Changed Positions, every show

Same person, same subject, opposite position, months or years apart, on any of the shows in view. Both tapes, side by side. Reversed means no acknowledgement of the change was found; revised means the speaker acknowledged it or new facts explain it. 45 pairs, 26 of them reversed.

These are AI-matched pairs of public statements. The match can be wrong; the tapes are the record, and both play side by side so you can read the distance yourself. Report anything off from either claim page. full disclaimer →

shows every show 44 of 44
every show
Harry Stebbings on Snapchat 1968 days apart Revised 20VC ⤴ watch & share →

Stebbings praised Snapchat's high conversion rates in 2017 but shifted his focus to other platforms by 2022 as its popularity for business declined.

20VC Assertion Not checkable as stated
Harry Stebbings Reports 64% Open Rate on Snapchat Versus 36% Newsletter Rate
“I think for me in particular, the conversion is better than any other channel that I've seen. So if you compare it to like my newsletter, whereby I will have, say, a I think currently it's about a 36% open rate. My Snapchat is currently a 64% open rate”
Harry Stebbings Apr 3, 2017 ▶ 29:18 20VC: Homebrew's Hunter Walk on Why There Is No Series A Crunch, How To Package Portfolio Companies For The Next Round & Why The Bridge Round Is Not Always A Negative Sign?
20VC Disclosure
20VC Abandoned 100,000 Snapchat Followers Due to Declining Engagement
“I invested heavily in Snapchat stories when they were big for business. We gained a 100,000 plus fans there, but with the reducing popularity of the platform for business, The audience declined, and it was no longer worth the investment for me over other platf…”
Harry Stebbings Aug 24, 2022 ▶ 6:31 20VC: 10 Lessons on Scaling 20VC to 100M+ Downloads | How To Build an Audience and a Next-Generation Media Company
Ross Paquette on Maropost 1556 days apart Reversed Top Founders ⤴ watch & share →

Paquette stated in 2018 that his company's focus was organic growth and "not acquisition," but later detailed acquiring two companies.

Ross Paquette Is Strongly Against Raising Venture Capital
“It wasn't like we had to go out and raise capital. I'm very much against that process. The focus has always been to just, you know, kind of grow by a customer acquisition, not acquisition.”
Ross Paquette Jan 11, 2018 ▶ 4:06 901 SaaS: Bootstrapped Enterprise Marketing Maropost Passes $36m ARR
TOP FOUNDERS Disclosure
Maropost acquired Neto in 2020 and Retail Express in 2021
“So we acquired a company out of Australia called Neato back at the end of. 20 20. So right in the thick of COVID. And then acquired another coincidentally Australian business as well at the end of 2021. Clearly we have an affinity for Christmas deals. And that…”
Ross Paquette Apr 17, 2022 ▶ 7:43 Bootstrapped Maropost Hits $60m Revenue, 52% Profits, Doing $1.7b Secondary Right Now
Chamath Palihapitiya on Snowflake 1182 days apart Reversed All-In ⤴ watch & share →

In 2022, Palihapitiya called Snowflake a "must own" business; in 2025, he argued its consumption-based pricing model destroys businesses in the long term.

ALL-IN Opinion
Chamath: Snowflake belongs in the "must-own" category alongside FAANG stocks
“Well, I would put snowflake in the list of these must own high growth software businesses, right? You know, the fangs tend to be in the must own category.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 26, 2022 ▶ 25:04 E73: Late-stage VC markdowns and mistakes, market strategy, Ukraine/Russia update with Brad Gerstner
ALL-IN Insight
Chamath: Consumption-based pricing models destroy software businesses in the long term
“Consumption-based pricing. It doesn't work, and what I mean is, you can have some adoption in the short term. The best example is Snowflake, but in the long term, it destroys your business, and the reason is because you don't know which data is valuable, and y…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 21, 2025 ▶ 1:10:53 IPOs and SPACs are Back, Mag 7 Showdown, Zuck on Tilt, Apple's Fumble, GENIUS Act passes Senate
Sean Weisbrot on Vr 1181 days apart Reversed We Live to Build ⤴ watch & share →

In 2022, Weisbrot said team collaboration's future was in AR and VR. By 2025, he stated humans will never use VR to collaborate.

WE LIVE TO BUILD Prediction Not checkable as stated
Weisbrot: Team collaboration will move to AR/VR within 3 to 7 years
“The future of team collaboration, all of that is inside of AR and VR. And if my company isn't prepared for that and building for that starting now, even though it's going to take three to five, maybe seven years for teams to be using these tools ubiquitously, …”
Sean Weisbrot Apr 6, 2022 ▶ 9:05 35% Calmer in 20 Minutes: Why VR Beat the Top Meditation App
WE LIVE TO BUILD Prediction Not checkable as stated
Weisbrot: Humans will never use VR for collaboration in the workplace
“Humans are never going to use VR to collaborate like that. Maybe they'll use AR.”
Sean Weisbrot Jul 1, 2025 ▶ 15:11 29,000 Zoning Codes - Brian's AI Agent Will Know All of Them
Sean Weisbrot on AR 1181 days apart Reversed We Live to Build ⤴ watch & share →

Sean Weisbrot initially stated that the future of team collaboration was in AR and VR, but later claimed humans would never use VR to collaborate.

WE LIVE TO BUILD Prediction Not checkable as stated
Weisbrot: Team collaboration will move to AR/VR within 3 to 7 years
“The future of team collaboration, all of that is inside of AR and VR. And if my company isn't prepared for that and building for that starting now, even though it's going to take three to five, maybe seven years for teams to be using these tools ubiquitously, …”
Sean Weisbrot Apr 6, 2022 ▶ 9:05 35% Calmer in 20 Minutes: Why VR Beat the Top Meditation App
WE LIVE TO BUILD Prediction Not checkable as stated
Weisbrot: Humans will never use VR for collaboration in the workplace
“Humans are never going to use VR to collaborate like that. Maybe they'll use AR.”
Sean Weisbrot Jul 1, 2025 ▶ 15:11 29,000 Zoning Codes - Brian's AI Agent Will Know All of Them
Jason Lemkin on Shopify 1153 days apart Reversed 20VC ⤴ watch & share →

In 2023, Lemkin called VCs "losers" for buying Shopify stock; by 2026, he stated he was "betting on" Shopify himself.

