The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 3,477 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 23 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Tulla: An anti-inflammatory diet can put ALS in check
“Even ALS, I mean, can be put in check with the similar type of diet.”
Szamosszegi: The Bitcoin mining network is almost carbon negative
“The entire network at this point in time is almost carbon negative.”
Arata: Severe fallout for minor infractions is a necessary cultural correction
“And in this period of time some men are going to get their heads chopped off metaphorically for misdeeds, regardless of the largesse or the minuteness of the infraction. And so that's an unnecessary thing that happens, but it's also necessary until the attenti…”
Siddar: China's rigorous system prevents erratic leaders like Donald Trump
“I'm more worried about Donald Trump being the president of the United States than any person who can be the Chinese president, because I know the Chinese system will not produce a crazy president.”
Gupta: AI models will eliminate the analytical layer in data pipelines
“I strongly believe the middle layer, which is the analytical layer, is going to go. The bunch of models that we are having, like, whether it is Anthropic or OpenAI, they are going to eliminate the interpretation part, which is mostly the analytical.”
Indries: AI will autonomously negotiate contracts and resolve lawsuits within 20 years
“You'll have, you know, AI just building the most amazing contract And the AI negotiating with other AI, you know, making compromises on each side, you know, just so that they can, you know, reach settlement or whatever. Right. When you will sue someone, 20 yea…”
McGregor: SIM card infrastructure should replace representative government with direct democracy
“These individuals, a small percentage of people representing all of us, that methodology, whatever it is, is not working. What if we could use the SIMS to enable and understand all the good standing people in the world? And what if major issues could be voted …”
Taber: Outdated Advice From Credible Investors Can Actually Kill Startups
“So if you just rely on your experience from 10 years ago, even though you may have been successful, I think that's actually makes you like really dangerous because now you're like credible and wrong. It's one thing when you're just wrong and you don't have cre…”
Weisbrot: OpenClaw destroys computers, doxes users, and makes unwanted purchases
“There have been countless instances of people installing OpenClaw, and it destroys their entire computer. Or it doxes these people's information, or it spends thousands of dollars buying them things they didn't want, didn't ask for.”
Weisbrot: OpenClaw is too destructive to exist and should be deleted
“I don't think it should exist at all. I think the code base should be deleted. I don't think people should have the opportunity to figure out how to make it safer because the opportunity for destruction is just way too great.”
Weisbrot: AI will collapse global financial systems within five years
“I think the smart people understand that there's only really a few years before five. Right. I think five is generous before things are really bad in that regard. And so like people say, oh, we're in cycles. Like, I don't think we're in a cycle. I don't think …”
Wightman: AI has permanently eliminated the need to hire entry-level agency staff
“In terms of knowledge work, which PR absolutely is, in terms of knowledge work, AI has meant for us that we haven't needed to hire particularly more junior people. We have been able to outsource a lot of the tasks that might have been the work I did when I was…”
Weisbrot: Businesses Without AI Will 100% Fail Within 24 Months
“And I think if a business doesn't have any AI in the next 24 months, they will be dead. I think a hundred percent chance they will not make it if they don't have AI.”
Santos: CEOs Who Do Not Intentionally Create Problems Should Be Fired
“CEOs, if they are not intentionally creating problems for their organization to solve, they should be fired or retrained immediately.”
Jamison: Venture capital's heyday is over due to excess capital
“And also when it comes to venture, I think venture's heyday is kind of over, at least for now. I think there's too much money has entered the space, so too many companies that shouldn't have been funded have been funded.”
Corkadillo: Apple is foolish to build custom chips instead of using NVIDIA
“Apple tries to create their own, they're idiots. They should be working with NVIDIA at the highest levels to figure it out.”
Stafford: AI Will Eliminate Accountants and Much of the Medical Field
“I believe there will be certain industries that go away that we just won't need like accountants you know, probably even a lot of the medical field.”
Weisbrot: Asian workers struggle to express themselves and defer to Americans
“And I found that Asians are really bad at expressing themselves because they're afraid of being rejected. It's just, you know, plus they also defer to Americans.”
Miller: SEC used extreme, unethical enforcement tactics mirroring the show 'Billions'
“If you've seen that show billions, that, that New York AG in there, like they, there were some points of really extreme things that the SEC did that I'm not going to disclose. That is very similar to how they operate in billions. And it's quite unethical, but …”
Goleshuk: Humans will not need to write code within four years
“Now in, let's say in three, four years, there won't be a need for somebody to write the code. You're just gonna be with one line describing what you're looking for.”
Lundin predicts AI could eventually replace human salespeople entirely
“I think that it's possible at some point in the future that AI could completely replace salespeople, and it's an unpopular opinion.”
Verboven: Shift to AI Once It Beats Average Human Judgment
“Well, once AI is better than an average human judgment, we should stop using the humans and use AI systems.”
Reyes: Meta's 7B parameter Llama 2 model achieves GPT-4 level behavior
“Facebook open-sourced their model this JAMA that is a competitor to chat GPT, and with seven billion parameters, it reaches very similar behavior than GPT-IV.”
Weisbrot: Zuckerberg Falls Out With Acquired Founders And Destroys Their Companies
“So every company he's purchased, the founders and him have a falling out afterwards. He pays well, but then he basically destroys your company from the inside out.”
