OpenAI

“This entire generation of AI models, from my perspective, has basically all been illegally trained, right? It's like, there's all sorts of rumors that are flying on the tech community about how a lot of the kind of more image-based you know, large language, la…”

“There was a report today that the chat GPT usage or engagement is down quite a bit, which we've been hearing in the back channels, not just about GPT, but many of the other AI chatbots.”

“We have information just broke a story that they hired a new IP, no, sorry, OpenAI hired a new IP lawyer who used to work in Microsoft, so go figure that one out.”

“So Microsoft, who's ten billion dollars into open AI, gave it exclusive access to their IP, has decided in part because it's too expensive to run, they're going to build a cheaper functional enough version to have to power some of these applications.”

“Myself and my amazing colleagues at the Information Broker story recently that Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, and Johnny Ive, the former Apple designer and designer of the iPhone, Have been deep in conversations about building a hardware device together that k…”

“OpenAI is trying to raise money at 90.”

“I think it's, like, been a cute trick that a bunch of the incumbents to date, and then we'll call out OpenAI, for instance, has been saying, oh, we're the good guys, regulate AI, and you're like, yeah, like, of course, like, that trick is a little old, guys, r…”

“Do I think it's how people are going to want to consume their news? No”

“Basically they're going to use this to obviously drive their enterprise business when they make their money.”

“The fact that this thing is easy to make is not, in and of itself, make it a compelling product.”

“But I think that you also have to give OpenAI serious credit for being in just absolute beast mode right now. Like this is one of, I think the most impressive developer platform launches. Since maybe Facebook platform, if I do say so myself.”

“OpenAI has now swiped all these AI startups for sure, and being an AI startup is a bad idea, which has been my line for a while.”

“Meanwhile, Secretary Raimondo is telling me that all the big tech companies, OpenAI, Meta, Google, and so forth, are cooperating, are, and down to the level of agreeing to tell the government when they're running their next model.”

“For the sake of business, it would be great if Microsoft just inherited the people that want to work on this stuff and they go into a normal business structure where they're a hundred billion dollar piece of a three trillion dollar company. That's the safest o…”

“One, I think anytime you need a flow chart to explain how your board works and is hired, you're probably starting from a bad position.”

“I think LLMs like the really cool, very obvious applications. There'll be a lot of money made. I don't think it's like the second coming of anything. I just think it's like, Cool business cloud, two point O stuff.”

“I think the big winners on this are Microsoft, actually, despite the challenges of the eyes. It's Amazon. It's going to be Google.”

“I just think the Microsoft thing is gonna get really messy really fast with, like, The Microsoft shareholders, the public company, all the inter organizations. Like it's, I know Satya said it's going to be arm's length. I just don't buy into that.”

“This idea of wrapping A for-profit and a non-profit where the non-profit is, like, beholden to no one and somewhat religious, and the for-profit sits inside that was, like, hilarious, and was clearly intellectually a disaster, but everyone kind of looked the o…”

“The story's become Ilya, The fundamentalist versus Sam, the pragmatist who just wants to build a business, because the reality is Sam Altman, the founder, even as a, you know, private conference a year ago, not even a year ago, the story was not only is the o…”

“Sam is being painted by the media as like, The business person versus the fundamentalist, but he's like as fundamental as it gets. And so like, to me, it's very hard to like, imagine that being a healthy, stable situation for the future.”

“I don't think a lot of people are recognizing like he like hit a Hail Mary and he was Screwed. And like, frankly, I'm surprised that Microsoft and Sequoia and Thrive, like didn't do more board diligence when they were investing all this money to figure out lik…”

“Sam Altman doesn't just lead OpenAI. He runs or, you know, is, is hugely involved in Helios, a big nuclear project, in WorldCoin, big crypto project, He is one of the most prolific investors in Silicon Valley, and he was pursuing two side projects in recent mo…”

“Adam is one of the highest integrity people that I've ever worked with. He's a very principled person and he you know, he's a very deliberate, very rational very serious actor. He's a very serious person, and so it does bother me a little bit that there's a lo…”

“They've made the, you know AI, in particular the AGI technology into almost a sacred you know, they've almost deified this technology.”

“Sam Altman is stronger as an executive having effectively left Rome and then having everyone vote him back in with their feet as employees and the board caving, right? He's now stronger than he's ever been as a leader because he basically is at the head of an …”

“You know, what I also look to, if you look at last time there were major changes to copyright law and the DMCA and carving out section two 30 exemptions where tech companies were not liable, the law has definitely continued to bend to the will of the technolog…”

“The worst idea in the world, right. If you're a developer to say, Hey, maybe I have some proprietary data. I'm going to like stick it in to open AI or one of these platforms for what in return. And then by the way, I'm just giving them all the interaction data…”

“The thing with the GPT's launch is the economics of it make absolutely no sense for a developer, which means that, like, ultimately there's no chance That this will be a successful platform.”