20VC Opinion
Lemkin: VCs tweeting about buying public Shopify shares are "losers"
“And so when I see VCs on Twitter talking about how they're looking at buying some shares of Shopify, honestly, I think they're losers.”
Jason Lemkin Jan 13, 2023 ▶ 26:21 Jason Lemkin: WTF is Going On in VC? Are LPs Investing in New Funds? | 20VC #965 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Opinion
Lemkin: Growth momentum is software's only defense in the AI age
“I'm betting on momentum is the only thing that's going to save us. Save us in the age of AI. So I'm betting on overpriced Palantir, Cloudflare, which is re-accelerating and benefiting from AI, and Shopify which is gaining market share.”
Jason Lemkin Mar 12, 2026 ▶ 1:07:30 Anthropic vs The Pentagon: Who Wins? | The Data Center Arms Race | The Ultimate Stock Picks · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Harry Stebbings on Andreessen Horowitz 1073 days apart Revised 20VC ⤴ watch & share →

Stebbings explicitly acknowledges his changed stance on Andreessen Horowitz, noting he is a big bull on the firm now where he was not before.

20VC Disclosure
Stebbings: Hot seed rounds raised by executive founders consistently underperformed
“I looked at the seeds, and I looked at those that haven't really worked, and all of those that haven't really worked have often been head of product at Twitter, head of product at Twitch, head of product at amazing company, the hottest of hot seed rounds with …”
Harry Stebbings Nov 21, 2022 ▶ 7:07 Semil Shah: Lessons Learned Scaling from a $1M to a $50M Fund | 20VC #951 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Opinion
Stebbings: Bullish on Andreessen Horowitz as partner quality matches boutique firms
“They are as good as the partners at smaller firms with three to five partners, and they have been fantastic. Like, I am a Big bull on Andreessen now where I was not before.”
Harry Stebbings Oct 30, 2025 ▶ 1:22:14 OpenAI Restructuring: Who Wins and Who Loses & Mercor Raises $350M at a $10BN Valuation · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Chamath Palihapitiya on NVIDIA 1035 days apart Reversed All-In ⤴ watch & share →

Palihapitiya previously predicted Nvidia's profits would dilute due to competition, but later praised the company for its exceptionally high margins and massive profitability.

ALL-IN Prediction Partly held up
Palihapitiya: Nvidia's margins will compress as major tech companies build custom chips
“In the end, Nvidia's gains today will be then spread across Nvidia. Facebook will have their own chip. Amazon will have their own chip. Google already does. Apple will have their own chip. All the memory companies will be in this space, right? So then the prof…”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 26, 2023 ▶ 1:04:45 E130: DeSantis's Twitter Spaces, debt ceiling, Nvidia rips, state of VC, startup failure & more
ALL-IN Opinion
Chamath: Nvidia is unbelievably accretive despite being mispriced like SaaS
“Except Nvidia. Which is the most unbelievably accretive, well-run company, highest margins, you know, making two hundred billion dollars. And they're treating it like they're treating ServiceNow and Snowflake.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 27, 2026 ▶ 32:49 Anthropic's Generational Run, OpenAI Panics, AI Moats, Meta Loses Major Lawsuits
Harry Stebbings on Series A 1011 days apart Reversed 20VC ⤴ watch & share →

Stebbings previously called Series A the best risk-to-reward entry point, but later declared it the worst place to invest due to high valuations.

20VC Opinion
Series A Is Currently the Best Risk-Reward Entry Point in Venture
“I think Series A is actually the best risk to reward insertion point in venture stay.”
Harry Stebbings Oct 20, 2023 ▶ 16:41 20VC: NEW FORMAT: Harry Stebbings on Why Seed Pricing is as High as Ever, Why Series A is the Best Place to Invest Today, Why Growth Founders Need to Reshape Expectations, Why M&A Windows Remain Shut and When Will IPO Windows Crack Open
20VC Opinion
Series A is the worst stage due to 200x ARR valuations
“I think Series A is the worst place to be today, and my partners always hate me for this, because all Series A founders are like, great, we won't go and see them but it's the worst place to be. You have, like, one to three million in revenue, and you're at 200…”
Harry Stebbings Jul 27, 2026 ▶ 34:33 Will Open-Source Threaten Anthropic's Business & Do Margins Matter in a World of AI | Matt Murphy
Jason Lemkin on AI 995 days apart Reversed the Official SaaStr Podcast ⤴ watch & share →

Lemkin previously stated AI would only make B2B software a "smidge" better, but later argued jaw-dropping AI capabilities are required for customer retention.

SAASTR Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lemkin: AI Will Probably Only Slightly Improve Business Process Software
“Most of the stuff at Sastr is business process software. It's changing the way businesses do support, or sales, or marketing, or compliance or procurement, and AI probably is just going to make them a smidge better.”
Jason Lemkin Oct 25, 2023 ▶ 6:07 What SaaStr CEO and Founder Jason Lemkin Really Thinks About AI, Sales & Lead Gen In 2024
SAASTR Insight
Lemkin: B2B Apps Must Deliver AI Jaw-Droppers Quarterly to Retain Users
“Not only do you have to deliver a beautiful app, it has to surprise and delight you at least once a quarter where your jaw drops that it does something you didn't even expect because of AI. Your jaw should drop because of the agentic capabilities of a B to B p…”
Jason Lemkin Jul 17, 2026 ▶ 36:13 How Agents Will Steal Your Customers. Plus: The $10K App Our Agent Replaced and the $14 Migration
Chamath Palihapitiya on ChatGPT 992 days apart Reversed All-In ⤴ watch & share →

In 2023, Palihapitiya predicted chat AI usage would decay due to narrow use cases, but in 2026, he called ChatGPT an indispensable consumer utility.

