why aren't all 18 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sam Lessin: Solana will surpass Ethereum in market capitalization
“I think Solana flips Ethereum.”
Opinion
Yakovenko: Crypto Will Cap Around 100M High-Spending Users, Not 8 Billion
“I think there is just a set of users that are kind of heavy users, and that might be a limited, that's not going to be eight billion people. I don't know how big that set is, but it could be like A hundred million. Right now, that sounds like a small fraction …”
Disclosure
Sam Lessin: I am personally short Ethereum and long Solana
“You know, I'm very sure the Ethereum world. I'm very long. Dave Morin: Solana. Sam Lessin: It's a personal book.”
Opinion
Sam Lessin: Solana is the most important crypto alternative; short Ethereum
“And I think is probably the most important cryptocurrency outside of Bitcoin. I'm a short on ETH long on Solana”
Disclosure
Morin: Offline was a seed investor in Solana, believes it is superior
“I think you and I and all of us here on this pod have always thought, you know, that Solana is the superior technology. It's the most scalable. We were seed investors.”
Insight
Lessin: Ethereum's high costs dictated NFTs, while Solana enables high-velocity trading
“The medium is the message and Ethereum is slow and expensive. Right. And so if you think about like the NFT thing was primarily ETH and ETH derivative based, right? It's slow and expensive. So like you had a different set of behaviors. Solana is fast and effic…”
Assertion Supported
Yakovenko: Most meme coins launch on Solana, peaking over 100k daily
“At this point, most, but I think Ethereum has probably the most valuable ones, but by sheer number of launches per day, I think it's like, was peak over a 100,000 per day. I think it may be like 20 to 50,000 right now.”
What-if
Sam Lessin: Solana founders should have personally delivered their anti-woke message
“It's exactly to a message that if, like, Roger Anatoly, both of whom are great, had, like, gotten up, or one of the leaders and said, this is what I believe, I authentically believe this, I stand behind it actually would have been basically fine.”
Opinion
Dave Morin: Solana's meme coin transaction volume proves its underlying technology works
“As a believer in Solana from the beginning as well, like, it's amazing to see Solana performing at the level that it's performing, right? Like, this might not be the use case that everybody loves, but the sheer scale and volume of what happened over the weeken…”
Disclosure
Slow Ventures' $400,000 seed check into Solana is now worth $2.2 billion
“The 400,000 bucks we put into Solana, I think is right now worth 2.2 billion, right?
Like, you know, and like, we distributed well, but not that well, right?”
Disclosure
Sam Lessin: Personally very long Ethereum, Solana is now technically viable
“I'll talk my own book on this for a second as a seed investor is like, it actually works, right? Like Solana as an ecosystem can actually do this now, which even two years ago, it couldn't like no one really could, you know, I'm very sure the Ethereum world. I…”
Assertion Supported
Yakovenko: Solana's Seeker phone has 150,000 pre-orders and ships August
“Seeker, the device, we got 150,000 pre-orders and it's shipping August.”
Assertion Supported
Morin: Trump coin on Solana processed $40 billion in transactions
“The Trump coin, which was built on Solana was, you know, doing forty billion in transactions.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lessin: Solana has become the center of meme coin energy
“Solana has become the place where almost all the energy is around us and specifically there are apps like something called pump.fun”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Sam Lessin: Solana reportedly traded 10% of NASDAQ's volume
“I think Raj said they traded 10% of the volume of the NASDAQ.”
Prediction Held up
Sam Lessin predicts a Solana ETF will launch in 2025
“I'd say Solana ETF, which will be great.”
Assertion Partly supported
Yakovenko: Minting a meme coin on Solana costs about 20 cents
“It costs like 20 cents to like create a meme coin because it is just sending a message, right?”
Assertion Supported
Morin: Vine founder's memecoin hit $300M market cap in one day
“And so the founder, who's very talented product guy decided to launch a meme coin last week on on pump.fun, which builds meme coins on top of Solana. And, you know, in a day's time, it went from zero to, let's see, it ended the day somewhere in the two hundred…”