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Venture capital, startups and investing, on tape.

Every prediction, opinion and bold claim from Top Founders: extracted from the transcript, verified against the tape, checked against cited public sources, playable at the exact moment it was said.

31,030 statements on the ledger →
3,128assessments with sources → 2,595episodes (so far) →

15,480 assertions9,656 disclosures3,289 insights1,321 predictions1,177 opinions107 what-ifs

predictions → 73 held up 111 didn’t hold up 21 partly held up
assertions → 1,971 supported 376 contradicted 576 partly supported
Changed Positions Same person, opposite position. Both tapes, side by side. 1 on record Star Treatment Does prominence change the questions? Every guest, plotted. prominence vs. host pushback Supercuts Didn’t hold up · Held up · Said with certainty exact-quote reels The Argument Index Debate potential by speaker, and the companies with the most bearish calls. debate potential, ranked The Numbers Museum Every figure ever claimed, checked where possible. 11,526 figures Entities Every company, fund and idea the show has opinions about, sources attached. 25,148 on the record The Calls Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. 13 open The Pulse What the Valley talks about, year by year, since 2016. who said it first The Wisdom Wall The lessons worth keeping. No fortune cookies. 3,289 insights The Graph 11 years of people, companies and ideas as one map. explore connections Straight Answers Who answers the question asked, measured. Every moment timestamped and playable. 0 questions not answered directly Speaking Style Measured from raw, unedited recordings only. 0 speakers scored

Recently on the ledger full ledger →

Disclosure
Mobilewalla monitored swing state polling locations in real-time for campaign teams
“What we did for this particular party, who spent way less on, feet on the street than the other party, we were monitoring every polling booth, every polling location in a certain number of states, And we were telling the ground team who showed up to vote and w…”
Anindya Datta Aug 29, 2017 ▶ 24:26 766: This Company Used Evangelical Christian Mobile Data to Influence US Elections
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gamito: Nathan Barry fired him two weeks before ConvertKit equity vested
“I think my equity was supposed to vest and that director position was supposed to vest the next month, like two weeks after that. So it was a very strategic move on his part.”
Dan Gamito Jun 23, 2017 ▶ 15:16 699: The Fired ConvertKit Co-Founder You've Never Heard Of, Father Made Me Feel "Not Worth Enough"
Opinion
Harris: The Venture Capital Model Is Effectively a Ponzi Scheme
“Because that VC model is, if you were, if you're being a little bit mean about it, you'd call it a Ponzi scheme. Because people have to lose.”
Bridget Harris Sep 19, 2022 ▶ 4:07 How Bootstrapped YouCanBookMe Hit $5m using team profit sharing as internal motivation
Opinion
Zach Resnick believes Craig Wright is very likely Satoshi Nakamoto
“Most of our thesis and our focus on the reason we're really long BSV and not other blockchains comes from the technology of Bitcoin and is, doesn't have to do with Craig Wright, but yes, you are correct in that I do think that Craig Wright is very likely to be…”
Zach Resnick Mar 4, 2021 ▶ 3:06 Is This The Creator of Bitcoin? Crypto Fund Thinks So.
Disclosure
Chernis: Most Lately staff went unpaid for two years during cash crunch
“And so, but that also means most of my staff didn't get paid for the last two years.”
Kate Chernis Dec 29, 2020 ▶ 8:34 How Lately Hit $900k For Social Media Automation Tool Using AI, $7m valuation
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Pysh: Bitcoin will probably peak between $200,000 and $300,000
“It's going to go straight through that number. It's probably going to go to two to 300,000.”
Preston Pysh Apr 22, 2020 ▶ 1:06:42 Preston Pysh on Bitcoin $200,000, QE at the top, UBI at bottom, $10t+ Fed Balance Sheet?

How the calls resolved the full record →

Prediction Held up
Nathan Latka: The $349B PPP stimulus funds will run out quickly
“So the trick with this that, you know, Connor, that I'm trying to share with people is I think the money will run out. Right. If you take three hundred fifty billion. Right. At a max of ten million per company, that's only 34,000 companies. Right. Even even if…”
Nathan Latka Apr 3, 2020 ▶ 10:23 1714 Do This Today: How Much You Get $349b PPP Stimulus for SaaS Founders
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Arison: Shift Will Launch Captive Lending by 2024 or 2025
“So eventually, you know, out in 20, 24, 25, we will do capital loans, but we just need to grow to be large enough before we can do that.”
George Arison Nov 26, 2020 ▶ 18:36 Shift Sells $200m Worth of Cars, Makes $30m, $225m Equity Raised, IPO Next?
Prediction Held up
Mark Zuckerberg Might Run for President in 2024
“No, but he might run in twenty-twenty-four.”
Derek Thompson Apr 11, 2017 ▶ 17:28 EP 626: Senior Editor at The Atlantic Releases Book To Predict Popularity In New Distraction Age with writer Derek Thompson
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Latka plans to take Send Later public by age 30
“I will build Send Later into a big business, and I will take it public by the time I turn 30.”
Nathan Latka Sep 8, 2016 ▶ 1:17 EP 411: She Made $1.1M 2015 Performance Arts Center, Now Coaching with Stacy Tuschl

Open predictions the full timeline →

213days Sakil: Industry-ready quantum computers are three to five years away Dirk Sakil · prediction date: 2027-04-14 344days Latka: Corwin will transition Austin AI into SaaS within five years Nathan Latka · prediction date: 2027-08-23 474days Kokakar: 50.9% of Americans will probably freelance by 2027 Sagar Kokakar · prediction date: 2027-12-31 716days Winkler predicts all oil geosteering will be automated within five years Hugh Winkler · prediction date: 2028-08-29

Track records all people →

Ordered by full support rate, then by supported count. Minimum three resolved. Partly supported claims count as resolved but not as fully supported, same as everywhere on the ledger.

PersonEpsStatementsSupportedPartly supportedContradictedFull support rate
Wade Foster 2 25 9 0 0 100%
Daniel Wickberg 2 26 8 0 0 100%
Rick Carlson 1 14 7 0 0 100%
Henry Schuck 3 42 6 0 0 100%
Joost de Valk 1 17 6 0 0 100%
David Rogier 1 13 6 0 0 100%
Gleb Budman 2 25 5 0 0 100%
Dave Hurwit 1 6 5 0 0 100%

From the Wisdom Wall all quotes →

“Don't try to compete with Walmart, Amazon, and Costco. That's, or if you're going to do that, you need to put Two billion dollars on the balance sheet and you need to make that like a 10 year journey.”

“don't do the move of like founders eat last. I also think that's old and antiquated. Like you have to understand your worth.”

“you can put together a prototype, like, uh, and you can vibe code your way to kind of a, you know, a simple scheduling app, uh, but you can't vibe code your way to, to something that has kind of deep…”
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