ALL-IN Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Consumer chat LLM usage will decay to a fraction of its peak
“There's some pretty useful use cases, but narrow, where these chat interfaces are very useful, and the usage will decay to that Number. And that number is probably a fraction of what the peak was.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 9, 2023 ▶ 19:23 E136: Hacking the pod, Threads launches, Fed minutes, immigration, balloon farce, heart health
ALL-IN Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: ChatGPT will become an essential utility consumers refuse to cancel
“And by the way, in the pandemic, remember what we saw, the two things that people refused to cancel, Was not your mortgage payment or any car payment. You were willing to go into arrears and into default. The two things that people would always keep was the ce…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 27, 2026 ▶ 21:58 Anthropic's Generational Run, OpenAI Panics, AI Moats, Meta Loses Major Lawsuits
Sean Weisbrot on Angel Investing 896 days apart Revised We Live to Build ⤴ watch & share →

Weisbrot shifted his investment strategy from angel investing to income dividends, citing the failure of many of his angel investments as the reason.

Weisbrot: VC power-law investing is just bad money management hiding failure
“I have heard some of those ideas that you just assume most of the companies are going to fail. And I feel like that's just bad, like money management being kind of swept under the rug. So that's why I like to do angel investing because I'm going to do everythi…”
Sean Weisbrot Dec 5, 2023 ▶ 31:22 Turn Your Self Audio Down and Watch Everything Change
Weisbrot: Shifting to Dividend Investing After Enduring Angel and Startup Failures
“The focus for me personally is getting into income dividends. Because I tried angel investing and a lot of them failed. I've tried investing in my own startup. I should shut that company down.”
Sean Weisbrot May 19, 2026 ▶ 23:31 His Former Boss Later Became His Employee
Steve Ells on Kernel 881 days apart Revised How I Built This ⤴ watch & share →

Ells initially planned to open 15 Kernel locations, but later acknowledged closing the first two after less than a year to retool the concept.

Steve Ells: Kernel raised $36M Series A to open 15 restaurants
“I just completed my series a round and raised thirty six million. And so, so, you know, that'll take us through the next couple of years and that will be a lot to open up 15 restaurants.”
Steve Ells Nov 9, 2023 ▶ 26:40 When a robot cooks your lunch with Steve Ells of Chipotle and Kernel
Steve Ells shut down both Kernel restaurants after less than a year
“So we closed down the two Kernel restaurants after less than a year spent a couple of months you know, retooling, and opened counter service”
Steve Ells Apr 9, 2026 ▶ 2:10 Advice Line with Steve Ells of Chipotle
Jason Lemkin on Tech IPO Market 839 days apart Revised 20VC ⤴ watch & share →

Lemkin's shift from predicting a wave of tech IPOs to a more pessimistic outlook reflects an evolving market forecast based on two years of new economic data.

20VC Prediction Didn’t hold up
Lemkin predicts 26 tech companies will IPO in H2 2024
“And I may have the timing all wrong. I'm too optimistic, but I think there's 26 of them, which is one a week. I think there's 26 good companies at 200 that can IPO in 26 weeks in the back average.”
Jason Lemkin Aug 11, 2023 ▶ 50:56 DEBATE: State of Seed Investing w/ Jason Lemkin, Sam Lessin, Frank Rotman & Harry Stebbings | E1047 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Jason Lemkin: The tech IPO market will not reopen next year
“I don't think we're going to see it. I don't think we earned it this year. I don't think we have so many. You're better than Figma. You're better than Netscope. It's a high bar.”
Jason Lemkin Nov 27, 2025 ▶ 1:22:12 Anthropic Raises $30B from Microsoft & NVIDIA & NVIDIA’s Core Business Faces TPU Threat · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Chamath Palihapitiya on Republican Party 799 days apart Reversed All-In ⤴ watch & share →

Chamath called Trump a "weight on the neck" of the GOP in 2022, but later praised his "hostile takeover" of the party.

ALL-IN Opinion
Chamath: Trump is a weight on the Republican Party
“Trump is a, just a weight on the neck of the Republican party, and it's time to just get rid of him.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Nov 12, 2022 ▶ 7:20 E104: FTX collapse with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong + election results, macro update & more
ALL-IN Opinion
Chamath: Donald Trump successfully executed a hostile takeover of the Republican Party
“And I think what the great thing that Donald Trump did was he basically conducted a hostile takeover of the Republican Party.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 19, 2025 ▶ 34:59 Ted Cruz: Trump's First Week, Texas vs. California, Immigration, DOGE, Greenland
Jason Lemkin on AI 776 days apart Reversed 20VC ⤴ watch & share →

Lemkin initially expressed skepticism that AI would drive growth, but later predicted "jaw-dropping" growth numbers fueled by enterprise AI adoption.

20VC Opinion
Lemkin: Skeptical that AI will drive top-line revenue growth for SaaS
“I think AI can create some efficiency, but growth? Growth? Let's see if it can create growth. I'm skeptical it can create growth, right?”
Jason Lemkin Jan 4, 2024 ▶ 17:06 Jason Lemkin: Predictions for 2024 - What Does a Trump Administration do for Startups? | E1099 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Held up
Lemkin: Fortune 500 will actively replace human employees with AI by year-end
“By the end of this year, that, that train is going to be so far out of the station that, that these growth numbers will be jaw dropping because we will decide enterprises will the fortune 500 or global 2000 will decide we are replacing humans with AI.”
Jason Lemkin Feb 19, 2026 ▶ 15:03 Thrive Raises New $10B Fund | OpenAI Buys OpenClaw | Stripe at $140B: Is Adyen Wildly Undervalued? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jason Lemkin on Box 758 days apart Revised 20VC ⤴ watch & share →

In 2024, Lemkin saw no evidence of AI boosting incumbent revenue, but by 2026 he observed AI had returned Box to double-digit growth.

