Google

“I think one of the interesting things this morning was that the somebody did an analysis that Google search results are meaningfully worse off today because of the Reddit stuff going on.”

“It's still nowhere, it's not gaining market share, which I don't know how much that really matters, but it and they've set all sorts of goals around that, that they're nowhere close to meeting.”

“I mean, that, Ruth's track record to date has largely been pruning those. I mean, Larry created Alphabet. Because, you know, he wanted a way to retain all these great people who wanted to go off and do fun projects, like Andy Rubin, who didn't, you know, want …”

“The interface is really nice. It's arguably the best AI search interface out there right now.”

“Most of like the line engineers and people who just kind of like, you know, show up in nine to five and crunch out small projects. They're just not that valuable and you're better off cutting them rather than doing whatever you possibly can to retain them.”

“The big platforms, the Facebooks, sorry, the Metas, the Googles, the Amazons, are really going to be obviously huge winners from AI, and there's no cap on how big they can get anymore.”

“The DOJ Google case, it's hard to know how it's going. I think the DOJ will land some blows, but it's not going to be. Earth shattering.”

“Apparently Google I think on YouTube with sports and the NFL, they're basically, like, have these little rings that show up underneath the athletes as they move into position before the play starts, and the AI is actually predicting who's going to rush the qua…”

“Meanwhile, Secretary Raimondo is telling me that all the big tech companies, OpenAI, Meta, Google, and so forth, are cooperating, are, and down to the level of agreeing to tell the government when they're running their next model.”

“I think the big winners on this are Microsoft, actually, despite the challenges of the eyes. It's Amazon. It's going to be Google.”

“I mean, it was always ridiculous to count Google out in this. Like, of course, they're gonna build really interesting stuff.”

“Their entire advertising model is based on that people are telling them their exact intent. And so if you're, if that is being threatened by another box somewhere that is, you know, becoming more useful for answering the same questions, then it's a, it's like …”

“But, you know, they've got amazing technologists over there, the kind of union of the DeepMind group in Google brain, you know, seems all things considered to Kind of have worked.”

“The essence of Gemini is, is this idea of multi-modality AI and the idea that it's now finally 90% Of sort of capability, and it outperforms humans. So the human percentage was, 86.4% as far as the human expert scale. Gemini is now 90%, and they call it”

“They perform really well for us, by the way, the best part of our small paid advertising budget is Google by a long shot.”

“I mean, the thing that's disrupted the Google search box and the experience has really been Amazon because people stop searching or they search less for commerce queries on Google because they search on Amazon, right? And that hits Amazon, that hits Google's c…”

“I'm just saying that kills the news business right there. So, or it kills 75% of the news business, right?”

“We've got the next folly in the AI wars coming as Google is delayed on many other aspects of the Gemini rollout, including the cloud and enterprise stuff, which is quite important.”

“And Meta and Adobe. And like, it's all the same people, right? And they're just going to do grinding warfare.”

“And actually my best example of this was the information was having a cocktail party in DC. And I Introduced Luther Lowe, who at the time was working for Yelp and has been sort of the biggest antagonist trying to get Google sued and broken up on antitrust grou…”

“They must be hiding a bunch of headcount, like in other places, like in the ads teams or things like that off the books.”

“I think it ends up being Apple and Google all over again, to be honest, at the end of the day.”

“Google in June of twenty-twenty-three shifted the focus to XR software. So it's basically like creating Android for VR. And any hardware developers can incorporate XR into their own hardware as their own VR device.”

“Android is kind of dying slash not working and iOS is just completely dominating.”

“If you believe, as I do, that all the value is going to accrue to the top five players anyway, what you'd expect is that, like, on some non-zero timeline, but in the next few years, all the talent that got excited about these startup opportunities and went fly…”

“I think as everyone that listens knows, I'm extra long on Google in the AI race for a lot of reasons, but I'm also, I'm not short Apple.”

“Like, they're all sitting here now saying, you know, do we take the relative pennies from OpenAI and Apple and everyone who wants to license our content? And I actually think, unfortunately, they are, because publishers are so scared about what any kind of dro…”

“There's just an apocalypse coming, I have to say, around this kind of, sort of, publisher-driven search traffic, and so, And ergo, you know, they're taking deals that make no sense.”

“There are court cases that will take a decade, unfortunately, and they're saying it's fair use, which is a part of copyright law when you're taking copyright content and then just paraphrasing or taking out a sentence or two.”

