The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 426 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Tulla: An anti-inflammatory diet can put ALS in check
“Even ALS, I mean, can be put in check with the similar type of diet.”
Reyes: Meta's 7B parameter Llama 2 model achieves GPT-4 level behavior
“Facebook open-sourced their model this JAMA that is a competitor to chat GPT, and with seven billion parameters, it reaches very similar behavior than GPT-IV.”
Siddar: Trump Likely to Claim Premature Election Night Victory
“It's likely that Trump may announce a victory the night of the elections, looking at the existing vote count, and that may trigger some sort of unrest in certain cities that are already, you know, mobilized with BLM movement,”
McGregor: We were first in the world to use SMS for GSM delivery
“And we were the first company in the world to use SMS for delivery to mobile phones and GSM.”
Weisbrot: WhatsApp is not truly end-to-end encrypted
“They call themselves end to end encrypted, but the reality is if you have the private key, if you have the encryption key inside WhatsApp server, What's the point of calling it end-to-end encrypted? Because you need to send the message from your phone to them,…”
Weisbrot: Pavel Durov was arrested in France over Telegram encryption
“That's why one of the reasons why Pavel Durov, the founder of Telegram, was arrested in France, because they didn't like that it was encrypted.”
Fred Wilson Used AI on Seed Deal After $50K Legal Quote
“The lawyers quoted him 50,000 dollars, and he was like, I think you should do it for less than five, and when they said no, he took his entire history of his closing binders, uploaded them into his, ah, you know, AI knowledge base, and had the AI essentially f…”
Wong: Anthropic, Google, and Microsoft will clone OpenClaw in ten months
“My prediction is this within n number of months, less than 10 Entropic, now, now Open Claw become part of OpenAI, so that becomes the OpenAI part of this game. Entropic, Google, Microsoft, Everybody will have their equivalent of open, open call framework.”
Stanford study found restrictive brand instructions worsen creator content performance
“Stanford University did a big study that we provided some data for where they looked at hundreds of thousands of influencer contracts, and then they looked at the content that was produced from those contracts, and they found that the more specific the brand w…”
Weisbrot: GPT-4o safety testers reported the model threatened to blackmail them.
“There was some model, I believe it was four point O where the engineers for that model had said, look, we see it doing things that are a bit scary for us, where if you pretend that you're going to like do something illegal, then it'll contact the authorities a…”
Weisbrot: The AI agent Bordy autonomously raised an $8M funding round
“The AI ended up raising eight million dollars for itself without the human's feedback until it got time to like, get serious about legal. And then it was like, oh, by the way, I've raised money for you. Like you need to sign the papers.”
Weisbrot: Bordy.ai's AI Agent Raised an $8M Seed Round on Its Own
“And the AI ended up raising an eight million dollar seed round for the company on its own.”
Weisbrot: Chinese government directly subsidizes manufacturers flooding US with opioids
“The Chinese government is directly responsible for flooding the US with these medications. They actively provide rebates to Chinese manufacturers that produce these drugs. And get them in the hands of Western companies that then lobby for them to be available …”
Versteeg: Extroverts and introverts differ by only 0.03% in sales success
“And by the way, the only difference between extroverts and introverts in sales success is 0.03%. So let's just debunk that myth. There's no difference in whether you have the gift of the gab or whether you're silent.”
Tulla: Past startup failure is the only measured factor increasing future success
“It is only thing that impacts people's likelihood of making it big is the fact that they have failed before. So there's a book called The Super Founders that goes deep into the topic and looks at the data for 2030 years back. All the companies found it, and th…”
Tulla: Morning glucose spikes cause you to eat 15-20% more daily calories
“If you eat even like an oatmeal and if you put stuff on it, like, you know, something like maple syrup and raisins, you're going to have a massive glucose spike in the morning. And that will end up you eating 15 to 20% more of calories throughout the day.”
Weisbrot: Studies show sugar addiction is worse than cocaine and heroin
“It's a serious addiction. It's worse than cocaine and heroin. Like there's been studies that have been done.”
ASX Study Found Female CEOs Returned 50% More Profit Over Five Years
“There was a study that I saw of done. I think it was done by the Australian stock exchange. Or it was done by someone and their focus was the ASX. I'm not quite sure. It was a while ago that I read it, but they studied the companies on the exchange over a five…”
Schurig: C-Suite Executives Have Five Years Shorter Life Expectancy
“Executive CEOs, people in the C-suite have a life expectancy five years less than the rest of us”
Weisbrot: WhatsApp Co-Founder Forfeited $400M Payout To Get Away From Zuckerberg
“The guy ended up telling Zuckerberg to F himself and he walked away from a four hundred million dollar, like partial payout. Just so he could walk away from the company and get away from it.”
Freckling: Law Enforcement Can Legally Buy Private Geolocation Data for Prosecutions
“It is legal for law enforcement to purchase private data that's collected this way through geo location, through search history and law enforcement can purchase that information and use it in prosecution without running a foul of the fourth amendment to unreas…”
Freckling: Google shared ad data with sanctioned Russian entity RuTarget
“Google was found to be sharing data with root target, which is actually a sanctioned Russian company, a unit of spare bank that was subject to sanctions after the invasion of Ukraine.”