“Even in the plan, there's not enough natural resources to use the chips and like all of the things that is part of this plan. It's like not even possible, basically, and would diminish a lot of the other types of needs we have for all of these types of materia…”

“When you're like, I want seven trillion dollars, right? Like, that is the statement of a religious leader, not a disciplined business person.”

“The two new products coming out of OpenAI, one being the agent, the other being a search engine.”

“In credit to OpenAI, I think the thing that OpenAI is best in the world at right now is not AI, it's marketing.”

“There's no stable configuration for the base models where there's like a hundred of them. There's either going to be Zero that make any money. So they all are worthless, right? Cause it like, cause it is everywhere. And like, for what it's worth, that's been m…”

“The problem with this is that open AI convinced everyone because they were a quote unquote nonprofit to let them have a bunch of data that they could work with that they otherwise would never have had access to. And like, that is super skeezy. Right. And like …”

“If Sam Altman hadn't gone back to OpenAI, this, he had a job offer to do exactly the same thing.”

“We saw it with Microsoft's huge, you know, ten billion dollar investment in OpenAI, huge portion of which isn't in cash. But it's in credits”

“So it's turtles all the way down, which is why, again, this industry will make a lot of money for the end users that are, like, getting value from these tools. But the actual tool business is going to be an utter bloodbath.”

“Like, they're all sitting here now saying, you know, do we take the relative pennies from OpenAI and Apple and everyone who wants to license our content? And I actually think, unfortunately, they are, because publishers are so scared about what any kind of dro…”

“I gotta tell you, Sam Altman, our business is not as good a business as the high-margin software business. Still a good business, but it's probably not worth a hundred billion dollars.”

“Going out and saying that you're going to steal the entire internet, steal all the content and then generate new content and claim fair use just seems, it seems beyond the pale to me and a little bit egregious.”

“There's information that lots and lots of people know. The clearing price for that information is precisely zero. Right? Like if lots of people know something, it doesn't matter how it gets on the internet or if open AI bids one cent for someone to tell them a…”

“Will it put OpenAI out of business? No, I don't think so, because like, They can fight these lawsuits. You know, there's not clear, like, other kind of regulatory stuff breathing down their neck”

“There are court cases that will take a decade, unfortunately, and they're saying it's fair use, which is a part of copyright law when you're taking copyright content and then just paraphrasing or taking out a sentence or two.”

“The only one really left standing up is the New York Times, which has a big lawsuit against OpenAI, and others that, like News Corp, my former employer, was talking a really tough game, and then did a one-eighty in their tone, and is now like, we're gonna nego…”

“This is my whole thing that like chat GPT is basically useless because it's so delusional.”

“It's going to be great to hold the stock at the top five biggest companies in the world, but like open AI ain't nowhere cause they're neither.”

“Like the most interesting stat that I saw this week was that it was something like five percent of people that have interacted with chat GPT have used GPT for.”

“It's all marketing.”

“You're not going to make money on base models. Right. They're going to be competed to zero.”

“Or as I've said, for two years are lighting money on fire. Like, you know, the good news is they get paid on the fees. So as long as they make reasonable DPI somewhere, they'll be fine.”

“We learn once again that OpenAI is a skeezy company.”

“The infrastructure business isn't going to work because it's the margins going to be driven to zero by every single player in the world there.”

“And then the consumer business, I think, will really, they have no inherent distribution, so unless they can weasel a deal.”

“All of these publishers are screwing up yet again with these open AI deals, right. Giving away all the value is information and it's very scarce.”

“You know what OpenAI would do is they would just steal it and then deal with the problems later.”

“I think OpenAI has been very good in execution, but Google has great technology and technologies. They just haven't been as crisp about their execution.”

“Obviously from an open AI perspective, it clearly establishes where open AI is in the competition for the best LLMs. Obviously many people wanted that business. And many things were evaluated, and so it's really rewarding to see where Apple thinks the best AI …”

“And I remember when GPT-III came out, I tried to both pitch a bunch of people to start effectively an open AI competitor, and nobody wanted to do it, because they didn't think it was a good business model, as well as it was such a big technology step up if you…”

“I think it's very likely we've reported they're talking about converting to a B Corp, which is a company which would essentially completely liberate him from the nonprofit kind of overhang and the issues that had that board boot him.”

“I'm, like, I would say, like, equal on Sam Alvin, but then on OpenAI, I'm, like, it's kind of the same thing. It's, like, they've weathered it, but they haven't clearly won anything.”

“What they got right was basic auth. Huge business. It's like hilarious because like this goes back to the whole thing. It's like this. I think sometimes big companies get this really wrong and like open AI actually to your point about Stripe kind of gets it be…”

“OpenAI is 90% market share.”

“So if you're slightly better at X, fine. You can make a tiny bit of money for six months being slightly better at X. There's just no way there's actually money in that business long-term.”

