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Venture capital, startups and investing, on tape.

Every prediction, opinion and bold claim from We Live to Build: extracted from the transcript, verified against the tape, checked against cited public sources, playable at the exact moment it was said.

3,477 statements on the ledger →
426assessments with sources → 316episodes (so far) →

1,391 insights853 assertions506 disclosures440 opinions268 predictions19 what-ifs

predictions → 16 held up 7 didn’t hold up 2 partly held up
assertions → 247 supported 84 contradicted 70 partly supported
Changed Positions Same person, opposite position. Both tapes, side by side. 3 on record Star Treatment Does prominence change the questions? Every guest, plotted. prominence vs. host pushback Supercuts Didn’t hold up · Held up · Said with certainty exact-quote reels The Argument Index Debate potential by speaker, and the companies with the most bearish calls. debate potential, ranked The Numbers Museum Every figure ever claimed, checked where possible. 694 figures Entities Every company, fund and idea the show has opinions about, sources attached. 4,776 on the record The Calls Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. 12 open The Pulse What the Valley talks about, year by year, since 2020. who said it first Straight Answers Who answers the question asked, measured. Every moment timestamped and playable. 40 questions not answered directly The Wisdom Wall The lessons worth keeping. No fortune cookies. 1,391 insights The Graph Seven years of people, companies and ideas as one map. explore connections Speaking Style Measured from raw, unedited recordings only. 0 speakers scored

Recently on the ledger full ledger →

Assertion Contradicted
Tulla: An anti-inflammatory diet can put ALS in check
“Even ALS, I mean, can be put in check with the similar type of diet.”
Ari Tulla Nov 28, 2023 ▶ 37:37 Doctors Said She'd Never Have Kids. Diet Changed That.
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Szamosszegi: The Bitcoin mining network is almost carbon negative
“The entire network at this point in time is almost carbon negative.”
William Szamosszegi May 15, 2023 ▶ 8:32 Bitcoin Mining Is Almost Carbon Negative and Nobody Is Covering It
Opinion
Arata: Severe fallout for minor infractions is a necessary cultural correction
“And in this period of time some men are going to get their heads chopped off metaphorically for misdeeds, regardless of the largesse or the minuteness of the infraction. And so that's an unnecessary thing that happens, but it's also necessary until the attenti…”
Ray Arata May 18, 2022 ▶ 15:39 Why Men Hung Up After 20 Minutes But Women Had a Long List
Opinion
Siddar: China's rigorous system prevents erratic leaders like Donald Trump
“I'm more worried about Donald Trump being the president of the United States than any person who can be the Chinese president, because I know the Chinese system will not produce a crazy president.”
Cenk Siddar Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 33:41 The Hidden Drought That Toppled Governments Across a Whole Region
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gupta: AI models will eliminate the analytical layer in data pipelines
“I strongly believe the middle layer, which is the analytical layer, is going to go. The bunch of models that we are having, like, whether it is Anthropic or OpenAI, they are going to eliminate the interpretation part, which is mostly the analytical.”
Saurabh Gupta Aug 18, 2026 ▶ 20:51 3,000 Tools and Enterprises Only Use 15% of Them
Opinion
McGregor: SIM card infrastructure should replace representative government with direct democracy
“These individuals, a small percentage of people representing all of us, that methodology, whatever it is, is not working. What if we could use the SIMS to enable and understand all the good standing people in the world? And what if major issues could be voted …”
Travis McGregor Jun 9, 2026 ▶ 34:18 He Presented from the Hip on Stage and Invented a World First in 90 Days

How the calls resolved the full record →

Assertion Supported
Barr: 6% Monthly Growth Over 7-Year IPO Timeline Yields $133 Million
“So if you take a company at one million dollars and you have them grow six percent month over month for the seven year median to IPO time, you get one hundred thirty three million dollars.”
Jeremy Barr Dec 5, 2023 ▶ 15:00 Turn Your Self Audio Down and Watch Everything Change
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Bimani: A Recession Has Already Started and Will Hit Hard Soon
“Right now, we're getting ready for the recession. I know it started. People are not fully aware of it, but it's going to hit hard in the next couple of months.”
Glenn Bimani May 7, 2024 ▶ 12:31 He Gave Them the Dollar They Asked For, Then Walked Away
Assertion Supported
Rocha: Log4j exploit triggered remote code execution via logged HTTP strings
“Well, it was an attack in which A specific string would be sent with HTTP requests that that then this would be logged by this logging mechanism called log for J. But in the background, that information could be properly processed and triggering some download …”
Dr. Eduardo Rocha Jun 21, 2022 ▶ 23:58 Data You Encrypted Today Can Destroy Your Life Within 10 Years
Assertion Contradicted
Narasin's first institutional investment, LendingClub, was the decade's largest tech IPO
“The first institutional investment I ever made was a company called Lending Club, which when it went public was the largest tech IPO of the decade.”
Ben Narasin Jul 14, 2026 ▶ 1:12 Happiness Found Him Through a Crappy Movie at 2AM

Open predictions the full timeline →

495days Meiring: AI agents will communicate directly with each other within 18 months Ray Meiring · prediction date: 2028-01-21 642days Indries: Indistinguishable digital AI avatars are one to two years away Robert Indries · prediction date: 2028-06-16 1000days McGregor: AI infrastructure management will accelerate 6G rollout to three years Travis McGregor · prediction date: 2029-06-09 1618days Dragan: Direct brain-stimulated AR holograms will arrive within 10 years Mike Dragan · prediction date: 2031-02-17

Track records all people →

Ordered by full support rate, then by supported count. Minimum three resolved. Partly supported claims count as resolved but not as fully supported, same as everywhere on the ledger.

PersonEpsStatementsSupportedPartly supportedContradictedFull support rate
Frank Hepworth 1 13 5 0 0 100%
Cecil Robles 2 26 5 0 0 100%
Blair Hurst 1 18 5 0 0 100%
Tad Fallows 1 16 4 0 0 100%
Dr. Eduardo Rocha 1 9 4 0 0 100%
Anthony Frasier 1 15 4 0 0 100%
Toby Zhang 1 8 4 0 0 100%
David Windley 1 12 3 0 0 100%

From the Wisdom Wall all quotes →

“a lot of the times you'll have founders who say, oh, like my original team can't scale with me, which, you know, sometimes that's correct, but a lot of times it's just a, a misdiagnosis. Like when,…”

“So if you just rely on your experience from 10 years ago, even though you may have been successful, I think that's actually makes you like really dangerous because now you're like credible and wrong.…”

“For us, what we see is that the willingness to spend money on software has significantly changed because of AI. AI is not seen as a tool the way that any software application has been seen. AI is seen…”
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