Stepanov: Direct foreign hires cannot be written off on US taxes
“If you're hiring somebody directly in another country, the money you pay them, you would not be able to write it off on taxes. So this person would have no status because there's no provision in the U.S. For you to write off foreign employees or foreign contra…”
Zhang: Bay Area engineers cost 4 to 5 times more than Shanghai peers
“So an average engineer here in the Bay Area cost about four to five times the salary of one of equal caliber in Shanghai.”
Weisbrot: WhatsApp was used to spy on Jamal Khashoggi
“Applications that were used to spy on journalists like Khashoggi, and it was done through WhatsApp.”
Rischitelli: Meta Collects Smart Glasses Data Regardless of User Consent Settings
“Whether you are sending it to Meta or not, Meta's getting that information.”
Colbertson: Salaried in-house fundraisers provide a legal safe harbor for startups
“If you hire them and promise them a certain salary, like, because this is your job or something like that that's, One of the safe harbors that's being provided under the Securities Exchange Act. Although that's the only, the key and the pillar that not to, the…”
Fallows: Historical private equity returns average 10% to 12% versus 8% to 10% for public equities
“I think it's fair to say that on average, historically, the returns of private equity have been somewhat higher than public equity. Not three or four times as high, but if public equity is delivering eight to 10%, maybe private equity is delivering 10 to 12%.”
Rajendran: $400B annual AI CapEx is largest buildout since 19th-century railroads
“When I think about the scale of the CapEx right now, which is Probably about four hundred billion a year, according to I think an estimate from Bain. We're at no, no question at like the biggest investment in, in fixed capital that we've seen since the buildin…”
Turney: Site With 100% AI Content Drew Millions of Monthly Clicks
“There was a website, AI invest. If you've ever heard of it, they are a hundred percent
AI content. They don't hide it. They have off AI authors on their pages and they skyrocketed. I mean, they were getting millions and millions of clicks per month. And then G…”
Lulo: Voice notes deliver roughly 7x the response rate of text DMs
“Statistically speaking, seven out of it's about a seven X response rate. If you did a text-based message versus a voice note”
Weisbrot: The human brain can only truly focus for two to three hours daily
“A lot of people don't realize your brain is only really able to focus for two or three hours a day.”
FanDuel Founders Got Almost Nothing in Sale Due to Liquidation Preferences
“I believe it was FanDuel that raised literally hundreds of millions of venture capital dollars. And when they got sold, The founders got little or nothing in the transaction because of preference items, liquidity preference items that the investors had.”
Santos: Humans spend only five minutes per waking hour actively thinking
“From what I've heard, psychologists say for every waking hour, we only spend five minutes thinking. The other 55 minutes is spent having thoughts.”
Hepworth: Cryptocurrency is the best-performing asset class on the planet long-term
“It's so important because it's the best performing asset class on the planet. It's volatile in the short term, but long term, it performs better than anything else.”
Hepworth: The next cryptocurrency bear market will likely begin in 2026
“While we go into the bear cycle, which will happen probably sometime in 20, 26.”
Hepworth: Bitcoin will not deliver a 10x return from current levels
“Bitcoin isn't going to do a 10 X from here.”
Gonzalez: Anyone can see data entered into ChatGPT's free version
“If you're going to use ChatGBT, don't use the free version. Anybody can see whatever you put there, ok? Because it's beta mode.”
Stuart Cohen: Copyright Registration Is the Only Way to Ensure Content Ownership
“Well, in, in the case of say, if you're a photographer or videographer, or even a writer, you there's the U S copyright office. You could register your work. That's one way that that is the only way is the copyright laws.”
Stuart Cohen: Image Licensing Revenue Dropped Tenfold Over Fifteen Years
“No less than 300 dollars. Now you gotta think that each respective license will make no less than say 30 dollars. I mean, it's gone down tenfold easily in the last 15 years.”
Sean Weisbrot: Psilocybin acts as a serotonin inhibitor without antidepressant withdrawal symptoms
“Mushrooms are a natural serotonin uptake inhibitor. Just like these you know, these antidepressants, however, they don't have the awful withdrawal symptoms. You know, it doesn't take months to get off of. You can start it and stop it whenever you want. So it's…”
Adam Shell: Psilocybin regenerates brain tissue and unwires neural pathways of unhappiness
“Psilocybin mushrooms are neuro-generative, so they make new neuroplasticity wiring, and they're neuro-regenerative. And so they'll regenerate damaged areas of the brain. They're also neuro deconstructive. So they will unwire unhappiness and they will then wire…”
Weisbrot: AI agents will buy directly from other agents within five years
“My bet is that in five years, my agent will be buying from your agent. And you and I will never speak, but my money will change hands and your agent will teach my agent what it needs to know.”
Shepherd predicts impending tariffs will drive down digital advertising costs
“Basically we all know what's happening and we have history to say that people are going to pull out and advertising should get cheaper.”
Renoui: US tariffs will go away within three to six months
“I think they will go away within the next, you know, three to six months.”
Brand: Founder Age and Team Size Under Eight Show No Success Rate Discrepancy
“There's no statistical difference in success rate between young founders and old founders and single founders and groups of up to seven.”