“It's like, actually there's nothing, if there was a thing that was 80% as good as OpenAI and just as easy to use, we get a ton of use, right? It's just like people don't think with true zero to one startups in mind, except for OpenAI, and they did a nice job w…”

“Yeah, I mean, as my colleagues at The Information have reported, OpenAI is making a billion dollars a year in selling access to its model.”

“The real open AI advantage right now is it's the simplest API and big companies lose sight of this because big companies don't give a shit about how simple an API is.”

“People like OpenAI stood on the grounds of, we're doing God's work, and we're an academic research thing, we're not a for-profit thing, and that gives us the license, because what we're doing is important, and because we aren't doing it for profit, to break a …”

“Open AI is losing a shitload of money.”

“I read in the information that TikTok is paying Microsoft Twenty million dollars a month to access open AI through Azure.”

“OpenAI investing sixty million dollars into Opal this week.”

“The only way startups win, right, I think in this world, is if the really big companies basically are too prissy And then also are too legal. Like they're suitable. They're real targets. So they can't do this stuff. And then they let all of the babies, like th…”

“Guys, I've been saying OpenAI zero the entire time. And I'm gonna keep saying it.”

“The bulk of open AI's revenue, I believe will ultimately like come from businesses”

“I do buy that like anthropic or open AI might have a big play in the enterprise world, but for the consumer world of AI, those two have to be the winners.”

“Like at the rate they're having to raise capital and at the unprofitability of their business models, they can only increase prices from here.”

“And, you know, they've pretty visibly stopped investing in this search GPT thing.”

“At some point the scale of the capital stack gets so big that secondary becomes to Sam's point, the only way that people can get the piece that they want. But it also becomes, you know, the gravity for the employee base becomes so strong that you have to start…”

“I think OpenAI and, like, AI in general could be, like, an Ajax-level innovation, but that is nothing. That's not, like, a real unlock. That was, like, a minor unlock is my basic point. It helped a little bit. It didn't change the world.”

“Like it, I think it actually sends People to the competitors.”

“Google is going to win the speed race.”

“And you know what? I bet Microsoft is all in favor of this too, because they don't want to have all their workloads either.”

“Right now you're seeing almost no consumer AI apps because it's so expensive to use the big models, right? Like if I were going to build a consumer AI app of any kind, call it, let's call it a social app of any kind. And I needed to call that API every single …”

“The last thing I'll say about this conversation we also had last night was that the Question was asked, like, would you have invested in OpenAI's hundred billion all around? And it was actually a resounding no. And like, you know, the tenor of these investors …”

“The information has led the charge on reporting about how in particular OpenAI, but also Google now are reaching slowdowns in the rate of training their models.”

“We've also done a series of stories recently, the information that have shown Roadbox, OpenAI and Anthropoc have hit in training. Not that they can't get through them, they work and, you know, but there are things that aren't working that we're working, right?”

“AI today, even if you're a really big bull and you think that Gemini and open AI is like better at answers is not actually going to expand inventory, right? If anything, it collapses inventory because you're doing fewer searches, right? It just gives you the a…”

“I mean, you even saw this week, we saw Sarah Fryer, the CFO of OpenAI be like, maybe we'll do ads. And then there was a big reaction to that, right?”

“And that's why I think it will counteract whatever your sort of 10 blue link shift is.”

“OpenAI is working on developing a browser”

“All the developers that, you know, are, we're looking at investing in you, you're seeing it as the API that everybody's using. People talk about using the other ones, but, you know, despite Anthropic maybe having better software engineering models or Elon buil…”

“The idea behind some of those deals is it will bring forth all sorts of new product innovation for news and other things, and I think it won't. I think basically these companies will be happy to pay the checks and take the checks, but that once again, a lot of…”

“AI today, even if you're a really big bull and you think that Gemini and open AI is like better at answers is not actually going to expand inventory, right? If anything, it collapses inventory because you're doing fewer searches, right? It just gives you the a…”

“All fundamentalisms, and we've seen quite a, even, you know, in the last few months, we've seen other forms of fundamentalism make grave miscalculations in terms of the actions that they take in the real world. And fundamentalisms in all of their forms are the…”

“If I'm in the seat, I don't bring him back, right? I say it's the ring of power. I threw it away.”

“Like, you know, and it's like, so it's very interesting to me that the story's become Ilya, The fundamentalist versus Sam, the pragmatist who just wants to build a business, because the reality is Sam Altman, the founder, even as a, you know, private conferenc…”

“I think anytime you need a flow chart to explain how your board works and is hired, you're probably starting from a bad position.”

“I think the idea being that OpenAI has now swiped all these AI startups for sure, and being an AI startup is a bad idea, which has been my line for a while.”

“I think I bring him back, but I create a new set of checks and balances that actually work to try to meet as many expectations as possible”

“Obviously from an open AI perspective, it clearly establishes where open AI is in the competition for the best LLMs.”

