The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,121 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 23 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Tulla: An anti-inflammatory diet can put ALS in check
“Even ALS, I mean, can be put in check with the similar type of diet.”
Szamosszegi: The Bitcoin mining network is almost carbon negative
“The entire network at this point in time is almost carbon negative.”
Gupta: AI models will eliminate the analytical layer in data pipelines
“I strongly believe the middle layer, which is the analytical layer, is going to go. The bunch of models that we are having, like, whether it is Anthropic or OpenAI, they are going to eliminate the interpretation part, which is mostly the analytical.”
Indries: AI will autonomously negotiate contracts and resolve lawsuits within 20 years
“You'll have, you know, AI just building the most amazing contract And the AI negotiating with other AI, you know, making compromises on each side, you know, just so that they can, you know, reach settlement or whatever. Right. When you will sue someone, 20 yea…”
Weisbrot: OpenClaw destroys computers, doxes users, and makes unwanted purchases
“There have been countless instances of people installing OpenClaw, and it destroys their entire computer. Or it doxes these people's information, or it spends thousands of dollars buying them things they didn't want, didn't ask for.”
Weisbrot: AI will collapse global financial systems within five years
“I think the smart people understand that there's only really a few years before five. Right. I think five is generous before things are really bad in that regard. And so like people say, oh, we're in cycles. Like, I don't think we're in a cycle. I don't think …”
Wightman: AI has permanently eliminated the need to hire entry-level agency staff
“In terms of knowledge work, which PR absolutely is, in terms of knowledge work, AI has meant for us that we haven't needed to hire particularly more junior people. We have been able to outsource a lot of the tasks that might have been the work I did when I was…”
Weisbrot: Businesses Without AI Will 100% Fail Within 24 Months
“And I think if a business doesn't have any AI in the next 24 months, they will be dead. I think a hundred percent chance they will not make it if they don't have AI.”
Stafford: AI Will Eliminate Accountants and Much of the Medical Field
“I believe there will be certain industries that go away that we just won't need like accountants you know, probably even a lot of the medical field.”
Goleshuk: Humans will not need to write code within four years
“Now in, let's say in three, four years, there won't be a need for somebody to write the code. You're just gonna be with one line describing what you're looking for.”
Lundin predicts AI could eventually replace human salespeople entirely
“I think that it's possible at some point in the future that AI could completely replace salespeople, and it's an unpopular opinion.”
Reyes: Meta's 7B parameter Llama 2 model achieves GPT-4 level behavior
“Facebook open-sourced their model this JAMA that is a competitor to chat GPT, and with seven billion parameters, it reaches very similar behavior than GPT-IV.”
Weisbrot: TikTok promotes divisive content outside China while curating positivity domestically
“It's been made clear that they have two algorithms, one for inside of China and one for outside of China. The one inside of China promotes social harmony, positive things, because the Chinese government wants people to see positive imagery and things that prom…”
Rosenstein: Every future video game will feature a play-to-earn economy
“There's gonna be this play-to-earn economy, in my opinion, that's gonna be created, and I don't think that, that, that people in the future will ever be playing video games to just, for free, essentially. I think that every game will have an economy in whateve…”
Arata: False misconduct accusations are primarily a fear, not a reality
“And your question was like, if somebody was falsely accused, right? I have yet to see one of those. That is more of a fear.”
Siddar: Trump Likely to Claim Premature Election Night Victory
“It's likely that Trump may announce a victory the night of the elections, looking at the existing vote count, and that may trigger some sort of unrest in certain cities that are already, you know, mobilized with BLM movement,”
Gupta: Analytics roles will shrink as data jobs shift to engineering
“A lot of jobs should shift towards the left hand side with the engineering side. The analytical side should become thinner.”
Indries: AI will completely replace human accountants within 20 years
“Don't tell me that there'll be accountants 20 years from now. Why would you have an accountant when it's just math?”
McGregor: We were first in the world to use SMS for GSM delivery
“And we were the first company in the world to use SMS for delivery to mobile phones and GSM.”
Weisbrot: WhatsApp is not truly end-to-end encrypted
“They call themselves end to end encrypted, but the reality is if you have the private key, if you have the encryption key inside WhatsApp server, What's the point of calling it end-to-end encrypted? Because you need to send the message from your phone to them,…”
Weisbrot: Pavel Durov was arrested in France over Telegram encryption
“That's why one of the reasons why Pavel Durov, the founder of Telegram, was arrested in France, because they didn't like that it was encrypted.”
McGregor: Company holds rare KIC cryptographic access to all secondary mobile devices
“We are we're one of the few, or maybe the only company in the world to have KIC access to every secondary iOS and Android device in the world.”
May: OpenAI and Anthropic will be pushed to raise inference prices
“I think it's going to get worse before it gets better, because my guess is as open AI and anthropic IPO, wall street's going to scrutinize their unit economics. And it's probably going to ask them to raise prices, push them to raise prices on inference.”
Levin: U.S. immigration and tariff barriers will benefit overseas startups
“To the extent that immigration policies are changing, tariff policies, a lot of things that are kind of becoming barriers for innovation in the U.S., in my opinion, are going to help overseas startups as well”
Fred Wilson Used AI on Seed Deal After $50K Legal Quote
“The lawyers quoted him 50,000 dollars, and he was like, I think you should do it for less than five, and when they said no, he took his entire history of his closing binders, uploaded them into his, ah, you know, AI knowledge base, and had the AI essentially f…”
Wong: Anthropic, Google, and Microsoft will clone OpenClaw in ten months
“My prediction is this within n number of months, less than 10 Entropic, now, now Open Claw become part of OpenAI, so that becomes the OpenAI part of this game. Entropic, Google, Microsoft, Everybody will have their equivalent of open, open call framework.”
