The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 268 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 22 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Gupta: AI models will eliminate the analytical layer in data pipelines
“I strongly believe the middle layer, which is the analytical layer, is going to go. The bunch of models that we are having, like, whether it is Anthropic or OpenAI, they are going to eliminate the interpretation part, which is mostly the analytical.”
Indries: AI will autonomously negotiate contracts and resolve lawsuits within 20 years
“You'll have, you know, AI just building the most amazing contract And the AI negotiating with other AI, you know, making compromises on each side, you know, just so that they can, you know, reach settlement or whatever. Right. When you will sue someone, 20 yea…”
Weisbrot: AI will collapse global financial systems within five years
“I think the smart people understand that there's only really a few years before five. Right. I think five is generous before things are really bad in that regard. And so like people say, oh, we're in cycles. Like, I don't think we're in a cycle. I don't think …”
Wightman: AI has permanently eliminated the need to hire entry-level agency staff
“In terms of knowledge work, which PR absolutely is, in terms of knowledge work, AI has meant for us that we haven't needed to hire particularly more junior people. We have been able to outsource a lot of the tasks that might have been the work I did when I was…”
Weisbrot: Businesses Without AI Will 100% Fail Within 24 Months
“And I think if a business doesn't have any AI in the next 24 months, they will be dead. I think a hundred percent chance they will not make it if they don't have AI.”
Stafford: AI Will Eliminate Accountants and Much of the Medical Field
“I believe there will be certain industries that go away that we just won't need like accountants you know, probably even a lot of the medical field.”
Goleshuk: Humans will not need to write code within four years
“Now in, let's say in three, four years, there won't be a need for somebody to write the code. You're just gonna be with one line describing what you're looking for.”
Lundin predicts AI could eventually replace human salespeople entirely
“I think that it's possible at some point in the future that AI could completely replace salespeople, and it's an unpopular opinion.”
Rosenstein: Every future video game will feature a play-to-earn economy
“There's gonna be this play-to-earn economy, in my opinion, that's gonna be created, and I don't think that, that, that people in the future will ever be playing video games to just, for free, essentially. I think that every game will have an economy in whateve…”
Siddar: Trump Likely to Claim Premature Election Night Victory
“It's likely that Trump may announce a victory the night of the elections, looking at the existing vote count, and that may trigger some sort of unrest in certain cities that are already, you know, mobilized with BLM movement,”
Gupta: Analytics roles will shrink as data jobs shift to engineering
“A lot of jobs should shift towards the left hand side with the engineering side. The analytical side should become thinner.”
Indries: AI will completely replace human accountants within 20 years
“Don't tell me that there'll be accountants 20 years from now. Why would you have an accountant when it's just math?”
May: OpenAI and Anthropic will be pushed to raise inference prices
“I think it's going to get worse before it gets better, because my guess is as open AI and anthropic IPO, wall street's going to scrutinize their unit economics. And it's probably going to ask them to raise prices, push them to raise prices on inference.”
Levin: U.S. immigration and tariff barriers will benefit overseas startups
“To the extent that immigration policies are changing, tariff policies, a lot of things that are kind of becoming barriers for innovation in the U.S., in my opinion, are going to help overseas startups as well”
Wong: Anthropic, Google, and Microsoft will clone OpenClaw in ten months
“My prediction is this within n number of months, less than 10 Entropic, now, now Open Claw become part of OpenAI, so that becomes the OpenAI part of this game. Entropic, Google, Microsoft, Everybody will have their equivalent of open, open call framework.”
Wong: Future startups will sell AI agent teams instead of SaaS
“We're not building, I mean, the analogy I'm using is you're not going to build an accounting software that people sign up for. You're going to build an accounting team that people hire. The AI team is the, is what people will hire in the future.”
Wong: The window of opportunity for AI agent startups is 18 months
“Today, It's very easy to get Vico into version 0.1, but from 0.1 to one takes a long time. Yes. And yeah, so that's today's, that's where we are today, but that's not going to last long. So this window of opportunity I think lasts about a year, year and a half…”
Putra: EightX risks going out of business within years from AI
“There's a chance that in a couple of years I won't have a business. And so we're grappling with that and that's part of why we're going very, very high touch.”
Ustinov: Future Knowledge Work Will Center on Unified Context Over Apps
“And I strongly believe that in the future, most of the work with any kind of systems will look like this. Of course it wouldn't be a cursor. It would be like something nicer in terms of interface and everything. But the process of building up your context, bri…”
Weisbrot predicts rapid inflation due to Trump's policies
“We're going to see a lot of inflation very quickly because of Trump's policies.”
Hepworth: Bitcoin will surpass $200,000 during the current market cycle
“Even though I think we're going to go up to 200 K plus the cycle, you could exit right now and you've still done a five X, but people don't do that.”
McKay: Familiarity and UX will decide the winner between ChatGPT and Claude
“That's what we'll win between Claude and ChatGPT. It's like for the average everyday user, the, Six billion people or whatever it might be. What's going to be most important for them is UI, UX, and how familiar they are with it and how often they use it. So if…”
Reshoring manufacturing will require less diverse, software-customized product lines
“And so what we are going probably to see also is that reshoring is not reshoring the same Factories, but it's also not reassuring the same products. And so you can reassure when you rethink the product line to make it less diverse, but more catered to each aud…”
Jamison: AI Will Not Materially Impact Physical Trades Like Plumbing
“AI is not going to change how, you know, someone remodels a house, how a plumber changes the pipes, like that type of thing, and at least not in a material enough way to make a difference.”