20VC Assertion Supported
Lemkin: SaaS incumbents see no revenue boost from AI features yet
“So far the evidence is no. So far it says the incumbents are gonna, they're gonna do great things with AI, great, great things. The product's gonna be much better, but it's not clear they're gonna get any revenue boost from it. No one's saying that none of the…”
Jason Lemkin Jun 3, 2024 ▶ 24:36 Jason Lemkin: PluralSight S*** the Bed & The Next IPO Candidates | E1160 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Supported
Lemkin: AI features helped Box return to double-digit growth
“It has led to a boost at Box. It hasn't turned Box into a hundred percent grower. It's gotten it back to double digit growths.”
Jason Lemkin Jul 2, 2026 ▶ 16:12 Coinbase Cuts AI Spend by 50% | Kalshi's $40B Valuation & Impending IPO | The Year for SaaS Roll-Ups · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aravind Srinivas on Advertising 740 days apart Reversed 20VC ⤴ watch & share →

Srinivas previously predicted advertising would be Perplexity's highly profitable revenue engine, but later argued ads fundamentally corrupt user trust in conversational search products.

20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Srinivas: Advertising will be Perplexity's primary revenue engine if executed well
“I would predict it'll be advertising. If we crack it, yes, it'll be advertising. If we don't crack it, if we are not, if we don't, if we haven't grown to that level in user basin, or if we grew and didn't figure out how to advertise really well, I think it'll …”
Aravind Srinivas Jun 5, 2024 ▶ 51:18 Aravind Srinivas:Will Foundation Models Commoditise & Diminishing Returns in Model Performance|E1161 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Advertising in conversational search inherently corrupts user trust
“And so the chat interface doesn't capture that user intent, that user behavior right now, which is why it was never a great fit for advertising. And it also fundamentally corrupts the trust that people have when they go into a product and they want the accurat…”
Aravind Srinivas Jun 15, 2026 ▶ 10:21 Perplexity CEO: Micron Will Be More Valuable Than Meta & How Export Controls Helped Not Hurt China · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jason Lemkin on Private Equity Firms 727 days apart Revised the Official SaaStr Podcast ⤴ watch & share →

Lemkin updated his market assessment in 2025, noting that the previously reliable private equity interest in break-even, high-NRR SaaS companies ended after 2023.

SAASTR Insight
Lemkin: Private equity will buy any break-even SaaS company over $20M ARR
“Private equity firms will buy any SaaS company with high NRR that are break even north of twenty million.”
Jason Lemkin Oct 25, 2023 ▶ 35:32 What SaaStr CEO and Founder Jason Lemkin Really Thinks About AI, Sales & Lead Gen In 2024
SAASTR Assertion Not checkable as stated
PE Acquisitions of Classic SaaS at 6-10x Multiples Have Disappeared
“Private equity firms aren't interested either. And there used to be from 2012, 2013 until 2023. So there was a decade where if your growth was decent, but not great in SAS, but your burn rate was low and your NRR was high, maybe VCs wouldn't touch you, but a p…”
Jason Lemkin Oct 22, 2025 ▶ 40:50 The State of AI + Software: Where It’s Going - Fast
Chamath Palihapitiya on Equities 667 days apart Revised All-In ⤴ watch & share →

Palihapitiya's shift from a bullish to a bearish outlook on equities reflects drastically different macroeconomic conditions, including changing interest rates, between 2020 and 2022.

ALL-IN Prediction Didn’t hold up
Chamath predicts negative risk-free rates will make long equities highly profitable
“You're basically going to get paid to be long equities because your risk-free rate is zero and will soon be negative.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 9, 2020 ▶ 47:01 E7: California's collapse, how SPACs are opening the markets for growth stocks & more
ALL-IN Prediction Not checkable as stated
Palihapitiya: Stock market equities face severe pressure without buyer support
“Equities get really under pressure. There is no scenario where there's a bid to equities.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 8, 2022 ▶ 25:28 E86: Macro outlook: jobs, housing, inflation + Dutch farmers protests & EU climate missteps
Alex Kantrowitz on Perplexity 663 days apart Revised Big Technology ⤴ watch & share →

Kantrowitz explicitly acknowledged becoming less bullish on Perplexity, shifting from seeing it as a curiosity-satisfying tool to expecting competitors to absorb its functionality.

Kantrowitz: Traditional search will remain for navigation, AI for curiosity
“I think that search is going to be, continue to be a way that we use web navigation and AI search like perplexity will be more to satisfy curiosity. And engage with different topics.”
Alex Kantrowitz Mar 20, 2024 ▶ 44:18 Predicting AI’s Next Advances — With Suhail Doshi
BIG TECHNOLOGY Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kantrowitz: Perplexity's functionality will be swallowed by Gemini and ChatGPT
“I'm much less bullish on perplexity than I was. I just think that like their functionality is just going to be swallowed up by the Geminis and the chat GPTs of the world.”
Alex Kantrowitz Jan 13, 2026 ▶ 51:22 AI’s Steve Jobs?, Big Tech AI Chaos, 2026 Crystal Ball
Dave Morin on Open Source Models 644 days apart Reversed More or Less ⤴ watch & share →

Morin predicted in 2024 that startups would avoid open-source AI models due to technical hurdles, but in 2026 noted his portfolio was widely adopting them.