“And like, I think Google does the right thing. You fire the right few people for inching around it. The problem is when you don't, if you have rules and you let people trample them, you're screwed, right? You have to enforce your own rules, right?”

“It's all marketing.”

“And for me, it got me to believe that Google and Apple, I continuously believe are going to be the last remaining horses in this race.”

“If you have a big platform that gets better with better targeting or copy, you're great. You know, the meds of the world, the Google, you're going to do fabulous. As long as you get the cost of the stuff down, you're in business. You're going to do great. You'…”

“And you know how pro Google I am. I've like moved to perplexity or GPT. It's like I had a, there's a switching cost to this and like, I get that they're training it and trying to make it better, but it's really frustrating when they're just.”

“I think Reddit is mostly to blame for this because there's so much content on Reddit. That's not valid. Google's clearly ingested this. And use the content to train its model. And like, that's, this is where a lot of these crazy answers are coming from.”

“Quality news publishers learned that the hard way from Google and Facebook that paid them a bunch of money and stopped paying them. So that's one reason you don't do it is that the priorities of these platforms change and”

“And it's really the only app and network that is interoperable across Google and Apple.”

“I think OpenAI has been very good in execution, but Google has great technology and technologies. They just haven't been as crisp about their execution.”

“Most of the money funding foundation models is strategic, right? Versus venture capital. Venture capital maybe funds things into the hundreds of millions, and then it gets handed off to Google and Amazon and Facebook and all the other folks to invest billions …”

“I started getting into defense tech when Google shut down Maven because I was like, oh my gosh, if Google isn't doing it, what a great startup opportunity, you know? So I started looking for defense companies and then I met Anduril and I was like, oh my God, t…”

“Like, is Google for twenty-three billion dollars gonna buy Wiz security company? I think it's highly unlikely, but.”

“This was the strategy at Google back in the day, too”

“Meta trying to invest in Luxottica slash Supreme. And Google also trying, Google now trying to get on it too.”

“These deals, we've now had three, basically like billions of dollars of acquihires of teams to get around acquiring companies. Microsoft's done it, Amazon's done it, and now Google's done it.”

“They have a 94.9% share on mobile.”

“Google paid Apple, twenty billion for the default search deal, and Apple's services division, which this revenue went into, generated eighty-five billion. So about a quarter of its services division is coming Directly from Google.”

“So I personally think if this is, if the case ended up coming down, they, that the courts defined it as the search ad market was not a monopoly, but the search consumer was, and that I, my money says this gets struck down, which is why the stock isn't.”

“I'm, as, if you hadn't heard, I'm extremely long AI only in the case of ads optimization and making a shitload of money for Facebook and Google”

“So like this idea that it's work from home, Google invented the low work engineer culture.”

“When you pitched a 20% project, you had to pitch it to Larry, Sergey, and Eric. You had to go to, like, the exact meeting. Pitch the project and explain to them how you were going to also keep up your normal day job while doing the project.”

“Should Google and their AI team be far more aggressive and like In the war room trenches right now? Probably. Like, I don't, you know, it just seems like they should be like, or they should be like shipping more than demos. Like it should, you know what I mean…”

“Yes, Google has not had a high performance culture Like ever.”

“Because I do think that in the end of the day, we're going to rely upon Facebook, Apple, and Google to defend free speech on the internet, right? Because they're the only ones powerful enough, or crypto, or it's like a crypto decentralized thing.”

“There's a massive incentive to try to be the next Google in terms of how capital stacks up. And I think it's a real disservice to the company. I think it destroys a lot of companies that would be perfectly good if they were just operated sanely.”

“I don't even trust Gemini at all anymore.”

“I do buy that like anthropic or open AI might have a big play in the enterprise world, but for the consumer world of AI, those two have to be the winners.”

“I mean, I think you might see in three, six months that the sort of Gemini core user experience is thrown out in favor of the notebook LM experience because it's just better for everyday consumers.”

“Google is going to win the speed race.”

“People are still gonna choose Google.”

“I mean, not just it, but for the ecosystem, right? Like seeing some, seeing like 1000 perplexities bloom would be actually very good for Silicon Valley.”

“Is Timu popping up in your first Google search results above Amazon? Because it is for me, and they're undercutting Amazon's prices by so much. I think it's real competition.”

“I mean, Waymo was so expensive that Larry Page could not convince anyone at Google to let them keep it fully on their books. So they had to create Alphabet so they could get outside investors in Waymo.”

