The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rauch: Generating software will win over searching for and procuring software
“Generating software, it was in competition now with Googling for software, but now generating software is not just in competition, it's going to win. It means that everyone can produce their own software for personal use or for enterprise use, because why woul…”
Guillermo Rauch Apr 10, 2026 ▶ 18:47 Vercel CEO: 70% of Our Traffic Is Now AI Agents "Nobody Was Prepared" | Anthropic, OpenClaw, OpenAI
Insight
Morin: Concurrent AI Agents Require Substantial Local Desktop Memory
“In order to run multiple agents at once, your Mac has to manage each thread, right? So if you're running, you know, one, two, three, 10, 100 agents at the same time, whether they're running through Codex, Pi, OpenClaw, or whatever, you have to have memory and …”
Dave Morin Jul 31, 2026 ▶ 36:30 The Lilian Weng Saga, Mental Health Essay Then OpenAI | Meta's AI Ad, China Cracks DUV
Assertion Supported
Brit Morin: Sam Altman offers enterprises two free months of Codex tokens
“Sam Altman today tweeted that enterprises who want to move to Codex can get their first two months of tokens free.”
Brit Morin May 15, 2026 ▶ 14:04 Google's AI-First Laptop, Meta's Spy Games, AI Monks in Middle America · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Morin: Only 4 million people use GitHub Codex
“There are only four million people using codex. That's like no one, literally no one. Is using AI engineering tools. No one in the grand context of the world.”
Dave Morin May 8, 2026 ▶ 29:56 Why the Met Gala Hates Tech, Elon vs OpenAI Drama, and the Rise of Chinese AI Models · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Only single-digit millions currently use coding AI tools like Claude Code
“Nobody uses, you know, Claude code and codex in the grand scheme of the internet. There's like single digit millions people using it. They're incredibly technical.”
Dave Morin May 29, 2026 ▶ 32:10 Normal People Don't Want AI Agents (And Silicon Valley Can't Accept It) · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Morin: OpenClaw Users Route to Claude Opus 4.5 Over Codex for Personality
“In the open clock community, people actually choose to route to Claude particularly Opus Four Five, because they like the personality better than, say, Codex.”
Dave Morin Feb 20, 2026 ▶ 49:34 OpenClaw vs Meta vs OpenAI: The Personal Agent Wars Heat Up · More or Less Podcast
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