The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lessin: Kalshi and Polymarket will be heavily hamstrung by regulation
“I think the prediction markets are gonna really be hamstrung by regulation and face really tough years next year, specifically Kalshi and Polymarket.”
Jessica Lessin Dec 19, 2025 ▶ 25:16 Hype vs Reality: Our 2026 Predictions for Tech, Media, and Culture · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Partly supported
Britt Morin: Women represent less than a quarter of Kalshi and Polymarket users
“Women are only like Less than a quarter of Kalshi and Polymarket right now really hasn't like struck with most of the women I know.”
Brit Morin Jun 26, 2026 ▶ 19:43 Chinese AI Model GLM 5.2 Beating Frontier Models | Meta Glasses, Polymarket Scandal, AI Talent War · More or Less Podcast
Opinion
Morin: Surprising Coinbase Didn't Build Its Own Prediction Market Faster
“It's surprising to me actually that Coinbase didn't innovate and add their own prediction market much faster. And so the fact that they're having to Partner with Kalshi.”
Dave Morin Nov 21, 2025 ▶ 47:59 Google Just Won AI, TikTok’s “Self-Control Badges”, ChatGPT Enters Group Chats · More or Less Podcast
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