The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 32 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Lessin: Foundation AI models will not become good, sustainable businesses
“Like I've actually come out of this exercise more cynical even than I was a month ago. Right. Or even a few weeks ago that any of these are going to be good, sustainable businesses, despite the fact it's clearly going to be everywhere in the air.”
Apple's Foundation Models Are Actually Distilled Google Gemini Models
“And what it looks like they've done here is just taken, you know, state of the art Gemini models, both the on-device local flavor, as well as the cloud flavors and distilled them for their own purposes into these, you know, quote, Apple foundation models. Whic…”
Lessin: A major tech model developer will switch to Google's Gemini
“I, and then I guess I think one major company That is currently in the race to develop their own AI models will be using Gemini.”
Lessin: Free Gemini creates a severe business model problem for OpenAI
“Guys, what they're selling as a computer is pretty much available for free. We can quibble on the margins, but the free version of Gemini is the number of people who are going to find the difference. So that is a big problem. That's not a little problem. That'…”
Jessica Lessin: Altman warned OpenAI staff 'vibes are going to be tough'
“We published a memo week or so ago, or details from a memo, quotes from a memo in which Sam Altman, ahead of the Gemini launch, but clearly when the team had been testing it, needed to rally his troops. And he said, the vibes are going to be tough out there. O…”
Lessin: Gemini and Anthropic Are Trained on TPUs Rather Than GPUs
“If that's true, then the top two coding models Gemini and Anthropic are trained on TPUs, not GPUs. And I think that's a really big deal.”
Sam Lessin: Generative AI collapses ad inventory rather than expanding it
“AI today, even if you're a really big bull and you think that Gemini and open AI is like better at answers is not actually going to expand inventory, right? If anything, it collapses inventory because you're doing fewer searches, right? It just gives you the a…”
Sam Lessin: AI search collapses ad inventory by answering queries directly
“AI today, even if you're a really big bull and you think that Gemini and open AI is like better at answers is not actually going to expand inventory, right? If anything, it collapses inventory because you're doing fewer searches, right? It just gives you the a…”
Dave Morin: NotebookLM could replace Google's Gemini UX within six months
“I mean, I think you might see in three, six months that the sort of Gemini core user experience is thrown out in favor of the notebook LM experience because it's just better for everyday consumers.”
Jessica Lessin: AI power constraints will reshape tech more than model improvements
“Would be a lot more attention on the Power behind AI that is required, and I think that's gonna, like, reorder the AI landscape more than, like, is GPT 3.9, you know, different from Gemini 7.2, right?”
Morin: Google Gemini Achieved 90% on MMLU, Beating Human Experts
“The essence of Gemini is, is this idea of multi-modality AI and the idea that it's now finally 90% Of sort of capability, and it outperforms humans. So the human percentage was, 86.4% as far as the human expert scale. Gemini is now 90%, and they call it”
Brit Morin: Google is directly targeting Canva with Google Pics and Gemini
“Canva was on this like IPO darling list for so long, and now Google launched Google Pix, P-I-C-S, and without saying they're basically going after Canva, they're going after Canva, and everything is like Gemini integration, Google workspace integration, you co…”
Brit Morin predicts Google's Gemini will rise in AI rankings this year
“I think by the end of this year, Gemini is, is much higher in the rankings.”
Lessin: OpenAI is pivoting to enterprise and coding, cutting side quests
“Following the information's reporting about the code red
Several months ago in terms of competing with then Gemini, they're sort of entering this another strategic review period where they're going to focus on enterprise and coding and get rid of what they cal…”
Dave Morin: Google was the most dramatic mover in AI execution
“Not just sentiment, also an execution. I mean, if you just look at the usage of Gemini year over year, one year later, I mean, they were the most dramatic mover.”
Jessica Lessin says Apple and Google partnered for Gemini to power Siri
“Google and Apple are doing a Siri deal, so Siri is going to be powered by Gemini, essentially, until, until Apple, quote, figures it out, but it, there seems to be this pattern here of Apple realizing Google is, is pretty good at this stuff, and they'll be pre…”
Morin: ChatGPT consistently outperforms Google Gemini on general contextual queries
“I've actually tried, I tried what you just described this week several times where I asked the same question to both. And ChatGPT always answers better in context, like in a way that makes me feel like the work is better than what Gemini answers for me. Not in…”
Lessin: Gemini is way better than OpenAI at coding and documentation
“I was using OpenAI for a bunch of stuff, and just, like, realized that Gemini is, like, way better at this, right? Like, in terms of, like, it's just, like, wild to me that, like, Gemini's way better. And then you're like, oh, it turns out that, like, it also …”
Jessica Lessin: Gemini's Daily Active Users Are Three Quarters of ChatGPT's
“I mean, if you look at daily actives, Gemini is about three quarters of ChatGPT at the moment.”
Dave Morin: Gemini deep research handles complex queries no other model can
“And I've been shocked at the kinds of queries that it can do that none of the other models can.”
Dave Morin: Gemini Deep Research is Google's first truly impressive Gemini product
“Gemini in deep research mode is really impressive. I actually think it's the first Gemini product that they've launched that just screams Google to me. It's really impressive what it does.”
Google announces over 900M active Gemini users
“I think they said they have over nine hundred million active users using Gemini.”
Brit Morin: Gemini and Anthropic will match OpenAI's health data integration
“Gemini's gonna do this. Anthropoc's gonna do this.”
Morin: Google launched Offerwall to help publishers monetize lost search traffic
“Google, in an attempt to make publishers more happy because all of their traffic has dropped, especially with Gemini now rolling out on top of search results, launched a new product this week to help publishers monetize. Did you see this? It's called Offerwall…”
Jessica Lessin: Gemini has 35M daily and 350M monthly active users
“Gemini has thirty-five million daily actives. I think ChatGPT has five hundred million monthlies, and actually Gemini is three hundred and fifty million monthly, so that's not that.”
Dave Morin: Gemini Is Consistently the Best LLM at Numbers
“That's been the consistent answer, actually. Gemini's best at numbers.”
Brit Morin: I don't trust Google's Gemini AI model "at all anymore"
“I don't even trust Gemini at all anymore.”
Jessica Lessin: Google is delayed on Gemini cloud and enterprise rollout
“We've got the next folly in the AI wars coming as Google is delayed on many other aspects of the Gemini rollout, including the cloud and enterprise stuff, which is quite important.”
Brit Morin: GPT has caught up to Gemini in image generation
“GPT has really, like, gotten up on Gemini in terms of image generation.”