MORE OR LESS Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dave Morin: Startups Will Avoid Open-Source AI Due to Hosting Complexity
“I don't think that startups by default are probably going to use these. A lot of people don't have the skill set to boot these things up and to create it from the ground up, even though it's open source.”
Dave Morin Jul 26, 2024 ▶ 28:32 #57: Zuckerberg’s Open Source AI Manifesto · More or Less Podcast
MORE OR LESS Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dave Morin says every portfolio founder is replacing proprietary models with open-source
“Every entrepreneur in my portfolio is like swapping out open source models for everything. And of course you would. Right. Cause that's your margin.”
Dave Morin May 1, 2026 ▶ 18:45 Elon Musk vs OpenAI Trial, Google Cloud Surge, Meta’s Blocked Acquisition, Anthropic Winning · More or Less Podcast
David Friedberg on Venture Capital 616 days apart Reversed All-In ⤴ watch & share →

In 2023, Friedberg predicted a significant decrease in venture capital for startups; in 2025, he predicted a surge in capital deployment due to AI.

ALL-IN Prediction Held up
Friedberg: LP capital and startup funding will fall significantly in aggregate
“On a day to day basis, it means there's gonna be less companies that are going to get funded, but more importantly, it's gonna be less LP money going into venture. And there's going to be less capital available to fund startups in aggregate by a significant am…”
David Friedberg Sep 22, 2023 ▶ 1:21:58 E146: Did the Fed break the VC model? Plus IPOs, M&A, revaluing unicorns & more
ALL-IN Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: AI returns will drive more venture capital into tech startups
“In fact, what I think we're going to see is much more venture capital flowing into new tech startups, much more capital being deployed because the return on the invested capital is so, so, so much higher because of AI.”
David Friedberg May 31, 2025 ▶ 6:59 AI Doom vs Boom, EA Cult Returns, BBB Upside, US Steel and Golden Votes
Benedict Evans on Metaverse 567 days apart Reversed Another Podcast ⤴ watch & share →

Evans predicted in 2021 that the metaverse would merge with Web3, but in 2023 declared the metaverse "dead" and a "meaningless term."

ANOTHER PODCAST Prediction Not checkable as stated
Evans: In 10 years, the metaverse will run on Web3 infrastructure
“Go forward 10 years and the two of them sort of merge. In that, you know, if everyone is doing, if they could both work, and everything that you do in the metaverse will be web three, will be running on web three.”
Benedict Evans Nov 15, 2021 ▶ 32:23 What we know about web 3 so far
Evans: The metaverse is dead and was always a meaningless term
“Obviously metaverse is dead which is good because it's a meaningless term and no one knows what anybody else might.”
Benedict Evans Jun 5, 2023 ▶ 6:32 Apple Vision
Chamath Palihapitiya on Economy 518 days apart Revised All-In ⤴ watch & share →

Palihapitiya's economic outlook shifted from bullish in late 2020 to predicting a contraction in early 2022, reflecting changed macroeconomic conditions.

ALL-IN Opinion
Chamath: Super bullish on the economy and tech heading into 2021
“So I'm generally like, I'm super bullish on the economy. I'm super bullish on tech.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 3, 2020 ▶ 1:02:06 E9: Trump has COVID, First debate reactions, Coinbase letter response & more
ALL-IN Prediction Held up
Chamath: The U.S. economy will contract into a recession
“We will contract as an economy.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 5, 2022 ▶ 22:03 E71: Russia/Ukraine deep dive: escalation, risk factors, financial fallout, exit ramps and more
Chamath Palihapitiya on Cryptocurrency Market 518 days apart Reversed All-In ⤴ watch & share →

Palihapitiya went from predicting the crypto market would grow to $10 trillion in 2021 to claiming nothing could revive it in 2023.

ALL-IN Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2026
Chamath predicts crypto market value will reach $10 trillion
“And you have three trillion dollars of value that'll go to six trillion and then go to 10 trillion.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 9, 2021 ▶ 30:38 E50: Crypto investing deep dive, Facebook's whistleblower fallout, Chappelle's new special & more
ALL-IN Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Even a traditional bank run cannot revive the crypto market
“Nothing can revive the crypto market as we're seeing today, even in a run on the bank, which is exactly what everybody was afraid of in a Bitcoin world. That thing is down.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 11, 2023 ▶ 1:20:09 E119: Silicon Valley Bank implodes: startup extinction event, contagion risk, culpability, and more
Jillian Manus on Ride IQ 502 days apart Reversed the Pitch ⤴ watch & share →

Jillian Manus committed $50,000 to invest in Ride IQ but later passed on investing, citing a lack of defensibility.

THE PITCH Disclosure
Jillian Manus commits to investing $50,000 in Ride IQ
“I'm in for 50 K.”
Jillian Manus Oct 18, 2023 ▶ 15:45 1. "This Startup Pitch for Equestrian Tech Just Changed the Game for Horse Training Technology!"
THE PITCH Disclosure
Jillian Manus passes on Ride iQ, citing a lack of defensibility
“So I'm not gonna invest right now. I feel there's a lack of defensibility here, and I'm not quite sure how you're going to win.”
Jillian Manus Mar 4, 2025 ▶ 23:14 #121 Ride iQ: Peloton for Horses
Chamath Palihapitiya on Snap 475 days apart Reversed All-In ⤴ watch & share →

Palihapitiya claimed in 2024 he had never looked at Snap's performance, despite discussing its steady user growth and performance in 2022.

ALL-IN Assertion Supported
Palihapitiya: Snap's active user growth remains extremely steady around 350M
“If you look at the MAU growth of snap, it's actually been extremely steady and they've had an incredible March forward. And I think that they're roughly around 300 and fifty million.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 22, 2022 ▶ 14:59 E101: Ye acquires Parler, Snap drops 30%, macro outlook, VC metrics, valuing stocks & more
ALL-IN Disclosure
Chamath refuses to analyze Snap due to lack of voting rights
“I've never taken more than one second to look at that company. And the reason is there's just zero ability for me to have any useful say. So I've never honestly looked at its performance. I've never studied a single characteristic. I've never trended it.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 9, 2024 ▶ 23:29 E165: Vision Pro: use or lose? Meta vs Snap, SaaS recovery, AI investing, rolling real estate crisis
Brit Morin on Gemini 441 days apart Revised More or Less ⤴ watch & share →

Brit Morin stated she did not trust Gemini in September 2024, but later announced she had switched to primarily using it over ChatGPT.