“They've pretty visibly stopped investing in this search GPT thing.”

“Like this went from being a nonprofit research organization with a lot of really, you know, interesting ideas, definitely fundamentalists, to being the tip of the spear, not just for Microsoft and their customers, but for all of Silicon Valley.”

“I was interviewing Nat Freeman today for our internal Vercel podcast today, and he was talking about how much conviction Microsoft got into OpenAI because of the effectiveness of Copilot. Like when Satya saw Copilot, when they were doing the initial iterations…”

“My vote would be to put him back to vote him back in. And I would do that with the creation of a You know, if it's going to stay a non-profit or, you know, whatever, I would do a two-board structure.”

“Like the bulk of OpenAI's revenue, I believe will ultimately like come from businesses”

“I think OpenAI has been very good in execution, but Google has great technology and technologies. They just haven't been as crisp about their execution.”

“Eleven billion dollars is completely irrelevant to Microsoft. Right. It's a three trillion dollar company, right? Like they can spend a living billion dollars.”

“The research side of the AI community has, you know, is largely a secular you know almost always talks in a deeply religious tone. They've made the, you know AI, in particular the AGI technology, into almost a sacred you know, they've almost deified this techn…”

“Like this is one of, I think the most impressive developer platform launches. Since maybe Facebook platform, if I do say so myself.”

“And I think that, like, plays to Google's advantage in the AI race that they have Chrome. Like, OpenAI doesn't have a browser that they can install this into, and Apple's certainly not, like, ahead in this race with Safari.”

“Frankly, I'm surprised that Microsoft and Sequoia and Thrive, like didn't do more board diligence when they were investing all this money to figure out like this board was like not adequate for the type of company that this has become.”

“Like, I think it actually sends people to the competitors.”

“OpenAI has built a great cult around itself. It has, it's awesome from that perspective. I do think that the gravity of the financial meme, right, and effectively financial thinking will ultimately break that, right? I don't think that it can survive as a narr…”

“Sam Altman's great innovation was fear marketing around, around, I a hundred percent agree with that and he's done a brilliant job if you just think about him as a marketer, right, from, like, from using that narrative to his advantage.”

“But look, open AI has got to be crawling with spies, got to be, right? And so they can be as close as they want. But I promise you, everyone has copies that cares, right, of what they're doing.”

“Including open AI's first Super Bowl ad.”

“What we did also break was that the board had decided to reject the offer.”

“I also like kind of am sympathetic to Elon on this one, because I also kind of believe setting aside the letter of the law, which again, I don't know, it's not my place, but like the spirit of the law, I do think there was a bait and switch by open AI in terms…”

“You don't need to look at it. None of it's investable. It's all just built on top of open AI.”

“OpenAI put out a new study about software engineering tasks and whether or not LLMs can pick up random software engineering tasks off Upwork, and what percentage of them can they complete? And it's only something like 40%, and crucially, LLMs can fix bugs, but…”

“I've been testing all of them on, ah, deep research mode, and OpenAI by far crushes all of them.”

“Twelve billion has gone into Grok, and OpenAI, you have to sort of discount the Microsoft dollars, because a lot of it's for compute, but an estimated twenty billion. Into open AI. So, you know, almost double what Grok has used to build a very similar, if not …”

“The information had an important story last week, which was inside OpenAI's revenue forecasts, and the biggest revelation is that SoftBank is expected to contribute a third of their revenue growth this year by paying them for their product.”

“Their conversion is still in jeopardy, although to a for-profit, and I believe if it doesn't happen, the existing investors can ask for their money back. Not saying that they would, but I think they have the right to if it doesn't happen in two or so years.”

“At a 100,000, we haven't hit that ceiling. And in fact, the user experience that they're delivering is on par, if not exceeding open AI.”

“Oh, this is Anthropic, Harvey, Glean, OpenAI, and Writer. Perplexity is at more than a 150 X. They would be the outlier. And I believe public SaaS is about an eight X.”

“I know a lot of smart investors are desperately trying to sell at 300, right?”

“And so if you look at it like a five to seven year time horizon, can you see this becoming one of the, you know, trillion dollar big companies in Silicon Valley? I think you can actually underwrite that from a company perspective, right?”

“The willingness to pay for this thing, provided they keep executing, like Facebook was executing in the same period of growth means that they will build a big, big business over the long term.”

“And so because they have cheap money, they're buying all these like real assets with super cheap money. And That's gonna work out terribly for most investors.”

“I think there's elasticity in like the pricing mechanisms that they offer right now, where as there are more product features and tools to be had, which I don't think it's just going to be like this format forever. I will probably pay more as both a consumer a…”

“And then they actually have to convert into a company cause guys, they're not a company. And then there's going to be a multi-year lawsuit over that fact.”