“Did you guys see that YouTube within Google's earnings is actually now is a fifty billion dollar revenue generating company, which if you don't count Meta as a media company makes YouTube kind of the number one and Netflix now is, is thirty seven billion at nu…”

“Google had the headline that it, 25% of the code written at the company is originated with AI and then checked by people.”

“And so if what you're producing is content that is sort of like facts in general knowledge, it's very likely that you're never, you're not even going to get back the backlinks. Cause someone's going to search on Google, for example, what is HTTP? It used to be…”

“For what we do, which is react, which is like the front end. There's four million is the best estimate we get from Google and for creating interfaces, which is very much like a design thing.”

“The information has led the charge on reporting about how in particular OpenAI, but also Google now are reaching slowdowns in the rate of training their models.”

“Well, I think I, and I've actually started to do some actual reporting on this topic, and my strong hunch is a really, is a nice juicy settlement coming. Nothing imminent, but they're still waiting for courts”

“That's not going to happen with Trump as president.”

“The insight is you go to Google as kind of the front page of your experience to the internet. And so any kind of downstream thing you want to do, you type restaurants, they can capture those queries. You type travel, they can capture those queries. And so that…”

“I think if you look at the actual track record it, you know, this is probably, you know, unfortunately, a negative on, on the FTC environment, but it does seem hyper targeted at four or five companies. You know, Splunk was acquired for thirty billion dollars b…”

“And also the reality is almost all Google searches are for like six things, right? Like the internet is actually much smaller. People's demands are much smaller than people think they are. The internet is very large, but the actual used internet is actually qu…”

“And that's why I think it will counteract whatever your sort of 10 blue link shift is.”

“Google is, is in, you know, singularly the trickiest spot, I think of the big tech players. Cause you know, this is not particularly disruptive to Meta. It's basically all upside. It's all kind of like an adjacent side business to AWS and Amazon. It's all net …”

“Isn't the most amazing part about this and like why Google might actually win this race because they have Chrome, they have the browser and what this is, it's called project Mariner. It's a Chrome extension. So anytime you're browsing the web, you hit your Chr…”

“Gemini in deep research mode is really impressive. I actually think it's the first Gemini product that they've launched that just screams Google to me. It's really impressive what it does.”

“For what we do, which is React, which is like the front end, there's four million is the best estimate we get from Google.”

“And I've been shocked at the kinds of queries that it can do that none of the other models can.”

“It used to be a valid content marketing strategy and like marketers in the values to do this, like create a lot of content so that when people search, you'll hit the keywords and whatever, but increasingly a lot of that traffic will just stay in the AI front e…”

“I think OpenAI has been very good in execution, but Google has great technology and technologies. They just haven't been as crisp about their execution.”

“And I think that, like, plays to Google's advantage in the AI race that they have Chrome. Like, OpenAI doesn't have a browser that they can install this into, and Apple's certainly not, like, ahead in this race with Safari.”

“I personally think if this is, if the case ended up coming down, they, that the courts defined it as the search ad market was not a monopoly, but the search consumer was, and that I, my money says this gets struck down, which is why the stock isn't.”

“For me, the meta story is it's like in the perfect position. They have no liability around this stuff because they're not Google. They have no search business. Like they don't like, they have the perfect use case for AI, right? Which is Optimizing ads and atte…”

“It's something like 40% of people think they're going to stop using Google the next two years.”

“I mean, did you look at the inauguration? These guys are now bending the knee to Trump, right? So, I don't see him playing hardball in the near term.”

“I am going to go on record saying this deal will not close.”

“I'd be happy to hedge my tiny, tiny proxy whiz possession to someone at 66 cents on the dollar and have the cash now.”

“I just, I think that it'll go through no question. In fact, I bet it accelerates through.”

“Gemini has thirty-five million daily actives. I think ChatGPT has five hundred million monthlies, and actually Gemini is three hundred and fifty million monthly, so that's not that.”

“Like I found it really interesting that open AI was first to raise their hand this morning about You know, hey, we'll buy Chrome.”

“I really doubt that any of this will have any real impact. What will ultimately happen is the technology winds will change, and just like United Fruit, it'll eventually kind of unravel.”

“OpenAI buying Chrome would be the literal worst thing that could happen to the internet today.”

“I mean, it's literally like the global digital ad spend, Google and Meta dominate, right? And that's like a seven hundred and forty billion dollar market.”

“I mean, if you look at daily actives, Gemini is about three quarters of ChatGPT at the moment.”

“The courts are likely to say that the Apple Google search deal cannot continue in its current form for antitrust reasons.”