Brit Morin: I don't trust Google's Gemini AI model "at all anymore"
“I don't even trust Gemini at all anymore.”
Brit Morin Sep 13, 2024 ▶ 30:11 #64: Meta vs. Apple: the Future of Open vs. Closed Tech · More or Less Podcast
MORE OR LESS Disclosure
Brit Morin says she switched her primary daily AI to Google's Gemini
“Guys, I switched in the last two weeks. I have become primarily Gemini, not GPT.”
Brit Morin Nov 28, 2025 ▶ 35:51 OpenAI vs Google vs Meta: Business Model War · More or Less Podcast
Harry Stebbings on NVIDIA 441 days apart Revised 20VC ⤴ watch & share →

Stebbings avoided Nvidia in late 2023 due to its high valuation, but bought heavily in early 2025 following a 16 percent price drop.

20VC Opinion
Stebbings: AI Upside Is Already Priced Into Microsoft and Nvidia
“And my hard thing is like, as a general capital allocator and capitalist who wants to make money, I think the upside is already priced into Microsoft or Nvidia, where I'm not looking at them like, oh, there's a buying opportunity now because they're so richly …”
Harry Stebbings Nov 15, 2023 ▶ 56:00 Des Traynor: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI | E1082 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Disclosure
Harry Stebbings bought Nvidia stock following post-DeepSeek market drop
“I just bought a shitload of NVIDIA, because they dropped 16% on the thesis that the increasing efficiency means that obviously we wouldn't need as much NVIDIA chips.”
Harry Stebbings Jan 29, 2025 ▶ 38:56 Jonathan Ross: DeepSeek Special - How Should OpenAI and the US Government Respond | E1253 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jason Lemkin on Jony Ive 412 days apart Revised 20VC ⤴ watch & share →

Lemkin initially predicted OpenAI's hardware device would be a huge success, but later revised his view to say it is likely "on the bubble" due to changing circumstances.

20VC Prediction Didn’t hold up
Lemkin: OpenAI's hardware device will launch within a year for $20
“This is going to be huge. It will launch in a year. It will be massively subsidized. So it'll be 20 bucks for this device. Okay. They will figure out the form factor. I don't know what the right combination is, whether it's embedded in your ear, like the baris…”
Jason Lemkin May 29, 2025 ▶ 47:53 OpenAI’s $6BN Jony Ive Deal & YC Is Both Chanel and Walmart, and Has Officially Won! · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2029
Lemkin: OpenAI will likely cancel or pause its hardware project
“Listen, if I had to breathe the tea leaves, hardware is probably on the bubble. This was one of Sam's initiatives that made sense when everything was working and OpenAI had an unassailable lead over, over its competitors, right? Now everything's, you know, we …”
Jason Lemkin Jul 16, 2026 ▶ 8:01 Zuckerberg Back on X Challenging Codex & Claude Code | SK Hynix’s $26BN IPO · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Elena Verna on Growth Team 393 days apart Reversed 20VC ⤴ watch & share →

In 2021, Verna stated new growth teams must initially rely on intuition; by 2022, she called making growth teams rely on intuition a mistake.

20VC Insight
Elena Verna: New growth teams must rely on intuition before data
“Any new growth team has to initially rely on intuition or just overall feeling within the company of what needs to be worked on because you don't have data at the beginning.”
Elena Verna Oct 28, 2021 ▶ 34:55 20 Growth: The 3 Levers to Successful Growth Models, The 3 Types of Growth Hires Startups Need To Know, The 3 Stages All Successful Growth Teams Need To Go Through with Elena Verna, Advisor @ MongoDB and HP
20VC Insight
Verna: Hiring a growth team before establishing data infrastructure is a mistake
“Not having data team ready for growth team. So hiring growth teaming before you have data analysts or data literacy in your company before you're data informed or hiring growth and not attaching any data analysts into their for you. Because if you do that, wha…”
Elena Verna Nov 25, 2022 ▶ 9:42 20VC: When to Make Your First Growth Hire? Senior or Junior? How To Onboard Them? How To Monitor Their Progress? from Growth Leaders @ Facebook, Instagram, Lyft, Instacart, Miro and more
Alex Kantrowitz on Siri 365 days apart Reversed Big Technology ⤴ watch & share →

Kantrowitz initially claimed Apple's AI strategy required the technology to work "really well," but later argued that mere "incremental progress" would ensure success.

Kantrowitz: Siri's 15-year record shows Apple's AI is far behind competitors
“I think that's actually a fine strategy, but only if your AI works really well. And well, the state of Siri the actual ship stuff over the past 15 or so years suggests that it doesn't. They have to get their AI house in order and catch up”
Alex Kantrowitz Jun 14, 2025 ▶ 42:19 Sam Altman’s Gentle Singularity, Zuck’s AI Power Play, Burning Of The Waymos
BIG TECHNOLOGY Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kantrowitz: Apple's revamped Siri will clear low consumer expectations bar
“I think it's gonna work. I think that the bar was also so low that they have to just show a little incremental progress, and everyone's gonna be like, wow, they did it, and I think that's absolutely what's gonna happen. They will clear the bar.”
Alex Kantrowitz Jun 15, 2026 ▶ 50:29 SpaceX’s IPO Triumph, Anthropic’s Fable Fumble, OpenAI’s Price War
Shaan Puri on Luna 363 days apart Revised My First Million ⤴ watch & share →

Puri was highly optimistic about his Luna investment in 2021, but later acknowledged the total loss after the token's value collapsed to zero.