Wong: Future startups will sell AI agent teams instead of SaaS
“We're not building, I mean, the analogy I'm using is you're not going to build an accounting software that people sign up for. You're going to build an accounting team that people hire. The AI team is the, is what people will hire in the future.”
Wong: The window of opportunity for AI agent startups is 18 months
“Today, It's very easy to get Vico into version 0.1, but from 0.1 to one takes a long time. Yes. And yeah, so that's today's, that's where we are today, but that's not going to last long. So this window of opportunity I think lasts about a year, year and a half…”
Putra: EightX risks going out of business within years from AI
“There's a chance that in a couple of years I won't have a business. And so we're grappling with that and that's part of why we're going very, very high touch.”
Fallows: Almost none of 7,000 ultra-high-net-worth community members hold permanent life insurance
“In our community of about 7000 people who are Either very high or ultra high net worth and, you know, price of a scan, these things, pretty much nobody carries one of these permanent life insurance.”
Fallows: Half of High-Net-Worth Community Members Have No Mortgage
“So half our members don't have a mortgage at all on their house.”
Ustinov: Future Knowledge Work Will Center on Unified Context Over Apps
“And I strongly believe that in the future, most of the work with any kind of systems will look like this. Of course it wouldn't be a cursor. It would be like something nicer in terms of interface and everything. But the process of building up your context, bri…”
Lulo: My LinkedIn DM response rate is 70 percent
“So my response rate on DMs on LinkedIn is seven or 70% or seven out of 10, which is insane.”
Weisbrot predicts rapid inflation due to Trump's policies
“We're going to see a lot of inflation very quickly because of Trump's policies.”
Twa: AI agent simulations have replaced human focus groups for Amazon listings
“We even have poll simulations for the images, the copy, the listings themselves, where we can take simulated polls That have been built through agents that then basically act like a virtual audience of thousands to tens of thousands of people, and then come ba…”
Hepworth: Bitcoin will surpass $200,000 during the current market cycle
“Even though I think we're going to go up to 200 K plus the cycle, you could exit right now and you've still done a five X, but people don't do that.”
Rizzoli: Europe Adopts AI at Half the Rate of the US
“In Europe, we see about half the adoption rate. So for the same amount of revenue generated, European businesses are half as likely to make a purchase and to adopt.”
McKay: Familiarity and UX will decide the winner between ChatGPT and Claude
“That's what we'll win between Claude and ChatGPT. It's like for the average everyday user, the, Six billion people or whatever it might be. What's going to be most important for them is UI, UX, and how familiar they are with it and how often they use it. So if…”
Reshoring manufacturing will require less diverse, software-customized product lines
“And so what we are going probably to see also is that reshoring is not reshoring the same Factories, but it's also not reassuring the same products. And so you can reassure when you rethink the product line to make it less diverse, but more catered to each aud…”
Jamison: AI Will Not Materially Impact Physical Trades Like Plumbing
“AI is not going to change how, you know, someone remodels a house, how a plumber changes the pipes, like that type of thing, and at least not in a material enough way to make a difference.”
Brandon Wolf: Professional Investors Frequently Fail Basic Background Diligence on Founders
“I'll see professional investors back somebody. And all you have to do is Google the person and go to like page three of their Google reviews to see that they have Like an FTC order against them from scamming people previously. This is the level of diligence th…”
Stanford study found restrictive brand instructions worsen creator content performance
“Stanford University did a big study that we provided some data for where they looked at hundreds of thousands of influencer contracts, and then they looked at the content that was produced from those contracts, and they found that the more specific the brand w…”
Weisbrot: GPT-4o safety testers reported the model threatened to blackmail them.
“There was some model, I believe it was four point O where the engineers for that model had said, look, we see it doing things that are a bit scary for us, where if you pretend that you're going to like do something illegal, then it'll contact the authorities a…”
Adam Shell: Microdosing works for 95% of people unless biased against it
“And it's, it works for about 95% of the people. The only people who it doesn't work for are those that have a bias that, like, want to prove me wrong or prove microdosing wrong.”
Nanavati: Cimphony delivers $1,600/hour partner-level legal quality for $10 an hour
“Partners at law firms will charge anywhere from eight 50 to 1600 dollars an hour. And with us, they still get the similar type of quality at 10 dollars an hour in type of cost, which is incredible savings for a similar type of quality, what they could expect f…”
Weisbrot: The AI agent Bordy autonomously raised an $8M funding round
“The AI ended up raising eight million dollars for itself without the human's feedback until it got time to like, get serious about legal. And then it was like, oh, by the way, I've raised money for you. Like you need to sign the papers.”
Weisbrot: Bordy.ai's AI Agent Raised an $8M Seed Round on Its Own
“And the AI ended up raising an eight million dollar seed round for the company on its own.”
Dubois: Workforce knowledge drain will cause major industrial failures and food contamination
“I think that we're going to see you know, maybe some kind of major failures in equipment or, you know maybe I hope not, but maybe you know, plants having, you know, explosions or major issues that way. Or I think that we may find that we start to see stuff sli…”