The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 32 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Sam Lessin: DeepSeek made massive profits from an Nvidia trade
“They made so much money on their Nvidia trade. It doesn't, it's irrelevant.”
Sam Lessin: NVIDIA's current core business will fundamentally get commoditized
“Look, I think the Nvidia story, which is fascinating is you have a three trillion dollar company that's trying to call up the value chain because fundamentally what they currently do will get commoditized.”
Lessin: Nvidia does not justify its current meme-stock valuation
“You should not short NVIDIA because you can't short anything that's a meme stock that way, it's too dangerous, which is part of why they had such high valuations, but yes, it does not justify its valuation.”
Sam Lessin: Nvidia will crash because AI hardware spending is experimental
“It's gonna be fine for a while, but it's gonna crash because people are, because it's not, it's kind of experimental spend.”
Sam Lessin: Nvidia Creates Little Real Value Powering Redundant AI Cycles
“Nvidia is a three trillion dollar company selling a machine that takes meaning and generates a bunch of noise around it, and then flips around and compresses back the noise to the meaning, and like, what have you done, right? Like, you've created no value, rig…”
Stanford: Nvidia keeps compute debt off balance sheet via SPVs
“None of this goes back to NVIDIA. This is why Jensen's brilliant. He basically set this up as SPVs that will basically borrow against the taker pay agreements of the off takers of the neocloud guys that are saying we're all going to need 3000 dollars a month f…”
Wolfe: AI infrastructure debt has a dangerous duration mismatch
“And then you have like duration mismatch between like the hard assets and the financing. So like the chip, depending if you look at meta or Amazon debate, whether it's a three year or five year depreciation, but it's, you know, called three, the debt, Amortize…”
Nvidia server spot rental rates are down 22 percent week-over-week
“You know, I think if you look at NVIDIA, you know, rent, spot rental on NVIDIA servers is down, like, 22% week over week the last couple of weeks. But all of the capital is shifting to, Buying actual raw metal.”
Dave Morin: Nvidia faces one trillion dollars in chip demand over next year
“The sheer level of, I mean, one trillion dollars of demand for their chips over the next year.”
Lessin: Google projects its TPUs can capture 10% of Nvidia's revenue
“We reported that Google thinks it can get 10% of NVIDIA's business. Revenue.”
Lessin: Gemini and Anthropic Are Trained on TPUs Rather Than GPUs
“If that's true, then the top two coding models Gemini and Anthropic are trained on TPUs, not GPUs. And I think that's a really big deal.”
Sam Lessin: Meta Can Absorb AI Capex Failure; OpenAI and NVIDIA Cannot
“Like, I'd argue the cost for meta of belief isn't that high. No one really cares. They can fork over a few years of cash flow, right? Like, investors will look the other way. They'll kind of be like an Oculus. They'll be mad for a minute, but get over it, righ…”
Lessin: Custom AI Chips Do Not Need to Match NVIDIA's Performance
“They make a mistake thinking that a TPU or a Tranium or from Amazon or something a company develops itself has to be as good as NVIDIA. It doesn't because NVIDIA's margin is so big. It can actually be a fraction of as good as NVIDIA and still cost effective.”
Lessin: When circular Nvidia GPU deals unwind, they will unwind hard
“Oh my God, when this unwinds, it's going to unwind hard.”
Dave Morin: Startup developers overwhelmingly choose OpenAI's API over Anthropic
“All the developers that, you know, are, we're looking at investing in you, you're seeing it as the API that everybody's using. People talk about using the other ones, but, you know, despite Anthropic maybe having better software engineering models or Elon buil…”
Jessica Lessin: Nvidia's Rapid Chip Development Strains TSMC Relationship
“And NVIDIA, the king of this generation, of this AI race, is in a constant race to build, design, ship new chips at very rapid pace. And it is straining their relationship with TSMC.”
Sam Lessin: Nvidia Scrapped an LLM Over Scraping Netflix Content
“You know what also got reported this week was how NVIDIA scrapped their large language model they had been working on that had been stealing all this information, like, in content from Netflix and everyone else, and they realized, oh, shit, we really can't lau…”
Sam Lessin: NVIDIA's hardware design advantage is a ticking time bomb
“Going from being a designer of hardware that we know has a ticking time bomb until everyone else catches up to like the awesome business vision of vertically integrated stack where we own AI and the data around it and can do differentiated stuff. Great story. …”
Dave Morin: Thinking Machines' model beats Nvidia's Nemotron, rivals Chinese models
“Nemotron's fine. This is substantially better. This one's competitive with the Chinese models.”
Morin: Nvidia contributed engineering resources to OpenClaw
“NVIDIA has been really helpful to OpenClaw over the last many weeks. They've actually brought engineering resources to the bear.”
Jessica Lessin: Amazon prices Trainium 2 chips at 75% discount to Nvidia
“We moved the company's stock price earlier in the week by reporting that Amazon was undercutting, trying to undercut NVIDIA's latest project products with their second generation Tranium chip. At 75% off.”
Brit Morin: Short the rest of the AI asset class, not Nvidia
“Well, no, don't short NVIDIA. Short the rest of the asset class.”
Sam Lessin: Customers are racking Nvidia servers and underutilizing them
“People are racking all of these NVIDIA servers and then under utilizing them, right?”
Lessin: Shorting Nvidia is crazy, and I would never do it
“I would never short NVIDIA because that is a crazy fucking idea, right? Like I think part of the reason that some of these things rip is because people should be rightly terrified to short them”
Sam Lessin: NVIDIA stock will go up regardless of earnings report
“It literally doesn't matter what they report, the stock will go up.”
Morin: Jensen Huang Stated in an Interview He Did Not Wake Up a Loser
“Jensen just said, I didn't wake up a loser today. I'm not a loser. You know, it was like a, it was pretty intense.”
Jessica Lessin: Nvidia is currently tech's ultimate trading partner
“NVIDIA is sort of the ultimate trading partner at the moment.”
Lessin: AI mega-deals are about raw power dynamics, not dollars
“It's actually not about the dollars and cents. It's literally about this, like, meta power game of thrones.”
Dave Morin says Jensen Huang boasted about billionaires on Nvidia management
“Jensen was talking about the number of billionaires on his management team last week at the AI event in DC.”
Sam Lessin: Nvidia lost $600M in market cap post-DeepSeek
“Our guess was 10%, and we guessed three hundred million. It was actually closer to six hundred million.”
Dave Morin: Jensen Huang manages 100 direct reports in one weekly meeting
“Jensen from Nvidia talk about Nvidia's management structure. Like they seem to actually operate this way where he has something like a hundred direct reports. And they have one management team meeting every week, and they talk about all the problems, and it's …”