The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 23 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 23 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Indries: AI will autonomously negotiate contracts and resolve lawsuits within 20 years
“You'll have, you know, AI just building the most amazing contract And the AI negotiating with other AI, you know, making compromises on each side, you know, just so that they can, you know, reach settlement or whatever. Right. When you will sue someone, 20 yea…”
Indries: AI will completely replace human accountants within 20 years
“Don't tell me that there'll be accountants 20 years from now. Why would you have an accountant when it's just math?”
Hepworth: Bitcoin will surpass $200,000 during the current market cycle
“Even though I think we're going to go up to 200 K plus the cycle, you could exit right now and you've still done a five X, but people don't do that.”
Joe Rare: US transition to CBDC will wipe out dollar wealth
“If they flip the US dollar into a, you know, a CBDC, right? That you're not going to get dollar for dollar exchange. They're not going to do it there. You're going to go, okay, well you have a million dollars and okay, great. We'll give you 500,000 dollars in …”
Niedel: MIT45 will be one of the first publicly traded kratom companies
“I mean, our vision right now is certainly to be one of the first public, if not the first publicly traded Kratom company in the world. And our revenue is supporting that. Our growth is supporting that. There'll be some uniqueness to figure out what exchange to…”
Weisbrot: Humans have maybe 200 years left before Earth becomes unlivable
“I think we've got 200 years left, maybe, before the Earth is unlivable for humans, and once all the humans are gone, the planet will rebound, the animals will come back, everything will be fine, and a new species will take over.”
Indries: Indistinguishable digital AI avatars are one to two years away
“Give it maybe one to two years and digitally, I will be able to create a digital avatar of myself that looks exactly like me, sounds exactly like me. You will not be able to tell.”
McGregor: 6G architecture will instantly identify all callers, ending network anonymity
“So the six G architecture, we working with NVIDIA and a lot of these Ericsson, Google show that all calling is known at the instance of calling.”
McGregor: AI infrastructure management will accelerate 6G rollout to three years
“You know, I think that six G is going to happen quickly because a lot of the foundational things is going to be run by AI. Meaning that a lot of the more of the basic setups and all that kind of stuff, the infrastructure stuff will be all AI, so we'll have eff…”
Corkadillo: Smart contact lens mass adoption is 40 to 50 years away
“I don't think contacts are what we're going to see in our lifetime. I think that's a 40, 50 year adoption.”
Weisbrot: Governments will not implement wide-scale lockdowns again
“I don't believe we'll have that kind of a situation again.”
Reyes: People in their thirties today will live to 110 years old
“In our lifetime, considering that lifespan expands five percent more or less per every decade, we're going to live about a 105, a 110 years. We're going to live this kind of future, for sure.”
The FDA will not approve psychedelic medicines without accompanying talk therapy
“I don't see the FDA, by the way, Sean, a hundred percent. I don't see the FDA approving any of this that isn't in combination with some form of talk therapy.”
Dragan: Holographic communication will not exist within the next 50 years
“I would say we're not gonna have holograms within the next 50 years.”
Dragan: Direct brain-stimulated AR holograms will arrive within 10 years
“We're probably gonna have something in terms of augmented reality that would be probably directly brain-stimulated. So, instead of having holograms the way we're imagining them, Right now, like, you have a device in front of you, and Princess Leia appears, and…”
Weisbrot: Central bank digital currencies will replace paper fiat currencies
“You're also hearing governments and federal reserves around the world talking about central bank digital currencies, which is basically like a Bitcoin that is created by the government and will replace Paper currencies, which we call fiat currencies.”
Tesla pushes factory software code to all global Gigafactories simultaneously
“For example, in, in a Tesla factory, when you push code to a machine, you don't push code to one machine. You push code to all the machines from the California Gigafactory, but also the Shanghai Gigafactory, but also the German Gigafactory, but also the Texan …”
Foster: Thousands of startups will be built to replace customer support agents
“Thousands of companies are probably going to like get established using AI to try to replace customer support agents, right?”
Rosenstein: Bitcoin and Ethereum will adopt quantum-resistant cryptography within a decade
“Bitcoin and Ethereum. I'm betting on it as things that are here to stay, you know, that's not investment advice, but you know, these blockchains are going to get to be quantum resistant. There might have to be some changes in the next decade of the algorithms …”
Rocha: Quantum computing could break current encryption within a decade
“Probably a decade or less.”