The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Insight
Lessin: Startups take strategic and hedge fund money when real VCs pass
“Then you have a bunch of strategics and family offices because no smart people would invest in this, right? Like that's like how you end up with strategics and like hedge funds is when like the serious venture people are like, absolutely not.”
Sam Lessin Feb 21, 2025 ▶ 52:26 #87: SKIMS To Revive Nike? AI Drama & The Satoshi Mystery · More or Less Podcast
Insight
Morin: Apple-style product launches cannot work in the social media era
“You can't do Apple style launches in the social media era.”
Dave Morin Feb 21, 2025 ▶ 48:18 #87: SKIMS To Revive Nike? AI Drama & The Satoshi Mystery · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lessin: Current generation of AI hardware startups will go to zero
“This whole generation is going to get wiped out. Everyone's going to zero. Dave, you're losing money. I'm losing money by proxy sucks, whatever.”
Sam Lessin May 24, 2024 ▶ 8:20 #48: Move Fast (But Don't) Break Silicon Valley · More or Less Podcast
Opinion
Lessin: Humane was the most predictable startup failure imaginable
“It was the most predictable startup failure you could imagine.”
Sam Lessin Feb 21, 2025 ▶ 44:37 #87: SKIMS To Revive Nike? AI Drama & The Satoshi Mystery · More or Less Podcast
Opinion
Morin: Humane's ex-Apple team is arguably tech's most valuable talent pool
“One of the things that they have done is they've recruited an enormously talented team of many, many, many, many, many ex Apple people, probably arguably one of the most valuable teams out there right now.”
Dave Morin May 24, 2024 ▶ 5:41 #48: Move Fast (But Don't) Break Silicon Valley · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Held up
Jessica Lessin: Humane will not sell for $1 billion
“I do not think it will sell for a billion dollars.”
Jessica Lessin May 24, 2024 ▶ 4:11 #48: Move Fast (But Don't) Break Silicon Valley · More or Less Podcast
Disclosure
Brit Morin: We lost about $100,000 investing in Humane
“But we lost like a hundred K, like not like a lot of.”
Brit Morin Feb 21, 2025 ▶ 50:32 #87: SKIMS To Revive Nike? AI Drama & The Satoshi Mystery · More or Less Podcast
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