why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lessin: Balaji's bottoms-up community journalism vision will fail over legal defense costs
“This is one of the really strong anti-substack theories, which is like, you can't as an individual support these lawsuits. Like you can't afford it. It's actually quite expensive to be in the news gathering. It isn't quite risky. And so if you're going to do i…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Jessica Lessin: Writers investing in Substack's equity crowdfunding won't make money
“And I do have to say, I think the, like, pattern of people being duped To think, like, equity is gonna be worth something in the vast majority of cases is very sad, so. I got very mad when, like, Substack tried to convince its writers to invest in Substack, be…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lessin: Newsletter Platforms Like Substack Have No Long-Term Margins
“And the problem is, is, like, those are, that's shared infrastructure, but just shared infrastructure, and it's too easy to copy, right? And so, like, there's just, like, no margin long-term in it.”
Insight
Sam Lessin: Substack's Only Long-Term Edge Is Internal Discovery and Advertising
“The only way they can have a competitive edge long-term is if they become a closed loop, effectively advertising for newsletters, right?”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lessin: Over 50 Substack Writers Make More Than $1M Annually
“They have 50 people, more than 50, who make more than a million dollars a year, and they get 10% of their revenue.”
Insight
Jessica Lessin: Media Trust Is Fragmenting From Legacy Outlets To Individuals
“The trust, our trust nodes are just fragmenting and they're, we, this has been the trend we trust. You know, sub stack writers and individual publications and our friends in addition to in some cases, you know, more legacy publications.”