The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Sam Lessin: OpenAI's Sora is not going to work
“That, like, that was, like I mean, I understand it's still probably number one in the free app store or something, but, like, it's not gonna work.”
Sam Lessin: Current LLM applications are not viable standalone businesses
“Like when you back it all out, you're like, none of these are actually good businesses. They're kind of like product and growth shims towards something, but no one can really tell you what that something exactly is, right? Or how it's going to work as a busine…”
Lessin: OpenAI's Sora was a flash in the pan and is dead
“If anything, Sora, I think as we all called, was a flash in the pan and is dead.”
Dave Morin: OpenAI's obvious social play was group chat, not Sora
“I always assumed that one day I would wake up and I would open ChatGPT and it would ask me to upload my contacts and then I would be able to use ChatGPT with my friends, right? Like the four of us could use ChatGPT and have ChatGPT in the middle of the convers…”
Brit Morin: OpenAI will improve Sora and regain user engagement
“I bet they add improvements, though, and it gets like another, they get another hook on the line.”
Sam Lessin: Public prompts prevent creators from building moats on Sora
“Those prompts are all public, Brit. So no one can create a competitive advantage in the content of the prompts. Like if anything, the whole design is then to rip them.”
Dave Morin: Consumer-ready rapid AI video generation is years away
“In order for this to be, you know, something that consumers use to edit a one minute video in a very short time period, like we're talking years before that's going to be real.”