Anthropic

“And suddenly you've got this problem that I was reading about this week where Anthropix changing the name of their bots. They're creating 10 more bots. Developers are having to, like, you know, block this bot and that bot and this name and that name. It's a bu…”

“I do buy that like anthropic or open AI might have a big play in the enterprise world, but for the consumer world of AI, those two have to be the winners.”

“Like at the rate they're having to raise capital and at the unprofitability of their business models, they can only increase prices from here.”

“It was Claude Sonnet that caused this to happen. Like it was to put a fine point on it. If it were not for Sonnet, this software engineering breakthrough, I don't think would be happening right now. So you can like literally go to the day that model was publis…”

“I think you can actually trace the act, the true moment that the change happened to the Claude Sonnet, Anthropics Claude model called Sonnet, 3.5. That was the real moment when things, I think it was the inflection moment where suddenly the code that this mode…”

“We've also done a series of stories recently, the information that have shown Roadbox, OpenAI and Anthropoc have hit in training. Not that they can't get through them, they work and, you know, but there are things that aren't working that we're working, right?”

“All the developers that, you know, are, we're looking at investing in you, you're seeing it as the API that everybody's using. People talk about using the other ones, but, you know, despite Anthropic maybe having better software engineering models or Elon buil…”

“Oh, this is Anthropic, Harvey, Glean, OpenAI, and Writer. Perplexity is at more than a 150 X. They would be the outlier. And I believe public SaaS is about an eight X.”

“The CEO of Anthropix said, he said, In the next three to six months, AI is probably gonna be able to write 90% of all code. And in 12 months, nearly all code may be generated by AI.”

“They should just probably buy Anthropic.”

“The problem is Anthropik's biggest investors are Amazon and Google, so that's why it's probably not gonna happen.”

“These will be public companies. Absolutely. And maybe sooner rather than later.”

“And it's pretty mind-blowing how powerful this tool is and how it will just go and re-architect your whole thing, make all the right directories, write all the code, ask you for input when it needs it.”

“We reported yesterday the information that Anthropic is at more than four billion in ARR”

“ChatGPT, you know, ChatGPT, by the way, like, and Anthropic, like, they're making a lot of money, but they're not making enough money to fund the capital that they're raising. And so they have to turn to advertising sooner or later.”

“Anthropic recently said its gross profit margin from selling AI models and clawed directly to customers was 60% and moving towards 70, but this doesn't account for a lot of other shit.”

“I think Anthropic probably does it before OpenAI because they need it more, right? So if you put the need before, although I think Google and Amazon will continue to fund them.”

“Sort of the north mission because of OpenAI and Anthropic all being over there. That's like the hot spot.”

“I think Anthropic actually has on the enterprise side of the equation... I think has definitely a lead here, or at least reputationally, I think it does.”

“Every six months, OpenAI and Anthropic are just testing the private markets. And at some point, the answer will not come back as here's essentially all this free money”

“I mean, it looks like Anthropix, something like, 20 x oversubscribes still.”

“In the back channels, you've got the LPs of funds with primary positions in Anthropics selling derivatives, and then their LPs selling derivatives. There's like many derivatives being sold across the entire Anthropic equity chain.”

“If that's true, then the top two coding models Gemini and Anthropic are trained on TPUs, not GPUs. And I think that's a really big deal.”

“It's coding. It's all code.”

“I will say they don't give them to us. Like people always come up to me. They're like, oh, doing open AI's dirty work for them by publishing their numbers. I'm like, yeah, not really. But so VCs assume that these companies like beg us to do this. I can, I will…”

“I think I've said this here by, you know, end of next year. Beginning of the next, real chance of SpaceX IPO, OpenAI IPO, Anthropic IPO.”

“Speaking of Apple, I think they come back next year, both in the AI realm, like they're going to make either one big acquisition, like an topic.”

“Their choice to focus on software engineering was a huge breakthrough.”

“Gemini's gonna do this. Anthropoc's gonna do this.”

“Claude Code makes it the final boss.”

“I actually do kind of trust Anthropic, but not as much. I definitely don't trust, you know, OpenAI.”

“Anthropic says no one will be doing software engineering 12 months from now.”

“Ok, so yes, Anthropic and the Pentagon are fighting over terms of use. Meanwhile, XAI and everyone else are tripping over themselves to get these government contracts.”

“Something would have to change in a dramatic fashion for Claude to not cross OpenAI in the next two months. Like, something weird would have to happen.”

“This sure looks like a marketing strategy to me, not a leak strategy.”

“Well, no, the cloud code thing I think is like a legit fuck up, right? Like you don't leak your source code.”

“For example, I don't know if they've adapted yet, but Anthropic for a long time was not playing ball with agents.md. You could only call their instructions claude.md.”