Szamosszegi: Proof of Work is the best market incentive to fix methane
“Proof of work is the strongest capitalist incentive that we have in the economy to fix the methane problem.”
Weisbrot: TikTok promotes divisive content outside China while curating positivity domestically
“It's been made clear that they have two algorithms, one for inside of China and one for outside of China. The one inside of China promotes social harmony, positive things, because the Chinese government wants people to see positive imagery and things that prom…”
Rosenstein: Every future video game will feature a play-to-earn economy
“There's gonna be this play-to-earn economy, in my opinion, that's gonna be created, and I don't think that, that, that people in the future will ever be playing video games to just, for free, essentially. I think that every game will have an economy in whateve…”
Bimani: General population in Tanzania expects handouts over hard work
“One thing I noticed in Tanzania was that they expect people to hand them money because they're poor, and they really don't want to work too hard to get ahead, as far as the general population goes.”
Arata: False misconduct accusations are primarily a fear, not a reality
“And your question was like, if somebody was falsely accused, right? I have yet to see one of those. That is more of a fear.”
Naylor: Shark Tank producers leak pitch details to the Sharks
“There was a lot of comments and statements and questions that they shouldn't have known. Unless it was a hundred percent leaked to them through this confidence, you know, relationship you had with the junior producer.”
Garcia-Cotte: Western brands severely distrust Chinese startups for anti-counterfeiting solutions
“Like, obviously, a Chinese team would have a hard time convincing Western brands that they are trustworthy for anti-counterfeiting. It's sad to say, but it's the reality.”
Zhang: Many Bay Area software engineers are 'very spoiled'
“And quite frankly speaking, a lot of engineers in the Bay Area are very, in my opinion, spoiled.”
Siddar: Trump Likely to Claim Premature Election Night Victory
“It's likely that Trump may announce a victory the night of the elections, looking at the existing vote count, and that may trigger some sort of unrest in certain cities that are already, you know, mobilized with BLM movement,”
Siddar: Chinese infrastructure firms trade poor construction for African mining concessions
“Chinese infrastructure companies in Africa are very aggressive. They are getting these mining concessions. They say, look, we don't want to charge you. Just give us the mining concession in that gold mine. And we will build your bridges, roads, highways, airpo…”
Gupta: Analytics roles will shrink as data jobs shift to engineering
“A lot of jobs should shift towards the left hand side with the engineering side. The analytical side should become thinner.”
Snyder: Founders Wrongly Blame Early Teams for Failing to Scale
“A lot of the times you'll have founders who say, oh, like my original team can't scale with me, which, you know, sometimes that's correct, but a lot of times it's just a misdiagnosis. Like when growth starts to break things on the human side, founders tend to …”
Mercer: Corporations Are the Biggest Recipients of Welfare
“You know, you and I both know that corporations are the biggest recipients of welfare, and all my corporate leaders know that, and they might try to, you know, we may argue with it, but we know it's true.”
Indries: AI will completely replace human accountants within 20 years
“Don't tell me that there'll be accountants 20 years from now. Why would you have an accountant when it's just math?”
Weisbrot: The leaders of the world's biggest companies have psychopathic tendencies
“The people that run the biggest companies in the world are, have psychopathic tendencies.”
McGregor: We were first in the world to use SMS for GSM delivery
“And we were the first company in the world to use SMS for delivery to mobile phones and GSM.”
Weisbrot: WhatsApp is not truly end-to-end encrypted
“They call themselves end to end encrypted, but the reality is if you have the private key, if you have the encryption key inside WhatsApp server, What's the point of calling it end-to-end encrypted? Because you need to send the message from your phone to them,…”
Weisbrot: Pavel Durov was arrested in France over Telegram encryption
“That's why one of the reasons why Pavel Durov, the founder of Telegram, was arrested in France, because they didn't like that it was encrypted.”
McGregor: Company holds rare KIC cryptographic access to all secondary mobile devices
“We are we're one of the few, or maybe the only company in the world to have KIC access to every secondary iOS and Android device in the world.”
May: OpenAI and Anthropic will be pushed to raise inference prices
“I think it's going to get worse before it gets better, because my guess is as open AI and anthropic IPO, wall street's going to scrutinize their unit economics. And it's probably going to ask them to raise prices, push them to raise prices on inference.”
Levin: U.S. immigration and tariff barriers will benefit overseas startups
“To the extent that immigration policies are changing, tariff policies, a lot of things that are kind of becoming barriers for innovation in the U.S., in my opinion, are going to help overseas startups as well”
Fred Wilson Used AI on Seed Deal After $50K Legal Quote
“The lawyers quoted him 50,000 dollars, and he was like, I think you should do it for less than five, and when they said no, he took his entire history of his closing binders, uploaded them into his, ah, you know, AI knowledge base, and had the AI essentially f…”
Wong: Anthropic, Google, and Microsoft will clone OpenClaw in ten months
“My prediction is this within n number of months, less than 10 Entropic, now, now Open Claw become part of OpenAI, so that becomes the OpenAI part of this game. Entropic, Google, Microsoft, Everybody will have their equivalent of open, open call framework.”
Wong: Future startups will sell AI agent teams instead of SaaS
“We're not building, I mean, the analogy I'm using is you're not going to build an accounting software that people sign up for. You're going to build an accounting team that people hire. The AI team is the, is what people will hire in the future.”