why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Lessin: Evan Spiegel's founder mode leadership at Snap has been a disaster
“You know, Evan Spiegel seems like he operates in founder mode. It's been a disaster, right?”
Opinion
Sam Lessin: Snap is a shitty company because Evan Spiegel lacks focus
“I think one of the reasons Snap is such a shitty company Is because Evan has too fertile a mind for new products. They're constantly making new shit and not refining what works.”
Assertion Supported
Meta's settlement drops teen daily limit to one hour if competitors agree
“For that two hour time limit, it will be reduced to a one hour daily limit if TikTok, Snap, and YouTube also agree.”
Opinion
Lessin: Snap is a $7B company and completely irrelevant
“Guys, Snap is a seven billion dollar company. It's completely irrelevant what Snap does.”
Opinion
Sam Lessin: Snap's $14B market cap is too small for AR hardware
“You cannot play today's game with a fourteen billion dollar market cap. It's just not possible, right? Like he doesn't have the resources.”
Opinion
Sam Lessin: OpenAI should acquire Snap to distribute its AI features
“I think the reality is that open AI really probably should just buy Snap. It's basically fucking free. Doesn't cost anything. Then they can put their little AI buttons all over everything, too, in an app that they own, just to keep it fair, you know?”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sam Lessin: Snap will operate faster and better following PM layoffs
“The company will now, I have no idea how product managers they have, but I'm almost certain it will now work faster and better.”
Opinion
Morin: Evan Spiegel is one of the best product leaders on Earth
“Evan is one of the best product guys on earth.”
Opinion
Sam Lessin: Snap is an unsuccessful one-trick pony that got eclipsed
“Now, I don't think it's been successful. You know, I think it was a one trick pony and it has been eclipsed in a thousand ways.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sam Lessin: Snap stock consistently crashes on earnings and recovers
“Snap is it does this thing every quarter where, like, it gets, announces earnings, gets completely crushed, and then, like, somehow floats back up, and then announces earnings and gets crushed. It's a very interesting signature.”
Assertion Contradicted
Dave Morin: Adjusted for inflation, Snap stock never gained since IPO
“It's basically been sideways to down, and if you factor in inflation, like, they've never been up since since IPO.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lessin: Snap inverted its historical cycle of post-earnings stock crashes
“Every single quarter, Snap magically does this thing where they have terrible earnings and, like, the stock tanks, and then slowly people start to think it might work again and it'll increase back up, and they have earnings in the tanks. And for the first time…”
Assertion Contradicted
Lessin: Snap stock is trading below half its IPO price
“They're all the way back up to less than half of their IPO price.”
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Nov 2024
Morin: Spiegel warned that simplifying Snap's user experience will hurt metrics
“Evan gave the guidance that this will hurt our numbers, but we don't care because we're, we want to, you know, go for a better experience for the people that are our core user base and trade off the other way.”