The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,321 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 45 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Pysh: Bitcoin will probably peak between $200,000 and $300,000
“It's going to go straight through that number. It's probably going to go to two to 300,000.”
Pompliano: Bitcoin will hit $100,000 by the end of 2021
“I think that from now where we're recording this in April of 2020, I think that by the end of 2021, we'll see Bitcoin hit a 100,000 dollar price point”
Malone: Tech will create a permanent underclass of zero-economic-value citizens
“We've got zero, we have what are called ZEVs coming, and those are zero economic value citizens. Which are people that even if you had a job opening, you would never hire them, because technology will do the job instead, and this is going to represent a sizabl…”
Kahlow: Buyers will soon trust AI sales agents over human reps
“I actually think we're about to cross the chasm where people trust AI more than humans because we have the ability to put the AI on really tight guardrails. And if you do this right, and once society actually moves to that point, they're going to demand to tal…”
Spiegel: Pure SaaS companies will see revenue drop to zero within years
“So, I mean, look, my general thought on this is SAS is dead. So if you're just SAS, your revenue is going to go to zero in the next couple of years.”
Romain Torres: Every single ad will be AI-generated in three years
“Every single ad will be AI generated in like three years. So if you don't start doing this right now, Basically you will get left behind.”
Zach Resnick predicts Bitcoin SV will see petabyte-sized blocks
“And I think we're going to see petabyte blocks over the coming years.”
Singh: Non-BTC/ETH Top 10 Cryptos Will Be Replaced Within Two Years
“So I personally, my belief is that everyone in the top 10 maybe bar ETH and Bitcoin will be switched out in the next 12 to 24 months.”
Jackson: User-owned networks will outgrow founder- and investor-owned networks
“My co-founder and I, Gabe, we firmly believe That user owned and controlled networks will grow faster and be more valuable than founder and investor owned networks.”
White: $1.5M raise will fund 22-month runway to reach $2M MRR
“That's kind of what it looks like we should need to take us for a 22 months and grow our revenues to what we think could be an average of about two million MRR.”
Jeff Booth: Technology Will Prevent Net Global Job Growth
“There's not going to be net global job gain globally. Right. Through, through what's happening with technology.”
Booth: Breaking Up US Big Tech Would Cede AI Superiority to China
“If Elizabeth Warren or anybody breaks up Amazon or Google or the giant AI companies, or Microsoft for that, that, that, that matter, effectively by doing that, you seed AI superiority to China.”
Booth: Bitcoin Will Eventually Become the Global Reserve Currency
“I'm a huge fan of Bitcoin, a huge fan of Bitcoin, because I think that it'll move to a reserve status that other currencies will be pegged to eventually.”
Booth: War or revolution is a logical consequence of current wealth disparity
“That's why war revolution is a logical consequence out of where we are right now, because people don't believe it's their fault. They, people don't, they're caught in a system. It's really easy to prey on, on people's vulnerabilities when they can't eat and cr…”
Pysh: decentralized crypto is most likely successor to global fiat
“The last is the highest probability outcome.”
Yanowitz: China emerges as the geopolitical winner from the COVID-19 pandemic
“China wins.
And that this was not like, this wasn't the case after nine, 11 in the financial crisis.
Like after both of those, the U S stepped up, right?
The U S like had everyone else's back, but this is
A, like we're just feeling it's very de-globalized bec…”
Yanowitz: November 2020 US presidential election could be delayed
“I do wonder if we will have an election in November. I'll say that. I don't know. I w I don't think it's crazy to think that we won't have, what happens is you delay, quote unquote, you delay the election in November.”
Pompliano: US Dollar Will Lose Global Reserve Status in His Lifetime
“And ultimately I think in my lifetime, the U S dollar is not going to be the global reserve currency.”
Benson: COVID-19 disruption is definitely not a two-year problem
“This is a, this is likely a shorter term bump. Is it a three month problem? Is it an eight month problem? I'm not sure, but it's certainly not a two week problem and it's certainly not a two year problem.”
Malone: Governments will mandate backdoors in all blockchain technology
“And we're going to build it into blockchain.
I don't know how with all those, all that security and everything else, but they're going to demand it.
Because if you don't control that information or have access to that information, you lose your national sovere…”
Malone: AI will obsolete programmers while original creative writers become extremely rich
“Yeah, if you're writing code, you know, you're about to become a newspaper man. But if you can write a really good play or movie script or novel. You're going to be a very rich person.”
