The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 20 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Dave Morin: Instagram Is a Declining Asset Meta Is Merely Harvesting
“You know, which to me suggests that this asset is, is now a declining asset. Like they're now in a position where they want to just harvest it, monetize it as much as possible while moving on to the next thing, which is probably threads fine.”
Lessin: Threads Will Not Kill Twitter, Platforms Will Coexist via Cross-Posting
“I just don't think we're going to get to a place where it's like they kill Twitter. What you're going to get to is a place where it's also a text-based social network-y interesting thing with a lot of cross-posting.”
Lessin: Nobody Likes Twitter, So Copying It Has No Backlash
“The nice part about ripping off Twitter, if that's what this is, which it is is no one likes Twitter. So no one's like, oh, you ripped off Twitter.”
Sam Lessin: Threads will succeed as a platform but won't kill Twitter
“I actually am pretty optimistic. I think this will work. Now, whether it kills Twitter or just becomes yet another place you post things, I think is TBD. Like, I don't, it's hard to see it killing Twitter”
Morin: Mainstream audience will be on Threads within three years
“I think that the mainstream audience is going to be on threads and it's going to be powerful. And so I think to Sam's point, that distribution, Advantage can't be ignored and it will be very powerful three years from now, no question.”
Sam Lessin: Crises and competition will prevent Twitter from ever reaching $100B
“I mean, I just don't think it's I don't think it's existential for Twitter. But I do think it's existential for Twitter ever being a hundred billion dollar company, right?”
Morin: X Is the Only Viable Platform for Tech Industry Conversations
“If you work in the tech business, if you're a technologist, it's where the conversation is. And so it's not on threads. It's not on Reddit. Like it's definitely not in Facebook group. Where else would you go? It's the only place that you can go. To have that c…”
Jessica Lessin: Threads will not be a huge part of Meta's story
“I don't think the, I think the product is quite good, but I think if you look at the arc of Meta, I don't think Threads is going to be a huge part of the story.”
Morin: Threads will become a mainstream Instagram community, not tech VC
“No, I don't think I will. I don't think it's going to be a neat, like a techie BC community. I think it's going to be, like, a more mainstream Instagram community.”
Dave Morin: Meta needs 18% of Instagram to match Twitter's size
“All they need to do is convert, I guess, about 18% of Instagram to threads, and they'll have an app the size of Twitter.”
Brit Morin: Taylor Swift's New Heights podcast drove 500 million views rapidly
“According to measurement company Mondo Metrics, Taylor Swift and New Heights reached half a billion views across all of the podcast episode across social media in under 24 hours. Three hundred and seventy nine million on Instagram, sixty one million on X, fift…”
Sam Lessin: Social network culture accelerates as users reinforce tone
“There's, like, a tone set by the network and, like, the community, and then whatever that tone is, it will just accelerate, right? Because people feed on each other, right?”
Lessin: Universal "God content" across Threads, X, and Instagram is impossible
“If you can find a piece of content of performance art that is loved on threads and acts and Instagram, that is, like, a God content piece. Like, I'm not sure it's doable, right? Because the networks are so specific.”
Jessica Lessin: Biden's Withdrawal Sparked Internal Meta Debate Over Threads
“The Threads No Politics policy hitting some internal debate, so we don't have to go deep into Threads, but we've talked at length about both how it kind of emerged as this breath of fresh air from the fierce debates on X, Especially around politics, and its wh…”
Morin: Meta is pushing Threads harder than any asset in a decade
“More aggressively distributing threads than any asset they've ever distributed in maybe over five years, maybe 10 years.”
Dave Morin: Threads' Biggest Problem Is Lacking Native Direct Messaging
“I think their biggest problem is they need DMS, you know, like this whole, like punt me back over to Instagram to do my DMS is just like, not right.”
Lessin: Threads will monetize terribly because text monetizes poorly
“Now it does mean it'll monetize much worse, right? Like text monetizes terribly. So it's not like, I don't think it's hard for me to imagine it being financially like deeply meaningful, but I think it'll be a great application.”
Lessin: Threads' Social Graph Will Rapidly Diverge From Instagram's
“And then I think what'll happen is, is like, it'll just evolve in a different direction, and that'll be good. Like, the graphs will rapidly diverge”