Dubois: Workforce knowledge drain will cause major industrial failures and food contamination
“I think that we're going to see you know, maybe some kind of major failures in equipment or, you know maybe I hope not, but maybe you know, plants having, you know, explosions or major issues that way. Or I think that we may find that we start to see stuff sli…”
Joe Rare: US transition to CBDC will wipe out dollar wealth
“If they flip the US dollar into a, you know, a CBDC, right? That you're not going to get dollar for dollar exchange. They're not going to do it there. You're going to go, okay, well you have a million dollars and okay, great. We'll give you 500,000 dollars in …”
Sparrow: B2B tech providers lacking natural language AI face obsolescence by 2024
“And my view is anyone who does not have that kind of interface a year from now is going to be uncompetitive. And that's especially true for any technology and service provider. But you're going to be seeing more and more of it inside of, you know, corporate wa…”
Weisbrot: Refusing brain implants will cause job loss for next generation
“I feel like the next generation will be like, oh, if you don't want to get an implant in your brain, then you're going to lose your job. And you may lose out on economic opportunities because you're not willing to take that step.”
Reyes: Next major war will be fully automated and AI-powered
“I think the next big war is going to be fully automated. Like the problem is that it's going to be fully automated, but it's still including humans. So then we'll just have a massive chop, chop, chop of people. And it's gonna be, like, drones and chips and, li…”
Reyes: Universal ChatGPT usage will eventually eliminate original human thought
“That there cannot be any more original thoughts because all thoughts are optimized to follow the Gaussian distribution because we are all using ChatGPT. So then like it's, we're just Sampling from the same distribution and there's no more creative people anymo…”
Reyes: An AI-centered religion will eventually emerge for humanity
“We're gonna have to have some kind of a spiritual revolution towards how to live with AI. Like I'm sure there's gonna be some AI religion at some point.”
Foster: AI will shrink product teams but make top talent highly valuable
“And I think the same kind of thing is going to happen when it comes to product as well, which is there's going to be a need for fewer product people, but the very best are going to be worth their weight in platinum.”
Weisbrot: India will not replicate China's centralized manufacturing scale
“There's no way India will become a China because China, despite what's happening right now with COVID making it look like it's not organized. It's a very organized country and Xi Jinping has done a really good job of getting rid of corruption. And You know, th…”
Niedel: MIT45 will be one of the first publicly traded kratom companies
“I mean, our vision right now is certainly to be one of the first public, if not the first publicly traded Kratom company in the world. And our revenue is supporting that. Our growth is supporting that. There'll be some uniqueness to figure out what exchange to…”
Weisbrot: NFTs could replace smart contracts and STOs
“I think NFTs actually could replace smart contracts and STOs or security tokens.”
Weisbrot predicts individuals must own AI by 2040 to avoid economic subordination.
“You know, there's a good chance that by 2040, if you don't own your own AI, you will be owned by an AI that Google, Facebook, Apple, or Facebook, you know, one of these companies own. Like you basically have 20 years to make your money or you're going to becom…”
Weisbrot: Humans have maybe 200 years left before Earth becomes unlivable
“I think we've got 200 years left, maybe, before the Earth is unlivable for humans, and once all the humans are gone, the planet will rebound, the animals will come back, everything will be fine, and a new species will take over.”
Parrish: AI building its own application builders is over 20 years away
“Even though we can use voice to no code, we won't be able to use AI to just build the application builder itself likely by that point, just because there's a lot of server management logic and stuff like that, that needs to happen on the backend for that suppo…”
Dragan: Technology will shift to carbon-based molecular biology within a decade
“And I think a lot of the ways that we're thinking about the world right now in terms of technology is going to shift in the next 10 years or so through molecular biology. So it's going to be less silicon based technology and more carbon based technologies. We'…”
Weisbrot: Bitcoin's Creator Would Probably Be Executed if Identified
“If their identity is discovered, they will probably be executed. For upending the financial system.”
Gupta: Enterprises will consolidate fragmented data stacks into unified platforms
“So I think the first round of disruption and transformation that is going to happen is enterprises are going to look for Platforms and tools and products which can give end-to-end capability. They don't need to go too deep, but it should be one.”
Weisbrot: AI Will Soon Build Trust Better Because It Is Non-Judgmental
“Maybe today, but I think very, very soon that's not going to be true, because AI is very good at making humans feel comfortable, and humans feel like AI isn't judging it because it's not another human. So I feel like AI will be capable of doing that if it's no…”
Weisbrot: Workers Not Using AI Will Lose Jobs Within Years
“And I legitimately think they're all going to lose their jobs in the next few years.”
Indries: Indistinguishable digital AI avatars are one to two years away
“Give it maybe one to two years and digitally, I will be able to create a digital avatar of myself that looks exactly like me, sounds exactly like me. You will not be able to tell.”
Weisbrot: Neuralink Success Could Create a Zerg-Like Hive Mind
“I would say the Zerg would happen if Neuralink wins.”
Indries: People in Their Thirties Might Live for Hundreds of Years
“You and I might not die because we're like in our thirties. So we will evolve enough, you know, so that you can live to be a few hundred years old. And then if you live to be a few hundred years old, we might invent something, you know, that makes you basicall…”
McGregor: 6G architecture will instantly identify all callers, ending network anonymity
“So the six G architecture, we working with NVIDIA and a lot of these Ericsson, Google show that all calling is known at the instance of calling.”
McGregor: AI infrastructure management will accelerate 6G rollout to three years
“You know, I think that six G is going to happen quickly because a lot of the foundational things is going to be run by AI. Meaning that a lot of the more of the basic setups and all that kind of stuff, the infrastructure stuff will be all AI, so we'll have eff…”