for and procuring software
“Generating software, it was in competition now with Googling for software, but now generating software is not just in competition, it's going to win. It means that everyone can produce their own software for personal use or for enterprise use, because why woul…”
Disclosure
Rauch: Vercel candidates must explain how they would automate their own roles
“And so basically everyone at Vercel is now kind of like the steward of the agent, and that's their new job expectation. And now it's become part of our job screening, which actually forces the hiring manager to think about, I'm hiring a roboticist. I'm not hir…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Rauch: Customers Who Build on Vercel Never Need Cloudflare
“With Cloudflare, it's more like the meme of like, I don't think about you, because when customers build on Vercel, they never end up needing Cloudflare, but they're coming to us to build software, not to sort of like proxy it or whatnot.”
Disclosure
Rauch: Vercel aims to become the AWS of agentic infrastructure
“So that's the focus of the company right now build being the AWS of agentic infrastructure.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Rauch: Vercel Signups Are Growing 50% Month Over Month
“Our signups are growing by 50% month over month.”
Opinion
Lessin: Lowering software technical barriers only solves 10% of building businesses
“And I think there's some marginal advantage to it. But in my mind, that's like a five to 10% problem of like more great businesses, not like the 90% problem.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Rauch: Vercel mitigated a 150,000-IP botnet attack on prediction markets
“The largest attack that we saw, which we estimate was actually probably targeting some of our customers in the sort of like prediction market space for reasons that I can't fully share, but the attack was pretty sizable, a 150,000 APs, a globally distributed b…”
Opinion
Rauch: AWS and Azure require weeks and experts for basic setup
“If you use the, like, foundational cloud infrastructure today, like AWS or Azure, it's really, really difficult to turn your idea into reality. It'll take you on team of experts, and it'll take you weeks just to set up the foundations.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Rauch: Vercel routes customer data queries through an internal AI agent
“In the past, Questions about customers would happen through, maybe there is a Salesforce account open, and the data team, the data integration, and if it's a very complex question, I have to ask a data analyst. All of that is going through an agent now.”
Disclosure
Rauch: Vercel Uses a 'Zero AI' Interview to Test Raw Candidate Abilities
“And for that, we actually do a zero AI interview and I basically need a platform for the zero AI interview with clearly detection.”
Insight
Rauch: Data analyst agents must push back and correct company terminology
“One of the things about a data analyst agent is that it should correct you in your terminology. If a Brit comes into Vercel and says, tell me how many weekly active users we have. Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait. At Vercel, we have weekly active developers …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dave Morin: In six months, developers will deploy to Vercel in minutes
“It was very hard for him to understand GitHub and there's all these like, Intricate things that are very nerdy about how to interact with these tools, but they're not that complicated and will just get eliminated from the process. And so, you know, it's gotta …”
Opinion
Rauch: Selling domain names is a terrible business
“We sell domain names, which is actually a terrible business, but we understand the psychology of creators, which is that again, our goal is to go from zero to one as fast as possible with the least amount of latency.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Rauch: Google estimates there are four million React engineers globally
“For what we do, which is react, which is like the front end. There's four million is the best estimate we get from Google and for creating interfaces, which is very much like a design thing.”
Disclosure
Rauch: Vercel hired a 17-year-old whose offer was signed by his mother
“Today, we gave an offer or we finalized an the offer got signed by a mother. Why? Because we hire someone that's 17 years old, that we went through the trouble of, like, doing it lawfully, obviously, and having his parents approve, because this person is so ov…”
Assertion Contradicted
Rauch: Vercel has seen a 5x increase in valuation
“We have a five X, I guess.”
Assertion Supported
Morin: Vercel is valued at around $9 billion to $10 billion
“Now we're talking nine, 10, something like that.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Rauch: Vercel Processes Hundreds of Billions of Requests Monthly
“We do hundreds of billions of requests per month, and we host some of the largest websites on the internet and some of the smallest websites on the internet.”
Assertion Supported
Rauch: Vercel Hosted Polymarket and Washington Post During 2024 Election
“In fact, in terms of the election, we hosted the election microsites for Washington post. We hosted polymarket.com, which was extremely hot this election, like quite literally hot in terms of like, How many servers, how much infrastructure it took to help them…”