The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 13 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Lessin: Polymarket directed influencers to fake trades and earnings
“But Polymarket has been directing influencers to make fake videos about fake trades and reporting fake earnings for their influencer program.”
Lessin: Kalshi and Polymarket will be heavily hamstrung by regulation
“I think the prediction markets are gonna really be hamstrung by regulation and face really tough years next year, specifically Kalshi and Polymarket.”
Sam Lessin: Prediction markets must use real money to matter
“Well, we've talked about this like six times, and it has to be real money. It's not a thing if it's not real money.”
Lessin: Polymarket Odds on California Wealth Tax Passing Jumped Significantly
“The polymarket odds of it passing have jumped significantly.”
Sam Lessin: A Polymarket-Run News Outlet Would "Crush"
“I actually think the best, maybe, you know who should start a newspaper is Polymarket. Polymarket news would crush.”
Rauch: Crypto apps should treat decentralized infrastructure as an invisible implementation detail
“What I saw in Polymarket and starting to see in a lot of other companies is give value to the customer and use decentralized infrastructure under the hood, but don't lead with the decentralized infrastructure. That's just an implementation detail.”
Rauch: Crypto apps succeed when decentralized infrastructure is hidden under the hood
“What I saw in Polymarket and starting to see in a lot of other companies is give value to the customer and use decentralized infrastructure under the hood, but don't lead with the decentralized infrastructure. That's just an implementation detail.”
Rauch: Vercel mitigated a 150,000-IP botnet attack on prediction markets
“The largest attack that we saw, which we estimate was actually probably targeting some of our customers in the sort of like prediction market space for reasons that I can't fully share, but the attack was pretty sizable, a 150,000 APs, a globally distributed b…”
Britt Morin: Women represent less than a quarter of Kalshi and Polymarket users
“Women are only like Less than a quarter of Kalshi and Polymarket right now really hasn't like struck with most of the women I know.”
Lessin: Polymarket Odds of Elon Musk Beating OpenAI Have Tanked
“After Altman's latest testimony, the odds that Elon wins this thing have tanked, according to Polymarket and the prediction market.”
Polymarket gives Elon Musk a 41% chance of winning against OpenAI
“Polymarket gives Elon a 41% chance of winning the case.”
Lessin: Polymarket Launched Its Own Branded Physical Bar
“Polymarket launched a bar, I think, to do, like, it's literally a Polymarket bar.”
Rauch: Vercel Hosted Polymarket and Washington Post During 2024 Election
“In fact, in terms of the election, we hosted the election microsites for Washington post. We hosted polymarket.com, which was extremely hot this election, like quite literally hot in terms of like, How many servers, how much infrastructure it took to help them…”