why aren't all 19 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Sam Lessin: Lyft is doomed due to autonomous vehicle competition
“Guys, lift, lift is fucked.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lessin: Alphabet was created because Waymo was too expensive for Google
“I mean, Waymo was so expensive that Larry Page could not convince anyone at Google to let them keep it fully on their books. So they had to create Alphabet so they could get outside investors in Waymo.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Suds: Laundry-Folding Robots Will Arrive in Three to Four Years
“We're gonna go from, like, Waymo in, like, 15 cities to, like, robots folding your laundry in four years, three years from now, and it's gonna look really weird.”
Assertion Contradicted
Dave Morin: Waymo Vehicles Cost Between $250K and $500K Each
“I think these Waymo's cost on the order of 250 to 500 K a piece.”
Opinion
Sam Lessin: The average Uber driver is worse than autonomous vehicles
“The average Uber driver is worse than the computer at driving”
Opinion
Jessica Lessin: Waymo finds faster routes in the Bay Area than rideshares
“And the internet is skeptical of this claim, but as someone who's commuted to my office for a long time, twice a day, Waymo's find faster routes. Every day they are optimizing the Bay Area traffic with some AI stuff in ways that's faster.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Jessica Lessin predicts Waymo demand will make El Camino a primary route
“This is my prediction that, oh, Camino is going to be an important thoroughfare. Relative to the one-on-one because the people are going to want their Waymos.”
Opinion
Dave Morin claims San Francisco parents only let their children ride Waymos
“Everybody in the city only allows their children to use Waymo.”
Insight
Lessin: Waymos refusing to drive to their death will signal AGI
“I think we'll probably know that the AGI has occurred when the Waymos are like, no, I'm not gonna, like, march to my death. Like, that's gonna be the sign of sentience.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sam Lessin: Private schools use Waymos to drop off unattended kids
“Well, to be clear, I mean, we know for a fact that some private schools in San Francisco is going to have Waymo pickups and drop off for kids. Now, whether that's against the rules or not, I know for a fact that that has happened.”
Assertion Partly supported
Brit Morin: Waymo holds 22 percent of SF rides, surpassing Lyft
“Now Waymo has 22% market share of all taxi journeys in San Francisco, which exceeds the human driver company, or sorry, the human driver company Lyft was the headline.”
Opinion
CRISPR has transitioned to a proven technology just like Waymo
“It feels exactly like Waymo, where for 10 years, people have been like, CRISPR's awesome. You're like, it is awesome. It's very, very cool. But now it's like, oh shit, it works.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lessin: Waymo will be everywhere by the LA Olympics
“And I also predict by the Olympics in LA, Waymo is just gonna be, like, everywhere.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Brit Morin: San Francisco parents mandate Waymo over Uber for kids
“We do know also a lot of people in the city that require that their kids use Waymo versus using Ubers.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Jessica Lessin: Waymo could open its SFO passenger route any day
“There was no passenger because they're clearly testing, but I hear sources say any day they could be opening up the SFO route.”
Prediction Held up
Brit Morin: Waymo is testing autonomous driving on Highway 101
“They're going to go on the highways soon. They're already testing on the one-on-one.”
Assertion Supported
Sam Lessin: San Francisco schools are adopting Waymo drop-off rules
“Well, but we do know, we know of some schools in San Francisco that now have Waymo drop-off roles for the kids.”
Opinion
Sam Lessin: Transportation Like Waymo Capitalizes on In-Person Trend
“Waymo. Because if you, all of these people got to go places, then all of a sudden you got to get them there, right? So it's like transportation shit is where to be at.”
Assertion Partly supported
Jessica Lessin: Waymo Expands Robotaxi Operations to Silicon Valley Peninsula
“Waymo announced this week, opening up Palo Alto, Menlo Park, Los Altos, and I think one other.”