“I think I saw this thing about Tim O'Reilly saying like, it's pretty obvious that like they stole all the proprietary information from Safari and like their books to like build it. And it's like, it's total. I'm sure it's true. We all know that they stole ever…”

“So there's a pattern matching of all these exacts informed people going over there, which has absolutely nothing to do with like actually the quality of the business. Right. But it's purely about chasing that experience again at all costs, which is why you see…”

“I mean, we reported their revenue target this year is 12.7 billion up from four last year, and they're on track to hit it.”

“I wouldn't be surprised if the number go up, get to run up higher, but I don't think it's fundamentally going to like be in the pantheon of important companies.”

“They're only projected to lose forty four billion between. 2023 and 20 28, according to the information.”

“The business that we are in and the business that the funds are in that are investing at 50 or a hundred or three hundred billion dollars in OpenAI, like I have as much in common with those companies as I do with like a gas station. It just, we're not playing …”

“Companies that, that choose to or need to raise tens of or potentially hundreds of billions of dollars generally don't produce great Venture returns. And so like on the margin, I don't like the profile of companies that have to burn 20 or 30 or 40 or 50 or a h…”

“OpenAI with ChatGPT has become the consumer interface. I think they also said that they've just reached a billion users within the last Two or three weeks. And so, you know, we should expect them to behave like a billion user consumer internet company at this …”

“Like I found it really interesting that open AI was first to raise their hand this morning about You know, hey, we'll buy Chrome.”

“OpenAI buying Chrome would be the literal worst thing that could happen to the internet today.”

“I think the reality is that open AI really probably should just buy Snap. It's basically fucking free. Doesn't cost anything. Then they can put their little AI buttons all over everything, too, in an app that they own, just to keep it fair, you know?”

“I was saying that personality is going to be a moat in the LLM era.”

“I mean, if you look at daily actives, Gemini is about three quarters of ChatGPT at the moment.”

“Are you going to have a monogamous AI relationship? Doubtful. Right. Like, I think like, if anything, polyamory is on the rise in society. You know what I mean? Like, I think like, you're just going to like, Have lots of AIs in your life.”

“Windsurf obviously got sold to OpenAI for three billion.”

“They're like, they're going to do a hardware thing. Yeah, of course they're going to try. Hardware is so hard. You know what I mean? Like I put their probability of them succeeding at hardware so low.”

“I've actually tried, I tried what you just described this week several times where I asked the same question to both. And ChatGPT always answers better in context, like in a way that makes me feel like the work is better than what Gemini answers for me. Not in…”

“I was using OpenAI for a bunch of stuff, and just, like, realized that Gemini is, like, way better at this, right? Like, in terms of, like, it's just, like, wild to me that, like, Gemini's way better. And then you're like, oh, it turns out that, like, it also …”

“These AI Companies and business models that they are like computers. They're not like services. Like I buy chat GPT pro because I want to have the best computer to use for my, you know, everyday life. Just like I buy a new Mac book once every two years or a ne…”

“Well, same moment, I think is thematically correct and just annoying, but like, I think it's like, it's one of those things where you're like, okay, I'm a simultaneously going to massively accelerate the problem of fake things on the internet. And then also at…”

“I also think that OpenAI, I, I'll just say it on the record, I think that OpenAI will not launch a glasses-based vision, like, definitively they will not have cameras, they will not have glasses, like, That is a very diff, it's a very divergent worldview from …”

“There are two ways if you're a business to get open AI. You can get them from Microsoft or you can get them from OpenAI. What's OpenAI doing? It's cutting the price to undercut Microsoft.”

“These will be public companies. Absolutely. And maybe sooner rather than later.”

“The journal reported that OpenAI had considered an antitrust complaint against Microsoft.”

“Open AI would like Microsoft to go down to a third. From, I guess, around 49%, or, and it just seems like this relationship has completely deteriorated”

“It still is a non-profit. The AGs of the world have decided they cannot become a for-profit, so.”

“The information broke this week that OpenAI has been discussing. We don't know exactly the status, but sort of a Doc's productivity, like, sweet product.”

“I think everyone, Would have been way more on top of the copyright thing if they didn't, like, have this kind of, like, altruistic background. They're just doing research thing.”

“Apple is not in this league yet. They're doing cool things in AI in different areas, but, like, they're not-”

“Then this memo came out of OpenAI saying, like, our house has been raided. We have to reconsider all these things. I also hear they have a week-long vacation this week, pre-planned at OpenAI.”

“I truly think commerce and affiliate are really where this is all headed and open AI announced this week that it's like starting to create a new payment checkout system into the chat bot. And that basically merchants that fulfill the orders are going to have t…”

“ChatGPT, you know, ChatGPT, by the way, like, and Anthropic, like, they're making a lot of money, but they're not making enough money to fund the capital that they're raising. And so they have to turn to advertising sooner or later.”

“Their CFO is out there saying advertising is going to be a part of our business model publicly.”

“And like, that's why I think ultimately, like, the people like Google and Facebook do win, because like, they have a money making machine that regenerates the money. And so the money is free for them. Whereas like, if you're open AI, and you have to raise it, …”

“At the end of the day, it failed.”

