Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already
assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger
checks it again against the public record.
Prediction Held up
Morin: DOGE will release a metrics dashboard to the public
“At least what I'm reading from what's going on, it's that they're going in there to get metrics implemented into a dashboard that at some point they're going to show to the American people. And so you will get the transparency.”
Prediction Held up
Morin: Voice AI will reliably book restaurant reservations within five years
“Five years from now, you will, Sam.”
Prediction Held up
Dave Morin predicts Google's Wiz acquisition will easily secure regulatory approval
“I just, I think that it'll go through no question. In fact, I bet it accelerates through.”
Prediction Partly held up
Dave Morin: China will retain control of TikTok's algorithm despite divestment
“There's one little detail in there, which is that here we are at the very end of this very long, very arduous news story, and China will still retain control of the algorithm, right? Like, so they did win the war of attrition at the end of the day. Like, it so…”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Dave Morin: College football and basketball teams will go private in 2025
“2025 will be the year that we see college football and basketball teams going private.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Dave Morin: Most programming will be done in English by late 2025
“I think a year from now you know, most programming will be done in English. And I think that's the, there's almost no question.”
Prediction Partly held up
Dave Morin: Unprofitable OpenAI and Anthropic will be forced to increase prices
“Like at the rate they're having to raise capital and at the unprofitability of their business models, they can only increase prices from here.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Dave Morin: NotebookLM could replace Google's Gemini UX within six months
“I mean, I think you might see in three, six months that the sort of Gemini core user experience is thrown out in favor of the notebook LM experience because it's just better for everyday consumers.”