why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Brit Morin: 85% of Grok Images Are Nude or Sex-Related
“Grok, no, Grok, the AI platform, not the one that offline was part of, who just raised more money, by the way. 85% of the images that it's producing right now are nude or sex related.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Grok marks xAI becoming the third truly competitive foundation AI lab
“I think this is actually the beginning of Grok being the third foundation lab that is truly in the game.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sam Lessin: AI's future is a cast of characters, not one assistant
“Again, I just think the future, honestly, is you have to model these things like a cast of characters, not a single person that is your confidant. And like, they're just a bunch of friends. There's gonna be more of them. And like, Grok is your Republican frien…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Grok Built a Competitive Model for Barely Half of OpenAI's $20B Spend
“Twelve billion has gone into Grok, and OpenAI, you have to sort of discount the Microsoft dollars, because a lot of it's for compute, but an estimated twenty billion. Into open AI. So, you know, almost double what Grok has used to build a very similar, if not …”
Opinion
Dave Morin: 100k GPU Clusters Have Not Hit a Scaling Ceiling
“At a 100,000, we haven't hit that ceiling. And in fact, the user experience that they're delivering is on par, if not exceeding open AI.”
Opinion
Lessin: Grok's image generation is vastly superior to all competing models
“And like, I use like Grok for image stuff because candidly, it's just way better. It's like not even close. Like Grok is the only one that's cared about image stuff. So like their image stuff is just way better.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lessin: OpenAI will not match Grok on erotica-friendly content
“And I have a hard time imagining that like open AI will be willing to go where like Grok will be willing to go with it effectively. And the middle ground will just be weird.”
Insight
Yakovenko: Public AI models inevitably suffer worst-case adversarial misuse
“I think these are kind of growing pains for AI systems that have public access. Like it's just Sam has built systems that have untrusted user inputs. As soon as you build one of these, people will do the worst possible thing just, you know, for fun, for whatev…”