“Like I would never invest in, I wouldn't invest in it. Anyway, you slice it for my fund or personally, because it doesn't fit my risk reward profile at all.”

“We've got OpenAI having to do an extension of their round.”

“These guys jumping ship proves it actually. Right? Like if they were so sure that they were on the path to AGI or super intelligence or whatever we're going to call it this week, they would have stayed with the team and the system that they were already workin…”

“Meta just added an OpenAI in five minutes to their market cap after the market close, so I don't know how that's going to blow out for anyone.”

“I think Anthropic probably does it before OpenAI because they need it more, right? So if you put the need before, although I think Google and Amazon will continue to fund them.”

“Satya will not want his investment that he has also invested a shit ton of infrastructure and supporting to go to zero. And he doesn't have to agree until the 11th hour, but that's like, he'll agree at the 11th hour.”

“I will say I'm 40% 2026, but like 90% 2027. So I think there is a re reasonable chance next year, and like, I just think they're not gonna go a Stripe, a SpaceX, and all that kind of stuff. Like, they're just not. The body language is totally different.”

“Sort of the north mission because of OpenAI and Anthropic all being over there. That's like the hot spot.”

“I actually bet that like a lot of the use of, and this is why this is so scary from a revenue perspective, is like, with the machines talking to machines doing random things, there's just a lot of like, A lot of movement and no output right from a lot of what'…”

“I actually probably spend On the order of a thousand dollars a month on OpenAI APIs right now. I don't really calculate it, but something like that, right?”

“These are terrible business.”

“This is the part of the conversation where he does his fiduciary duty as the board chair of open AI. That's what that sentence is, right?”

“And so I'd say that like, I would say that just in the spectrum of like, Tesla only exists as Tesla, because Elon is a great marketer, right? Like, I would say that the same thing is true of OpenAI is like, it was a very explicit marketing heavy strategy.”

“Whatever the compute configuration plus the software configuration that was going on in Q two of 20, 24 at open AI was the most powerful, most awesome version. And everything's been downhill from here.”

“So I do think you end up with like more vertical applications, leveraging this versus like platformy type stuff and open-ended type stuff, which again, we've also been talking about forever.”

“GPT-V launches. It's not that much of an improvement. Everybody knows it. Nobody wants to talk about it, but anyone using the thing can Just feel it. Like it's not actually that much better.”

“It's not currently working, right? Like the margin is, there's no margin. They're underwater. They have, you know, they're still funding the thing on large scale venture capital.”

“OpenAI ultimately loses this race.”

“OpenAI is paying 300,000 dollars for content strategists.”

“Every six months, OpenAI and Anthropic are just testing the private markets. And at some point, the answer will not come back as here's essentially all this free money”

“I mean, the stock is up, what, 10% on this news, which is on a 2.7 trillion dollar, it's like two hundred seventy billion dollars. So what's amazing is that basically it's added half an open AI because of open AI.”

“You have investors like Sequoia, who sat out OpenAI rounds three cycles ago, and many other VCs, they're not alone, just saying OpenAI is no longer a venture returns business, who came in three weeks ago or three months ago.”

“You know, it is very easy for the people who need to raise a trillion dollars, by the way, so they need to have a narrative of why Apple is doomed, aka OpenAI, right?”

“Kids are gonna get access to this stuff. Just like, you know, everyone, our generation, parents tried, tried, tried to keep pouring away from them, but that didn't work. Right? Like the kids are gonna get the bad stuff no matter what we do.”

“And so now all of a sudden Google like open AI actually in Google. Have a deal. A cloud deal. It's, like, wild.”

“I always assumed that one day I would wake up and I would open ChatGPT and it would ask me to upload my contacts and then I would be able to use ChatGPT with my friends, right? Like the four of us could use ChatGPT and have ChatGPT in the middle of the convers…”

“I'm just saying like that they've got, it's they've got a very interesting model going on right now where it's very loose on copyright and extremely tight on content moderation.”

“Sam Altman only has 10,000 followers right now, which, so it feels like it's like very not viral from a friending perspective.”

“Altman recently on a podcast referenced Instagram ads as maybe a not horrible advertising experience.”

“I think that's partially why you see this paranoia from other parts of the industries. This technology could literally be pointed in one of a gazillion directions, namely right at you, right?”

“I can't describe to you what the use case is of how the browser works. Other than that, it shows you ChatGPT in the window to the right, and then you can click like a single button to summarize an article. But all that does is pull the current URL into it. It …”

“And I have a hard time imagining that like open AI will be willing to go where like Grok will be willing to go with it effectively. And the middle ground will just be weird.”

“I bet they add improvements, though, and it gets like another, they get another hook on the line.”

“That, like, that was, like I mean, I understand it's still probably number one in the free app store or something, but, like, it's not gonna work.”