“By the way, one prediction that I, that I'll make is that it's going to continue to get more and more complicated for them to sustain the subscription thing, because it's almost an impossible problem.”

“Because like one of the other things that we're seeing a lot of is that, you know, if Anthropic decides that they need to shift their business model or whatever, whatever intelligence you're using underneath your agent, you still want its soul and its memories…”

“Agentic workloads are something that I think nobody was prepared to handle from an infrastructure perspective.”

“And days later, Anthropic announced that they are shutting off access for Claude Pro and Max users who are Open Call users to use their product.”

“I I've been in board meetings a lot recently with companies who are like, yes, we're fully moved over to Anthropic. And it's like, they show the chart of when everything moved over. And it was like in December”

“And Anthropic this week, I heard, is also now raising at an eight hundred billion.”

“The other thing I hear that wasn't obvious to me is how much this will be seen, this IPO will be seen as a bellwether for Anthropic and OpenAI”

“And I gotta say by and large, and it's anecdotal, but there are enough of them. They are very, very excited about these companies and they're selling down their mag seven positions a little bit to, or preparing to like go all in on these companies.”

“There was a memo that was leaked from OpenAI, an OpenAI memo that was leaked. I think it was in OpenAI's interest for this memo to be out there. I also think it was written in a way where they wanted it to be out there, where they came after Anthropic. Both fo…”

“But I also think at some point pricing will play a way, way bigger role in this. And these total anthropic and open AI bills, like don't acknowledge that for many, many things you're going to use cheap models.”

“Anthropic has major capacity issues.”

“The Catholic Church's narrative that was so successful for multiple, whatever, many hundreds of years was a Doomer narrative, and that the anthropic Doomer narrative basically uses the exact same fear trick in order to create a similar narrative, and that mayb…”

“Even just the returns that they're going to see from their SpaceX and Anthropic investment is insane.”

“Anthropic passed open AI.”

“Apparently Google Cloud is up because of Anthropic.”

“Anthropic is so underserved in compute that they're buying, like, in last minute deals and on the smart market and all that kind of stuff, which is bad for their margin, but is good for the providers.”

“We have seen perhaps the strangest AI compute deal to date, which is Anthropic Colossus. So SpaceX, Elon Musk. Have given over their first Colossus project. 100%. Not like 40%.”

“And then we charted of the, we just had earnings, of the backlogs in deals for Microsoft, Oracle, Google, and Amazon, what percentage are OpenAI's commitment and Anthropi's commitment? It's together, they're about half, ok?”

“The anthropic engineers will go to middle America and they're going to need a large security force.”

“The entire message is that AI is so good. It's going to AGI and take care of itself. And if that's true, then starting a deployment company is the worst idea you could possibly have because it will be deploying itself In two years.”

“Guys, Anthropic is getting the compute. They did deal with Akamai.”

“I do think I'd rather own Anthropic at a trillion than SpaceX at a trillion.”

“Anthropic will, they have line of sight to a hundred billion in revenue, like, no question, kind of. Like, I don't, I mean, they're not gonna, like, hit that this year or whatever, but, like, that's not a crazy thing for them, and their growth is accelerating,…”

“So you have these two AI companies that in really short order are going to be trying to convince public investors they're worth more than a trillion dollars, and they're going to have extraordinary revenue growth to back that up.”

“The number one winning company right now in AI, I think, is Anthropic. And they're actually shockingly focused, right? Like, it's cloud code. Very pure play.”

“And it's just the truth. Like Anthropic is making all of the money and none of the companies being built on top of it are making revenue that exceeds their revenue. And so you've got a really serious platform problem.”

“We're going to circle back to this because we have a lot, and I just think Anthropic must, which is, by the way, closing another round as we speak, must be in the mix, but everyone is feeling good.”

“What people are going to view is like, I might be out of a job, so I better own an anthropic stock, right? Like it's going to be the, and they're going to hate it, but they're going to do it. Cause it's like, that's their hedge. So it is a hate invest, but the…”

“Well, to be clear, a trillion is the top of the current Anthropik price and the by far bottom of the current SpaceX price.”

“Did you guys see Karpathy went to Anthropic?”

“Wildly expensive, right? Like compared to- Five X. Five X Google.”

“While you have the fight between Anthropic and DoD over these various guardrails that Anthropic was insisting on, it's still the case that much of the national security establishment relies on and loves Anthropic models, and they want to keep using them, and t…”

“We have the whole scenario now where there is a model that exists called Mythos. Nobody really has it except for Anthropic, and who knows if the actual real model as opposed to distilled versions of it that they give access to will ever kind of come out, and m…”

“If Anthropic were to fail, that would have a massive cascading effect on the entire economy and AI and data centers in general are what is literally keeping this economy going.”