Howard Marks predicted SaaS models would inevitably transform into ICOs
“You know, for them, the SaaS business is probably the only way a software model is going to work, but it's going to transform itself into the ICO model, which is the blockchain, because it's the logical progression, you know, internet, one point O internet, tw…”
Antonopoulos: Open money protocols will lift billions of people out of poverty
“The flow of money around the world will be detected, dictated by protocols and mathematical structures and the internet, and we will have free flow of money around the world. Now, the impact of that is that it's going to empower billions of people and pull the…”
Koppelman: Decentralized platforms will replace Uber, Airbnb, and eBay
“We assume that every platform that exists today, Uber, Airbnb, eBay, Will be replaced eventually by decentralized platforms and gnosis is a platform decentralized platform for prediction markets”
Kineshanko: Blockchain is how the world builds for the next decade
“This way of building stuff is going to be the way the world builds stuff for the next decade.”
Latka predicts he will run for US President and win in 2036
“I plan to run for president and win in 2036.”
Latka predicts he will run a $100B hedge fund
“I will run the world's largest hedge fund with a hundred billion dollars in assets under management.”
Holiday in 2016: Trump's campaign tactics will make him a horrible president
“What's made Donald Trump a great campaigner will ultimately make him a horrible president, and maybe even make it impossible for him to actually become president, because he is not actually aware of why what he's doing is working, right?”
Spivack: AI is nowhere near replacing programmers, editors, or writers
“I do not think that AI is anywhere near replacing programmers, which I think are creative people, or editors, or writers.”
Puri: Blab's audience will be larger than any cable TV network
“And so what we're going to do is we're going to gather the biggest audience we can. And I believe that that will end up being bigger than Any cable TV network out there.”
Harris in Jan 2016: Donald Trump's brazenness will be his downfall
“And I think that, that we're all going to see that at the end, Donald Trump's brazenness is going to be his downfall.”
Garg: Nimble SaaS incumbents will survive any DIY AI software apocalypse
“Many people have tried. Many people will try as they call it the SaaS apocalypse. It's gonna happen, happen in micro places, but most dentists just want to come in, do the work, see their patients, go back home. Will there be more noise? Yeah, there'll be more…”
Beckett: Almost all peak 2020-2021 venture investors will not do well
“Almost everybody who invested in 20, 20, 21 at the peak is not going to do well. That's just the reality.”
Romain Torres: AI will completely replace human ad copywriting and optimization
“One skill that until now was very important, but that is gonna be completely replaced by AI over time. Basically what will happen, I think, is You'll describe your product. AI will come up with a script for you that will use a platform like Arcades automatical…”
Bhattacharya: Involve.ai can reach $20M ARR without raising more capital
“We don't think we would need to raise another round, at least in the near future to keep growing. And we feel we can get to ten million, even twenty million in ARR very quickly without even raising extra capital.”
Martin: Remote work projected to reach 62% of US workforce by 2030
“So by 2027, it's projected to be 50% of the U.S. Workforce, and actually by 2030, we're projected to be at 62%, dependent upon the data set that you take a look at.”
Miller: Post-exit, Awareness Technologies' revenue will halve to $10M in 2022
“The business will do ten million in revenue this year.”
Latka: A founder will build a billion-dollar business with one FTE
“Someone's going to build a billion dollar business and have one FTE as the founder and then a network of contractors.”
Hartert: Jotform Aims for $150M ARR While Remaining Fully Bootstrapped
“Probably the first one. Yeah, I mean, that's really kind of been our mantra since day one. That's our CEO's whole, you know, methodology to it, and it's worked great for us.”
Burnside predicts LendingPoint will reach $120M in net profit in 2022
“We're making money. We'll, we'll make a hundred plus this year. A hundred million net. Yeah. A hundred, a 120.”
Latka predicts a SaaS company will soon IPO with under 10 employees
“Greg, I say one day, I think very soon there's going to be someone that takes a company public with less than 10 FTEs, a SaaS company.”
Urban: Wunderkind's SaaS and advertising divisions will each reach $1B revenue
“These are ultimately these are going to be both billion dollar revenue businesses.”
SecurityScorecard: Valuation will triple or quadruple within 18 to 24 months
“We believe that within the next. 18 to 24 months, again, we're going to triple or quadruple evaluation of a company or more.”
Assaraf: Salesforce, Confluent, and Snowflake will enter observability
“I actually mentioned that Salesforce, I think, will get in our space some way, somehow, and I think I'm fluent. We'll also step into the observability space. I think also Snowflake will get there because it's just that makes no sense for companies that control…”
Ultian: State licensing infrastructure market opportunity will close in eight months
“If we can get out there ahead of that change, if we can be the provider for the states themselves to be able to grant licenses, that puts us in a pretty unassailable position, and that opportunity will exist for the next six to eight months.”