Shaan Puri held Terra's Luna after a 100x gain in 2021
“It started the year at, you know, maybe a dollar. It's at currently, you know, a hundred dollars. So it's about a hundred X in a year. It's been a great investment for me and I continue to believe that, that it's going to work.”
Shaan Puri Dec 31, 2021 ▶ 1:39:51 The Milly Awards 2021
Shaan Puri lost 100% of his investment in crypto token Luna
“People know my portfolio is essentially tech stocks and crypto. Tech stocks down somewhere between 40 and 85% this year. Crypto down 75% this year, or sometimes a hundred percent in certain cases. I think Luna has to be my pick because it went to zero.”
Shaan Puri Dec 29, 2022 ▶ 50:21 The 2022 Milly Awards (#401)
Jensen Huang on NVIDIA 350 days apart Reversed Acquired ⤴ watch & share →

Huang initially said he wouldn't have started NVIDIA had he known the hardship, but later claimed he was taken out of context and would.

ACQUIRED What-if
Huang says he wouldn't have started NVIDIA if he knew the suffering
“The reason why I wouldn't do it, and it goes back to why it's so hard, is building a company and building a video turned out to have been a million times harder than I expected it to be, any of us expected it to be. And at that time, if we realized the pain an…”
Jensen Huang Oct 16, 2023 ▶ 1:20:17 NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang · Acquired
ACQUIRED What-if
Huang: I would start NVIDIA again knowing how it turned out
“Of course, I, it was taken out of context because I was asked about that several times after that, and of course I would start the company if I knew it would turn out this way.”
Jensen Huang Sep 30, 2024 ▶ 1:11:40 Acquired LIVE from Chase Center (with Daniel Ek, Emily Chang, Jensen Huang and Mark Zuckerberg) · Acquired
Chamath Palihapitiya on US GDP 350 days apart Revised All-In ⤴ watch & share →

Over the course of a year, Palihapitiya updated his economic forecast from predicting a GDP contraction to expecting over 3% growth in Q2.

ALL-IN Prediction Held up
Palihapitiya: US unemployment will rise and GDP will shrink
“So I think unemployment is going back up. I think GDP is going to shrink.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 14, 2024 ▶ 1:13:57 Elon gets paid, Apple's AI pop, OpenAI revenue rip, Macro debate & Inside Trump Fundraiser
ALL-IN Prediction Held up
Palihapitiya: US Q2 GDP growth will be between 3% and 4%
“What you're probably going to see in Q two is a really hot GDP print. If I'm a betting man, which I am, I think the GDP print's going to come in above three, not quite four, but above three.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 31, 2025 ▶ 1:02:15 AI Doom vs Boom, EA Cult Returns, BBB Upside, US Steel and Golden Votes
Michael Schwimer on Big League Advance 336 days apart Reversed Capital Allocators ⤴ watch & share →

Schwimer initially claimed MLB teams were paying for his company's predictive model, but later said teams were uninterested and too cheap for outside resources.

CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Not checkable as stated
Big League Advance Sells Highly Accurate Pitcher Injury Prediction Models to MLB
“They built a model that was truly revolutionary to where we can predict When a pitcher's gonna get hurt with incredible accuracy to the point where MLB teams are paying for our service now”
Michael Schwimer Oct 15, 2018 ▶ 38:11 Michael Schwimer – Moneyball as an Investment Strategy (Capital Allocators, EP.72)
Professional sports teams are extremely cheap about paying for outside analytics
“We quickly found out that teams were not interested in this. They have their own, they're very cheap. Teams are extremely cheap when it comes to this type of stuff. They're not cheap when it comes to paying players, but for outside resources, it's not that gre…”
Michael Schwimer Sep 16, 2019 ▶ 13:56 Michael Schwimer - Sports Betting at JAMBOS (First Meeting, EP.08)
Tom Hulme on OpenAI 336 days apart Revised 20VC ⤴ watch & share →

Hulme initially expressed reluctance to invest in OpenAI, but later called it a reasonable investment, citing its $12 billion run rate and downside protection.

20VC Opinion
Hulme: GV would not invest in OpenAI at a $90B valuation
“I would struggle To make that investment today. No.”
Tom Hulme May 8, 2024 ▶ 50:12 Tom Hulme: Lessons from a 24x Angel Track Record, 275x on Robinhood & Making Billions on Uber |E1150 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Opinion
Hulme: OpenAI is a good investment at a $12 billion run rate
“I it doesn't mean I think it's the best gen AI investment, but if I was sitting independently, do I think it's a good investment now when your downside is somewhat protected and they're at a twelve billion dollar run rate? Let's say it's a 20 times forward mul…”
Tom Hulme Apr 10, 2025 ▶ 1:18:40 Tom Hulme & Stan Boland: Lessons from Jensen Huang & How to Fix the UK Tech Ecosystem · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Greg Isenberg on AI Slop 312 days apart Reversed the Startup Ideas Podcast ⤴ watch & share →

Isenberg shifted from calling AI slop "super valuable" for driving traffic to dismissing it as a "waste of time" less than a year later.

Isenberg: AI-generated short-form 'slop' is highly valuable for driving app traffic
“Now, some people call this AI slop, and I understand that but some of them are super valuable, like this one, you know, it got 320,000 likes, so people obviously like it, and how powerful would it be if you owned a bunch of accounts that had like A 152 100,000…”
Greg Isenberg Jul 9, 2025 ▶ 7:33 I'm REVEALING ALL the Vibe Marketing Secrets (NO Gatekeeping)
STARTUP IDEAS Prediction Not checkable as stated
Isenberg: AI slop will fail in 2026 while high-quality AI media thrives
“I don't, I'm not a believer that AI slop is going to work in 20, 26 and beyond. Like, I think that that's frankly a waste of time, but I do think that using AI to create media companies that are actually high quality, maybe with some, with a human in the loop …”
Greg Isenberg May 18, 2026 ▶ 1:05:53 9 biggest startup ideas right now (AI, B2C, mobile etc)
Dan Shipper on Claude Code 311 days apart Revised Lenny's Podcast ⤴ watch & share →

Shipper noted his team relied heavily on Claude Code in 2025, but nearly a year later observed that the era of CLI-based AI tools was ending.

