why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Dave Morin: Carta's VC report is content marketing nonsense evaluating immature funds
“Like this Carta report is kind of content marketing nonsense because these funds are just too young to have any meaningful metrics or DPI in the first place.”
Assertion Partly supported
Carta data shows top 5% of seed rounds exceed $175M valuations
“Now the top five percent of seed rounds are topping a hundred and seventy five million dollar valuations.”
Assertion Contradicted
Top 10% of startup valuations are 200% to 300% above 2021 levels
“The top 10% of startup valuations for Series D, C, B, et cetera, are now like 200 to 300% higher than 20 21.”
Assertion Supported
Carta data shows median seed rounds reaching $45 million valuations
“And even the 75th percentile or 50th percentile, we're talking about like forty-five million dollar seed rounds, which is insane.”
Assertion Supported
Brit Morin: Seed-to-Series A graduation rates halved from 30.6% to 15%
“In 2018, there were 30.6% of companies that raised a seed round and then made it through series A within two years. Now that's only 15% in the last two years.”
Assertion Supported
Lessin: Carta Report Shows Venture Funds Failing to Return Capital to LPs
“CARTA, the company that helps people
track their cap tables and has other sorts of data and occasionally gets in trouble, but that is a topic for another day.
Released a really interesting report that basically said venture capital funds are not returning mon…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2027
Sam Lessin: Carta will relaunch secondary trading in two to three years
“They're going to wait two to three years until everyone forgets. And then they'll do it again. This is not over. They're just going to wait two to three years.”
Assertion Supported
Brit Morin: Carta startup shutdowns jumped from 170 to 212 in Q3 2023
“We have seen an enormous amount of startups that either went bankrupt or dissolved or otherwise shut down in Q three of 23. It went from a 170 in Q two to 212 in Q three.”