“Like, I'd argue the cost for meta of belief isn't that high. No one really cares. They can fork over a few years of cash flow, right? Like, investors will look the other way. They'll kind of be like an Oculus. They'll be mad for a minute, but get over it, righ…”

“I signed in with my OpenAI account, obviously, and then I started using it like I would have used ChatGPT in my Google Chrome browser, and it was hallucinating way more. It didn't have like a lot of memory stored about all the things I had talked to it about. …”

“Yeah, this is about building up memory. It's about building memory. It's like very clear. I mean, that is the one thing that I read.”

“Google and Apple are doing a Siri deal, so Siri is going to be powered by Gemini, essentially, until, until Apple, quote, figures it out, but it, there seems to be this pattern here of Apple realizing Google is, is pretty good at this stuff, and they'll be pre…”

“I will say they don't give them to us. Like people always come up to me. They're like, oh, doing open AI's dirty work for them by publishing their numbers. I'm like, yeah, not really. But so VCs assume that these companies like beg us to do this. I can, I will…”

“Now open AI is getting big traction on the business side too, but consumer subscriptions are not going to be the business.”

“If anything, Sora, I think as we all called, was a flash in the pan and is dead.”

“ChatGPT launched group chats in a bunch of obscure countries.”

“I actually think there's a very strong argument you're making right now, which I agree with, that actually, like, ChatGPT will be, is not Kleenex. And like this will be a like branding blip in history.”

“I honestly think this is going to be, this year is like an absolute make or break for if open AI is a thing or not is my view.”

“And I kind of look at this and I'm like, I think I said this on a previous pod that like this was by far the most obvious thing to do in social with AI. And it's like absolutely shocking to me that Meta did not do this first because it's like really, really ob…”

“We're like, we don't actually know what's going to work. We're going to do literally everything and like something will work, right? That's kind of feels like the arrow we're in on the chat GPT open AI side for me.”

“Well, I guess I'd short it beyond, like, to some degree, you know, below its current valuation. Yes. But I would not, it's not going to zero. It's not going to zero.”

“Laureen is clearly in team open AI in this In this battle playing out. And that, you know, she has had longstanding, obviously, relationships with Altman, and it's all relational, but I think it's interesting. And I do think that there's a time when it would h…”

“Guys, what they're selling as a computer is pretty much available for free. We can quibble on the margins, but the free version of Gemini is the number of people who are going to find the difference. So that is a big problem. That's not a little problem. That'…”

“We published a memo week or so ago, or details from a memo, quotes from a memo in which Sam Altman, ahead of the Gemini launch, but clearly when the team had been testing it, needed to rally his troops. And he said, the vibes are going to be tough out there. O…”

“I also think the chat GPT memory is a liability.”

“To be clear, you actually cost Sam Altman money. You didn't pay Sam Altman.”

“I kind of think there's a 50% chance Sam Altman wrote that memo so people would not know their actual strategy.”

“And when I look at what's happening in OpenAI, where they have a lot of very fancy people, people I like, but like the trade is, and you're going to get your fiefdom. And you're going to get to do important work you want to do. You then can't declare code reds…”

“Guys, they're so not pausing ads.”

“I think I've said this here by, you know, end of next year. Beginning of the next, real chance of SpaceX IPO, OpenAI IPO, Anthropic IPO.”

“Did you guys see, by the way, the information breaking this week that Amazon is in talks to invest ten billion dollars in OpenAI?”

“Gemini's gonna do this. Anthropoc's gonna do this.”

“I think it matters more to OpenAI to get that enterprise business than it does to Google.”

“I actually do kind of trust Anthropic, but not as much. I definitely don't trust, you know, OpenAI.”

“This is not good for open AI... The heavy brute force of LLMs is not a winner take all, it's not going to be an erase the AGI... The interesting game becomes on the edge and things like open claw are the decentralized version of it. So it becomes kind of irrel…”

“Sarah Fryer told me that they're looking at licensing IP for, like, drug discovery, right? Because the business model, she's the CFO of OpenAI, like, and this is something they're just looking at.”

“Charles, who ran Instagram, some of the most important relationships, including a lot of their celebrity relationships, is going to open AI. To do a similar role there.”

“This is honestly the most distracted company in the history of the world.”

“No, there's a whole, there's a family of apps, a family of devices here.”

“I could see this reversing. I don't think this is long term.”

“Something would have to change in a dramatic fashion for Claude to not cross OpenAI in the next two months. Like, something weird would have to happen.”

“I heard that open AI and some of the bigger apps have been stuck in the queue for a month. For changes that are unrelated to VibeCode, it's just random changes unrelated.”

“Following the information's reporting about the code red Several months ago in terms of competing with then Gemini, they're sort of entering this another strategic review period where they're going to focus on enterprise and coding and get rid of what they cal…”

“I mean, like they're just, I just, this is like a ridiculous, this is just ridiculous. I mean, it's like, whatever, it doesn't like, if you want to buy 20 cents of infrastructure per dollar in a thing with like increasing competition where it turns out the sto…”

“OpenAI's Monster Fundraising, complete with three billion dollars in raises from retail investors.”