Shipper: Everyone at Every uses Claude Code to build software
“Claude code, everyone inside every, that's basically what we use. If you're building something, you're using Claude code.”
Dan Shipper Jul 17, 2025 ▶ 36:50 The AI-native startup: 5 products, 7-figure revenue, 100% AI-written code. | Dan Shipper (Every)
Shipper: The CLI era for AI agents is over in favor of GUIs
“CLIs are over. We speed ran the CLI era. It was nice while it lasted, but I think it's pretty clear. It's not that CLI, sorry. It's not that CLIs are going to completely go away. Obviously they've been around for the last like, 30 years or 40 years or 50 years…”
Dan Shipper May 24, 2026 ▶ 31:25 AI predictions: Job markets, Codex beats Claude, and the death of org charts | Dan Shipper
Jason Lemkin on MongoDB 296 days apart Revised 20VC ⤴ watch & share →

Lemkin's assessment of MongoDB's performance shifted from signs of recovery to worsening conditions over ten months, reflecting changing market realities and new earnings reports.

20VC Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: Atlassian and MongoDB are bouncing off business bottoms
“When I look at what Atlassian is saying, like, they're bouncing off the bottom, and Mongo's bouncing off the bottom, and other folks are seeing things improve.”
Jason Lemkin Aug 11, 2023 ▶ 54:55 DEBATE: State of Seed Investing w/ Jason Lemkin, Sam Lessin, Frank Rotman & Harry Stebbings | E1047 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Demand environment is worsening for Salesforce, MongoDB, and Workday
“Yamini got on the last call a couple of weeks ago and said, yeah, we saw a little bounce at the end of the year and HubSpot had a great quarter, but it's not any easier. She said, it's not one lick easier right now. So HubSpot, not any easier Mongo worse. Sale…”
Jason Lemkin Jun 3, 2024 ▶ 36:55 Jason Lemkin: PluralSight S*** the Bed & The Next IPO Candidates | E1160 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Chamath Palihapitiya on Crypto 288 days apart Reversed All-In ⤴ watch & share →

Palihapitiya previously praised crypto as an incredibly disruptive force, but later stated it is no different from traditional finance.

ALL-IN Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: DAOs destroying traditional wealth is positive for the world
“So when you add all these three things together, I think to me it's the most incredibly positively disruptive force I have seen. I think it will destroy wealth. I frankly couldn't give a fuck. And I think it's better for the world.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 14, 2021 ▶ 1:06:04 E46: False Ivermectin narratives, regulatory grift, wartime mentality in solving issues & more
ALL-IN Opinion
Chamath: Crypto market dynamics are identical to traditional financial cycles
“We've had to listen to every millennial and Gen Z market observer in crypto tout how this is not like boomers, and they turned out to be the same. I mean, this is the thing of all. It's like of all of the times you've had to hear how it's so different, it turn…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 30, 2022 ▶ 11:15 E85: SBF's crypto bailout, Zendesk sells for ~$10B, buyout targets, US diplomacy, AlphaFold & more
Rory O'Driscoll on Anthropic 224 days apart Reversed 20VC ⤴ watch & share →

In 2025, O'Driscoll claimed Anthropic had access to "infinite" compute, but in 2026 he stated the company was "light on compute."

20VC Opinion
O'Driscoll: OpenAI and Anthropic No Longer Need Microsoft or Amazon
“In both these cases, the small company won. They got the money, they got the critical mass, they got the credibility, and now they've pulled away. And neither on top of now open AI needs Microsoft or Amazon at this point. They don't need them for money. They d…”
Rory O’Driscoll Sep 18, 2025 ▶ 49:41 Opendoor CEO, Kaz Nejatian: OpenAI and Oracle, How Can Either Afford to Do This · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Opinion
O'Driscoll: OpenAI has compute but flawed models; Anthropic lacks compute
“OpenAI got one job right, they have enough compute, and they got the model wrong, so that's why they're in trouble. And Entropic did it the exact opposite way, right? They got the model perfect. In fact, they may have over-succeeded, and as a result of that, t…”
Rory O’Driscoll Apr 30, 2026 ▶ 19:49 Anthropic Raises $45B but Falls Short on Compute & Thoma Bravo Hand Back Medallia Keys to Creditors · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sam Parr on Real Estate 211 days apart Revised My First Million ⤴ watch & share →

Parr initially outlined a strategy to invest tech profits into real estate, but later expressed regret and wished he had used funds instead.

Parr: Personal wealth strategy is shifting tech profits into real estate
“And the kind of the strategy that my wife and I had was let's just try to get somewhat wealthy with tech stuff and have that continue to make cashflow and, you know, selling companies and pile a lot of it into real estate because that's something, because like…”
Sam Parr Jun 1, 2022 ▶ 38:36 Behind The Scenes Of The Billionaires' Mastermind (TIGER 21) | Michael Sonnenfeldt Interview
Sam Parr regrets buying real estate instead of investing in funds
“I regret buying real estate. I wish I didn't own any real estate, and I wish I just invested in other people's funds.”
Sam Parr Dec 29, 2022 ▶ 50:03 The 2022 Milly Awards (#401)
Des Traynor on OpenAI 191 days apart Reversed 20VC ⤴ watch & share →

Traynor reversed his willingness to bet on OpenAI's valuation, though he consistently maintained his prediction that it would surpass $90 billion.

20VC Prediction Held up
Traynor predicts OpenAI valuation will surpass $90 billion
“I think on the whole, I'd make the bet that they'll pass 90 in value.”
Des Traynor Nov 15, 2023 ▶ 39:28 Des Traynor: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI | E1082 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Held up
Des Traynor: OpenAI valuation will pass $90B, but Amazon poses risks
“I don't think I would, and the reason, whilst I think they'll pass 90, the areas I'd be wary of is Amazon.”
Des Traynor May 24, 2024 ▶ 7:18 Sam Altman, Arthur Mensch and more discuss:Which Startups Are Threatened vs Enabled by OpenAI?|E1156 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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