“I think it's okay to actually say search is dying. I've seen enough data in the last two or three weeks that suggests this is the case that it's actually, I mean, we're not talking about little two percent dips. We're talking about 45, 50% dips. Like these are…”

“No, it's dropped from like two Oh seven to currently one 52. So that's like 25%. Today it dropped eight percent alone, which on like a two trillion dollar market cap companies, like a hundred and fifty billion dollars, which is just crazy.”

“I've actually tried, I tried what you just described this week several times where I asked the same question to both. And ChatGPT always answers better in context, like in a way that makes me feel like the work is better than what Gemini answers for me. Not in…”

“Obviously the OS is the place to do this enforcement. If you care about it, it's one of those things. I've always found it fascinating that Apple and the community was able to like, put the blank, put the finger on Facebook or Google or Snapchat or whatever, w…”

“Another big story we had this week that kind of went under the radar because there's so much news is that Google's offering buyouts to employees in search and ads.”

“The problem is Anthropik's biggest investors are Amazon and Google, so that's why it's probably not gonna happen.”

“We're also not seeing any product innovation from basically anyone other than Google, at least at the Meg seven level, Google's the main product innovator right now.”

“Oh my god, this is going to make all the media sites so much more terrible.”

“But yeah, if you put all your eggs in the Google traffic basket, the game's been over forever, and it's about to get a lot worse.”

“Google, I will say Google's ads are wonderful for the information. Like, I will go on record saying that they are the best performing driving quality subs.”

“The idea that Google is going to balance the equation with micropayments on ads, that's not going to happen.”

“You know, my publisher group chats, half the content is, what's happening to your Google traffic today? Has there been an algo change? These are editors in chief of the largest publications of the world.”

“What you do is you keep behind a paywall, you charge a lot, you use that money to buy some ads from Google, it works.”

“Google, in an attempt to make publishers more happy because all of their traffic has dropped, especially with Gemini now rolling out on top of search results, launched a new product this week to help publishers monetize. Did you see this? It's called Offerwall…”

“His core business isn't threatened. Like, Google has to put chips down because, like, their core business is, like, too threatened. Meta has to put chips down, one, because Mark is just, like, hyper-competitive and cares about this. And because, like, they hav…”

“Again, I just think the future, honestly, is you have to model these things like a cast of characters, not a single person that is your confidant. And like, they're just a bunch of friends. There's gonna be more of them. And like, Grok is your Republican frien…”

“And like, that's why I think ultimately, like, the people like Google and Facebook do win, because like, they have a money making machine that regenerates the money. And so the money is free for them. Whereas like, if you're open AI, and you have to raise it, …”

“Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet are all in the 60 to 80% range right now. Apple is at 10%.”

“I think Anthropic probably does it before OpenAI because they need it more, right? So if you put the need before, although I think Google and Amazon will continue to fund them.”

“Google's not gonna sell Chrome ever.”

“The judge even chastised the DOJ for requesting Chrome to be spun off, saying that was such an extreme move and that the other remedies they were asking for would have like crippled the industry. And the highlight of it all is that they said Gen AI changed the…”

“I mean, the stock is up, what, 10% on this news, which is on a 2.7 trillion dollar, it's like two hundred seventy billion dollars. So what's amazing is that basically it's added half an open AI because of open AI.”

“Like, I just think, like, the chessboard has matured enough that, like, the children don't think they're gonna get a seat at it. So, like, there was this moment where, like, a bunch of small warlords with, like, two followers were like, I'm gonna be the next k…”

“And so now all of a sudden Google like open AI actually in Google. Have a deal. A cloud deal. It's, like, wild.”

“They kept Chrome and Google, they saved TikTok. There's, like, six things that because there's, like, this wave of anticipation and hope and excitement around this stuff, These other conversations just get people just move on.”

“And the Meg seven, not Apple, but the rest of them met a Google, Amazon, et cetera, are projected to spend about four hundred billion this year.”

“If that's true, then the top two coding models Gemini and Anthropic are trained on TPUs, not GPUs. And I think that's a really big deal.”

“Google and Apple are doing a Siri deal, so Siri is going to be powered by Gemini, essentially, until, until Apple, quote, figures it out, but it, there seems to be this pattern here of Apple realizing Google is, is pretty good at this stuff, and they'll be pre…”

“One, Meta is considering, and in very serious talks, over a billions of dollars, spending billions of dollars on TPUs in a future deal”

“Guys, what they're selling as a computer is pretty much available for free. We can quibble on the margins, but the free version of Gemini is the number of people who are going to find the difference. So that is a big problem. That's not a little problem. That'…”

“We reported that Google thinks it can get 10% of NVIDIA's business. Revenue.”

