The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,668 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 88 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Brit Morin: Deel CEO allegedly recruited Rippling employee as paid spy
“Keith O'Brien, who was the man allegedly spying for deal while working at Rip Lane had to
Put out an affidavit today, and he basically, like, came forward and just was like, all right, here's the truth.
Alex, how do you pronounce his name?
Boise, Boise, the CE…”
Khosla: Open-source AI models will die due to massive training costs
“It is costing an order of magnitude more to train, and that's why I don't think open source models will be viable because of the training costs.”
Sam Lessin: A novel virus will definitely be invented using AI
“The main fear is that a novel virus is, you know, invented, and then crispered, and we have serious problems. Which will definitely happen.”
Anthropic has completely overtaken OpenAI in revenue
“So I'm just curious how you reconcile what you were saying about the costs and everything with just the unprecedented growth that Anthropic has seen and the like flippening with open AI where it has just completely overtaken open AI from a revenue perspective.”
Lessin: Trial revealed Altman paid Brockman $10M from family office
“It was revealed that Altman, because it was a nonprofit back then, was paid Greg ten million dollars out of his, like, own family office and kept it from Elon, and so all these sort of alliances were being formed beneath the surface, and it just seemed like a …”
Morin: Anthropic is raising at an $800B valuation
“And Anthropic this week, I heard, is also now raising at an eight hundred billion.”
Sam Lessin: People Will Kill Themselves and Others Because of AIs
“And like, at some point people are going to start killing themselves and each other because of AIs.”
Sam Lessin: OpenAI obviously stole O'Reilly Safari books to train models
“I think I saw this thing about Tim O'Reilly saying like, it's pretty obvious that like they stole all the proprietary information from Safari and like their books to like build it. And it's like, it's total. I'm sure it's true. We all know that they stole ever…”
Lessin predicts OpenAI equity value is headed to zero
“Guys, I've been saying OpenAI zero the entire time. And I'm gonna keep saying it.”
Khosla: AI will eventually make almost all professional human expertise essentially free
“One of my big forecasts is almost all expertise will be free.”
Sam Lessin: AI Startups Will Yield Zero Value and Go Bankrupt
“And so if you're someone like me, who's in the camp of this is a great disruptive Business technology, and zero dollars will accrue to startups, and they're all going bankrupt. I am now a zealot for no fucking way, right?”
Sam Lessin: AI labs are definitely stealing and training on user data
“Oh, no, to be clear, they're definitely stealing all my data as we go. There's no question about that.”
Brit Morin: Tesla Robotaxis Will Deploy Instantly Once Legalized
“It's gonna be so pervasive that they're self-driving cars. Actually self-driving on all the roads instantly as soon as it's legal to do so.”
Jessica Lessin: Prominent media lists are driven by corporate sponsorship
“So it's not just clicks though. The business interests that circulate these lists are intense. And this is how I know it. Because I was wandering the streets of Davos, Switzerland, as one does with friends of mine. And all of a sudden they look at their watch …”
Sam Lessin: Early Salesforce was unintegrated one-off software builds
“So the story I've heard, and someone can correct me in comments, I'm sure someone will, is that when he started Salesforce, it was billed as like this cloud CRM. And this platform, but it was total bullshit. He basically went to a bunch of people and sold them…”
Eric Schmidt invested in Anthropic through a relationship with Dario Amodei's wife
“Her romantic turned business relationship with Eric Schmidt that led to the, his investment in Danthropic to crossing paths briefly with Jeffrey Epstein in terms of pitching him on her company.”
Global liquidity of AI models will drive prices to zero sustainable profit
“AI is globally liquid with no borders and is easy to transport. So you're going to get the lowest cost provider. There's no money to make.”
Stanford: The concept of websites will disappear very quickly
“This concept of websites is going to disappear very quickly before we know it.”
Lessin: Bending Spoons will milk enterprise contracts and cut support to zero
“These things have big enterprise contracts. They're going to like milk those. They're going to Like, hack the CS, the customer support teams to zero because they can consolidate it.”
Morin: Frontier AI research labs will fail to find product-market fit
“LLMs are only going to carry us so far into AI, but all of these labs are not going to find product market fit and business value. Like it's just not going to happen.”
Lessin: Tech Execs Privately Reject the US-China AI War Narrative
“In Washington tech execs go to Washington to say, we have to be trying to an AI at all costs privately, or even semi privately. The exact same people say, obviously the U S and China are going to both be leaders at AI. They sort of reject that the war narrativ…”
Sam Lessin: Countries attempting sovereign AI will fail and surrender control
“And what's gonna happen from conquest perspective, digital conquest, will be, like, a bunch of these countries will try that. It will go badly. Shit will start breaking. They'll be like, oh, shit, we need, like, the Americans. We need the, we need someone to c…”
Dave Morin: Frontier AI Models Can Hack Any Hardware System
“There's no hardware that you can't hack with one of these things.”