“This idea that like any one service can lock down, like what it will and won't do is ridiculous because as long as anything else on the internet will do it, like it'll just happen. You just ask the thing to like, do you do a much more complicated setup, which …”

“The other thing I hear that wasn't obvious to me is how much this will be seen, this IPO will be seen as a bellwether for Anthropic and OpenAI”

“And I gotta say by and large, and it's anecdotal, but there are enough of them. They are very, very excited about these companies and they're selling down their mag seven positions a little bit to, or preparing to like go all in on these companies.”

“Sam was very, very anxious about the piece. The board was anxious about the piece. So, yeah, from my point of view, it was sort of a nothing burger, but I say that as probably the person in the media who follows this story the most closely, so.”

“There was a memo that was leaked from OpenAI, an OpenAI memo that was leaked. I think it was in OpenAI's interest for this memo to be out there. I also think it was written in a way where they wanted it to be out there, where they came after Anthropic. Both fo…”

“But I also think at some point pricing will play a way, way bigger role in this. And these total anthropic and open AI bills, like don't acknowledge that for many, many things you're going to use cheap models.”

“Ronan Farrow had been working on a profile of Sam Altman for, I think he said, 18 months. I caught wind of it a little over a year ago, just cause he was calling everyone, And the word on the street was that he was like probing some really serious allegations,…”

“I think there is a greater than not chance that they settle before then or that they postpone.”

“This upcoming Monday is scheduled to be the start of the Elon Musk vs. OpenAI trial. The central question of which was, did OpenAI have the right to convert from a nonprofit to a for-profit, and what should Elon be compensated as well, having been one of the b…”

“I think almost every rights holder, right, would have said no effing way if it had been transparent what they were going to do, and they were going to become a for-profit, whereas everyone kind of was like, okay, and looked the other way.”

“This conversion of being like, oh, we're just doing a research project. Don't worry, we're scraping the entire internet, but it's just for good. It's just for a research project. And then flipping that into, oh, no, actually it isn't. I just think it was like …”

“Sam Altman and Greg Brockman attended jury selection. Highly unusual. No one ever attends jury selection.”

“They added the information that, which is pertinent, which would certainly be newsworthy on its own, that they have also missed revenue targets for ChatGPT recently, although we don't know by how much and we already knew that they missed the user targets, but …”

“Anthropic passed open AI.”

“That lawsuit, I just can't imagine that OpenAI, the cat's out of the bag. It's just not going to happen, that that, that lawsuit will be successful.”

“It was revealed that Altman, because it was a nonprofit back then, was paid Greg ten million dollars out of his, like, own family office and kept it from Elon, and so all these sort of alliances were being formed beneath the surface, and it just seemed like a …”

“Polymarket gives Elon a 41% chance of winning the case.”

“They have actually a couple of people contributing from the open AI engineering team have been contributing as open source maintainers. Obviously Peter is the largest contributor and he technically works at open AI.”

“You know, it also came out that Brockman's stake is worth about thirty billion dollars, which is a point that he was just grilled on and asked, well, why haven't you donated it?”

“OpenAI also revealed in a filing that Musk had approached them about his, Brockman, about a potential settlement two days before.”

“And then we charted of the, we just had earnings, of the backlogs in deals for Microsoft, Oracle, Google, and Amazon, what percentage are OpenAI's commitment and Anthropi's commitment? It's together, they're about half, ok?”

“ChatGPT itself still isn't beyond eight hundred million people, and it's declining in growth right now.”

“It's just that they have the compute and nobody else does. They can use it as a strategic weapon.”

“The entire message is that AI is so good. It's going to AGI and take care of itself. And if that's true, then starting a deployment company is the worst idea you could possibly have because it will be deploying itself In two years.”

“This was a great financial strategy for Microsoft. It wasn't a great product strategy. They like executed a massive trade. The trade looks like it's working out, but the product outcome that they wanted or that they perhaps needed hasn't materialized”

“Microsoft had a right of first refusal. On all new compute from OpenAI. And Sam was saying, we need more. And Amy Hood, the CFO of Microsoft and Satir were like we're not going to give you more right now. And they underestimated their needs and let them pursue…”

“Sam Altman today tweeted that enterprises who want to move to Codex can get their first two months of tokens free.”

“They're like the only one whose entire AI strategy depends on a partner that's actively becoming a creator.”

“We should mention, everyone knows, that OpenAI won a decisive victory in their Elon Musk trial. That came down to the jury deciding Elon was too late to file this lawsuit.”

“So you have these two AI companies that in really short order are going to be trying to convince public investors they're worth more than a trillion dollars, and they're going to have extraordinary revenue growth to back that up.”