“Not just sentiment, also an execution. I mean, if you just look at the usage of Gemini year over year, one year later, I mean, they were the most dramatic mover.”

“I think it matters more to OpenAI to get that enterprise business than it does to Google.”

“What's going to happen at some point is someone's going to come out with one that's great. Right. And it's open and whatever, and it's free. And then you're going to be, and it's going to be totally controlled by like some hacker network that's going to do ter…”

“So like, I actually think when you think about the AI wars, which happens a lot, what's gonna happen is like in order to do good stuff beyond the like, you ask it a question or a chat bot, you give it access to such a level of scary security stuff, that the pe…”

“Google is winning the AI summarization battle in terms of like your existing product.”

“They're like the only ones in AI, other than, I guess, Google, that's executing a business model in AI that actually works.”

“Generating software, it was in competition now with Googling for software, but now generating software is not just in competition, it's going to win. It means that everyone can produce their own software for personal use or for enterprise use, because why woul…”

“The CEO job that John Ternus is inheriting is not the CEO job that Tim Cook inherited. Like, this is more of an alphabet moment, I think, for Apple. Like this is a three trillion dollar, four trillion dollar company that is, you know, has an enormously importa…”

“Even just the returns that they're going to see from their SpaceX and Anthropic investment is insane.”

“I think by the end of this year, Gemini is, is much higher in the rankings.”

“And then we charted of the, we just had earnings, of the backlogs in deals for Microsoft, Oracle, Google, and Amazon, what percentage are OpenAI's commitment and Anthropi's commitment? It's together, they're about half, ok?”

“Multi-billion dollar companies being created and invested in by DeepMind.”

“Google's new hardware, because they launched a Whoop competitor.”

“The normal Americans are going to go with the Google prices of this gas chart.”

“I think the fact that they have five products with more than three billion users that they can start implementing AI into, and even if it takes them longer to string it all together and unify the UI and the user experience across these things, they have the pe…”

“The most reason, the model's not even competitive. What's not competitive about it? It's not competitive. Like, it's just less good than every conceivable benchmark. It's less good than five, five and, ah, four, seven. Like, meaningful. Like, you wouldn't use …”

“I think they said they have over nine hundred million active users using Gemini.”

“Wildly expensive, right? Like compared to- Five X. Five X Google.”

“Well, I think that if you're anyone other than OpenAI and Anthropic, you are now an arms dealer in the AI race, right? You're either selling access or you're renting access to your giant H 100, H 200 clusters, right? Or you are giving people access to the mode…”

“And what it looks like they've done here is just taken, you know, state of the art Gemini models, both the on-device local flavor, as well as the cloud flavors and distilled them for their own purposes into these, you know, quote, Apple foundation models. Whic…”

“And then big brands came in. So of course, Google and every big tech brand comes in and then the whole thing does the same as South by Southwest did, which is jump the shark. And you have like Pepsi booths and all kinds of things.”

“He's not a real company like Google or Open or Meta or someone who actually five percent is meaningful, and he's not even winning the pure AI race. It's an anthropic is.”

“What Demis, the AI leader, Google, Sabis, proposed was, like, It was this idea that there should be a separate government body that reviews frontier models basically for 30 days prior to their release.”

“It's the OG of if you're really, really, really rich company, first of all, you don't want to put your talent back out into the world. You want to hoard your talent. And then two, it's much more pleasant because they built teams, there's loyalties or whatever …”

“Larry like is basically pulling all the strings he wants to pull and that's just fine for him. Like they, I actually think he's way more involved than people realize.”

“To be clear, I obviously have no, like, reporting and site information, but I have for years believed, and I don't think it's imminent, it's a race between Thomas Kurian, who runs Google Cloud, and Demis.”

“I mean, Gemini just hit a billion users.”

“Apple and Google or Android have both locks Wi-Fi location. You cannot access it as a developer.”

“No, the markets today is another buying opportunity for Google.”

“These clouds, I mean, I don't think Meta publishes it or Google publishes it, but my guess is that it's around ten million computers in like these clouds globally, if not tens of millions, and no one brain has any chance. Parents have absolutely no chance. And…”

“Canva was on this like IPO darling list for so long, and now Google launched Google Pix, P-I-C-S, and without saying they're basically going after Canva, they're going after Canva, and everything is like Gemini integration, Google workspace integration, you co…”

“But Meta is moving to it because it thinks it's better than Google for agents.”