The Calls

⏳ Open 📼 The record

Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.

2open predictions
0due for another look
8closed calls →
349days to next prediction date
Everyone Sam Lessin (27)Jessica Lessin (26)Brit Morin (16)Dave Morin (13)Stuart Landesberg (3)Mike Brown (1)Ben Smith (1)Anatoly Yakovenko (1)
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Next up (2)

349 days left 2027-08-29
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2027
Dave Morin: SpaceX Starship will be viable for investment within 24 months
“Yesterday was a pretty strong signal that, you know, you can start investing in this new platform, and you're probably gonna see it in the next 24 months.”
Dave Morin Aug 29, 2025 ▶ 26:03 #114 Seed Rounds at $2B? The Dangers of AI Hype in VC With Tony Conrad · More or Less Podcast
473 days left 2027-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2027
OpenAI will become a publicly traded company by 2027
“They will be in the public markets by 27.”
Dave Morin Aug 21, 2026 ▶ 28:07 OpenAI Can’t Hold a Lead, Stripe Buys OpenRouter & AI Hits a Wall · More or Less Podcast

Closed calls (8) the full record →

Prediction Held up
Morin: DOGE will release a metrics dashboard to the public
“At least what I'm reading from what's going on, it's that they're going in there to get metrics implemented into a dashboard that at some point they're going to show to the American people. And so you will get the transparency.”
Dave Morin Feb 7, 2025 ▶ 57:39 #85: The $250M Meme Coin Experiment · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Held up
Morin: Voice AI will reliably book restaurant reservations within five years
“Five years from now, you will, Sam.”
Dave Morin Dec 6, 2024 ▶ 46:10 #76: In a World with 99.99% Accurate AI… (feat. Aaron Levie) · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Held up
Dave Morin predicts Google's Wiz acquisition will easily secure regulatory approval
“I just, I think that it'll go through no question. In fact, I bet it accelerates through.”
Dave Morin Mar 21, 2025 ▶ 20:36 #91: Google’s $32B Deal and a Silicon Valley Spy Scandal! · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Partly held up
Dave Morin: China will retain control of TikTok's algorithm despite divestment
“There's one little detail in there, which is that here we are at the very end of this very long, very arduous news story, and China will still retain control of the algorithm, right? Like, so they did win the war of attrition at the end of the day. Like, it so…”
Dave Morin Apr 4, 2025 ▶ 13:49 Can Tesla Survive? | More or Less #93 · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Dave Morin: College football and basketball teams will go private in 2025
“2025 will be the year that we see college football and basketball teams going private.”
Dave Morin Dec 20, 2024 ▶ 1:04:57 #78: 2024 Tech Company of the Year + 2025 Predictions · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Dave Morin: Most programming will be done in English by late 2025
“I think a year from now you know, most programming will be done in English. And I think that's the, there's almost no question.”
Dave Morin Dec 20, 2024 ▶ 11:25 #78: 2024 Tech Company of the Year + 2025 Predictions · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Partly held up
Dave Morin: Unprofitable OpenAI and Anthropic will be forced to increase prices
“Like at the rate they're having to raise capital and at the unprofitability of their business models, they can only increase prices from here.”
Dave Morin Oct 4, 2024 ▶ 20:30 #67: OpenAI Sets a Record and Will Apple Make Its Next Move? · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Dave Morin: NotebookLM could replace Google's Gemini UX within six months
“I mean, I think you might see in three, six months that the sort of Gemini core user experience is thrown out in favor of the notebook LM experience because it's just better for everyday consumers.”
Dave Morin Oct 4, 2024 ▶ 19:02 #67: OpenAI Sets a Record and Will Apple Make Its Next Move? · More or Less Podcast
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