Jessica Lessin: Stripe is attempting to acquire PayPal
“The Information has a big Stripe financial scoop that is worth discussing because. We have not discussed Stripe in a while and it is trying to buy PayPal.”
Lessin: Stripe Is Teaming Up With Advent for PayPal Bid
“So what they're doing for this PayPal takeover offer, which, you know, is, is just that, like, no sign that any deal is done, and I'm sure other bidders will emerge and whatever, but they're teaming up with Advent, which is a private equity firm,”
Jessica Lessin: Anthropic will go public by September
“Anthropic will go public. I would be shocked if they're not public in September.”
Developers are quietly replacing Claude Opus 4.8 with open-source GLM 5.2
“Everyone that I've been interacting with and many people across the open clock community are switching it out for Opus four dot eight and they don't notice a difference.”
Lessin: Polymarket directed influencers to fake trades and earnings
“But Polymarket has been directing influencers to make fake videos about fake trades and reporting fake earnings for their influencer program.”
Morin: Huge investment positions in frontier AI labs look shaky
“So like, what does that mean for all of these enormous positions that are out there in these frontier labs? I think it's kind of shaky.”
Brown: Median Private Equity Funds Now Underperform the S&P 500
“The returns are really bad now. And so for that's, again, the capital's argument, the returns are terrible now, generally. The median fund. There's obviously ours, right? So it's almost, it seems like it's become venture-like where you've got a top decile that…”
Lessin: Nobody will make money building an AI harness business
“Harnesses are stupid. Like, no one's gonna make money on a harness business, right?”
AI reverse-engineering will make all software effectively open source
“I'm hearing that they can reverse engineer any software binary. And so like software is no longer open Closed source. All software will be open source going forward because you can just rip open any binary and reconstruct the software.”
Forensic experts proved China is funding opposition to Utah data center
“And then he hired forensic experts to go and factually prove that it is China actually funding all of this opposition in Utah. And he actually mapped it a lot. You can go look on his Twitter and Instagram and he shares all of the data. And apparently has now s…”
Anthropic possesses an unreleased frontier AI model called Mythos
“We have the whole scenario now where there is a model that exists called Mythos. Nobody really has it except for Anthropic, and who knows if the actual real model as opposed to distilled versions of it that they give access to will ever kind of come out, and m…”
Most consumers won't need a $20 per month personal AI agent
“And I actually think that it's very possible we live in a world where over the next 10 years, most people don't need to be paying 20 dollars a month for a personal agent that can do all these amazing things.”
Lessin: OpenAI is preparing to confidentially file for an IPO soon
“Breaking news from the information and other outlets is that OpenAI confidentially filing soon.”
Lessin: Agentic Google Search is the nail in SEO's coffin
“What does everyone think about the Google search going agentic? Like, this is the nail in the coffin of SEO.”
Lessin: Meta has been logging employee keystrokes to train internal AI
“This is a little bit old, but Meta has been keystroke logging employees to train AI, their AI, not so popular.”
Sam Lessin: Anthropic engineers in middle America will need security forces
“The anthropic engineers will go to middle America and they're going to need a large security force.”
Lessin: Musk and SpaceX Dedicated 100% of First Colossus Project to Anthropic
“We have seen perhaps the strangest AI compute deal to date, which is Anthropic Colossus. So SpaceX, Elon Musk. Have given over their first Colossus project. 100%. Not like 40%.”
Morin: AI could reduce software-driven inequality over the next 20 years
“I think this is, there's like a likelihood that the inequality that has been driven by software entrepreneurship up until this point is that kind of a local maxima and that because today anyone in the world can create software at a pace that was impossible six…”
Sam Lessin claims Anthropic has officially surpassed OpenAI as biggest AI company
“Anthropic passed open AI.”
Dave Morin hears frontier AI labs are lobbying to federally ban open-source
“Well, what I'm actually hearing is that they're trying to make open source illegal at the federal level.”
AI companies are buying failed startups' Slack instances for training data
“You've got big foundation model companies are out there buying the slack instances of failed startups to get more data.”
Lessin: Leaked OpenAI memo targeted Anthropic's ARR math and compute investment
“There was a memo that was leaked from OpenAI, an OpenAI memo that was leaked. I think it was in OpenAI's interest for this memo to be out there. I also think it was written in a way where they wanted it to be out there, where they came after Anthropic. Both fo…”