“Anthropic is also up against scaling problems where they are unable to scale their downtime is It's really, really bad. You can just go look at their website and look, they've got demand through the roof, product market fit through the roof. Right. And so the …”

“So I'm just curious how you reconcile what you were saying about the costs and everything with just the unprecedented growth that Anthropic has seen and the like flippening with open AI where it has just completely overtaken open AI from a revenue perspective.”

“It's actually the story because the Pope shouldn't have had anybody on stage with him, let alone, you know, one of many of these different researchers providers. And so I really think that the church was taken advantage of, and it became a marketing moment for…”

“So obviously the future is not going to be like, you just send all of your stuff to the most expensive model, right? So this stuff should rationalize really quickly. And the fact that it's so frictionless means that it should rationalize financially way faster…”

“Anthropic tokens cost like a hundred times as much as like the open source tokens, right?”

“Ironically, the fact that there's no demonstrable, measurable ROI is in some ways this weird moat for a while, because you're like, well, I can pay a 100th as much, but I can't actually measure the value of this token versus that token in from an ROI perspecti…”

“I think all of that is smoke and mirrors. And I think they're probably on a very conventional IPO timeframe, putting them at October ish alongside anthropic.”

“Well, I think that if you're anyone other than OpenAI and Anthropic, you are now an arms dealer in the AI race, right? You're either selling access or you're renting access to your giant H 100, H 200 clusters, right? Or you are giving people access to the mode…”

“Anthropic stole the fear message from them. Like, they out, Anthropic outfeared them, which was originally OpenAI's strategy.”

“The government's now said That foreign nationals inside Anthropic can't have access to it.”

“They're gonna Set the benchmark, you know, they're going to set the roadmap, the playbook for anthropic and open AI, which are waiting in the wings and privately whispering timeframes that are quite sooner rather than later.”

“There's a bunch of people who are gonna make a ton of money on anthropic purely because they didn't have the time To sell.”

“And I think you'll start to see the revenues shifting quite a bit over the next six to 12 months.”

“Everyone that I've been interacting with and many people across the open clock community are switching it out for Opus four dot eight and they don't notice a difference.”

“He's not a real company like Google or Open or Meta or someone who actually five percent is meaningful, and he's not even winning the pure AI race. It's an anthropic is.”

“Anthropic and open AI are worried about the Chinese models undercutting them.”

“None of them are real companies that warrant the valuations they have.”

“This is what I don't like about our moment in history, is I don't think we're playing capitalism anymore. Like, I think we're playing some, like, political capture game that is way less interesting than capitalism, right?”

“Anthropic will go public. I would be shocked if they're not public in September.”

“A real company is very simple. A real company is a company you can sue, and you get paid if you win the lawsuit.”

“But anthropic is profitable.”

“This isn't a technical commentary, but from like a business and economics perspective, I think all the big labs are fucked.”

“Everyone's just trying to say like, we are not anthropic in some way because anthropic is winning and anthropic also has some of the biggest problems in Washington.”

“So much of what anthropic does is guided by anger and spite towards open AI and the people involved in open AI.”

“And you're gonna go into epic wealth generation Anthropic IPO, which isn't going to help the issue. And then same for open AI. So I don't know how you fix the image.”

“Anthropic decided to be Microsoft and to become an enterprise company. My understanding is that they focus entirely on their largest enterprise customers and that they don't care about press. They don't care about smaller enterprise customers or small business…”

“It's the Anthropic Trust. It's just a group of, I think there are five, but they've only filled three people who pick the board members, and one of them is Ben Bernanke, fun fact.”

“I keep hearing anecdotally that they're having trouble getting customers to switch from anthropic, even on a credible terms”

“And this trust is also going to maintain some of that power in an IPO, which will also give the co-founders super voting shares.”

“Her romantic turned business relationship with Eric Schmidt that led to the, his investment in Danthropic to crossing paths briefly with Jeffrey Epstein in terms of pitching him on her company.”

“I think you're going to see a retraction in the market. Like you're going to see we've built out a dramatic amount of infrastructure. A huge, you know, three trillion, four trillion dollars of capex has gone into this, and everyone rushed in, and they're tryin…”

“You may also want to know the Anthropic IPOs around the corner, so this may seem like a relevant fact.”

“My general working thesis was like, you should probably just invest in anything that Enables or extends like Anthropic and OpenAI's revenue. And then the hedge to that would be open source. So just go over there and the app layer stuff by and large do not enab…”

“Sam, we've always known that Anthropic is the anti-free speech company.”

“Here's the really interesting insight I thought, which is customer service might be what matters. Meaning like most humans, like your mom, if something breaks an anthropic, there is never going to be anyone to call. It's why they can have like 12 employees and…”