Prediction Didn’t hold up
Pompliano: Bitcoin will hit $100,000 by the end of 2021
“I think that from now where we're recording this in April of 2020, I think that by the end of 2021, we'll see Bitcoin hit a 100,000 dollar price point”
Opinion
Pompliano: Corporations seek bailouts because the government is an idiot investor
“And so I think you know, Mark Cuban and I see eye to eye completely on this, which is the reason why corporations are running to the government is because they believe that the government's the idiot in the room.”
Insight
Pompliano: Wall Street capitalists become socialists during crises
“All the capitalists on wall street become socialist in times of crisis.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2068
Pompliano: US Dollar Will Lose Global Reserve Status in His Lifetime
“And ultimately I think in my lifetime, the U S dollar is not going to be the global reserve currency.”
Opinion
Pompliano: US shifts to wealth redistribution while China focuses on wealth creation
“Now we're getting more from a capitalist society, switching more to socialist. We're doing more wealth redistribution than wealth creation. And what you're seeing is a lot of wealth creation and not a lot of wealth redistribution happening in China and other c…”
Insight
Pompliano: Stock-to-flow models are more accurate for Bitcoin than gold
“What you see is a lot of these stock to flow models and co-integration models, et cetera, that are used in gold. Apply to Bitcoin and are actually more accurate in Bitcoin because one side of the equation is transparently known with 100% certainty and all you …”
Opinion
Pompliano: Government over-rotation on health crisis caused economic crisis
“I think what's happening is an over rotation on the health crisis, which causes the economic crisis.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Pompliano: Over $5T in stimulus needed to escape pandemic crisis
“I think it's going to end up being five plus trillion dollars needed to get out of this.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Pompliano: Fed printing trillions will eventually trigger an inflationary environment
“What I think we're seeing right now is the feds fighting a deflation and you just, they're not going to win right until they start printing trillions and trillions of dollars. And when they do that, we will eventually get back into an inflationary environment.”
Prediction Held up
Pompliano: COVID-19 mortality rates will be much lower in retrospect
“One of the things that I personally think we're not going to get this for probably three to five years, but we're going to look back three to five years from now. We're going to say the death rates that were originally thought are going to be nowhere near wher…”
Opinion
Pompliano: Economic value cannot treat every life as equal
“Do you, can you put the same quote unquote dollar amount on a life of somebody at the end of life versus somebody who's 25 years old, right? And I tend to think that it's unlikely that you would put the same value, right? Especially economic output standpoint …”
Insight
Pompliano: Distressed corporations should face market terms over federal bailouts
“And by the way, if you want to shore up your balance sheet, you should have to go to the debt or equity markets and get the capital. Like that's how, that's the cost of doing business. And so I don't think we want to get in this world where like corporations b…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Pompliano: Top asset managers reject public pension capital to avoid FOIA requests
“Unfortunately in most of the cases, the best asset management firms have not taken public pension money. Because they're scared of the freedom of information act request. And so therefore they don't have the people who need it the most, the police officers, th…”
Insight
Pompliano: Crisis bailouts are timed when public desperation allows socialist control
“The whole playbook is during a time of crisis, you wait until the American people's will has been broken. And then once their will has been broken and they absolutely are as desperate as possible, that's when you bail them out. And when you bail them out, it b…”
Opinion
Pompliano: Taxing billionaires transfers capital to notoriously bad government allocators
“You want to take money from the greatest wealth allocators or capital allocators and give it to the people who are notoriously the worst capital allocators in the world. That sounds like wealth destruction to me, right?”
Assertion Supported
Pompliano: 99% of early Italian COVID-19 deaths had pre-existing conditions
“99% at one point of all of the deaths in Italy had either some other health concern or a pre-existing condition.”
Opinion
Pompliano: Stimulus must be either zero checks or full UBI
“I'm of the belief of you have to go to one or the other extreme. You can't kind of put one foot in the water here. So either you give everybody zero and you just say, we are not going to give money. We are not even going to go down that path and people need to…”
Assertion Contradicted
Pompliano: China's demographic trajectory mirrors the US 50 years ago
“Demographically China is basically doing what the U.S. Did, you know, 50 years ago, right? They've got a much younger population and kind of the way that they're growing.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Pompliano predicts net loss of corporate jobs following pandemic layoffs
“My guess is it's going to be less than the number of people they left off. So actually what we're going to see is a net loss of job opportunities over the lifetime of this crisis.”
Opinion
Pompliano: US Is Not the Global Leader in AI, Ed/Health, or Crypto
“Like average to above average in all three of those buckets today. But there's a lot of room for improvement. And I don't think that we're the best at any of those.”
Prediction Partly held up
Pompliano: Gold will crack $2,000 but not exceed $2,500
“My opinion is that it'll probably go, it'll crack 2000, but it won't go past 2500, right? So it'll kind of end up in like a 2020, a hundred dollar gold price point.”
Insight
Pompliano: Liquidity panics drive all major asset correlations to one
“In times of uncertainty, they want dollars. And so what ends up occurring is all of those other assets end up Going to close to a correlation of one. So they all start going down. And we saw that with Bitcoin, gold, you know, treasuries equities, real estate, …”
Prediction Partly held up
Pompliano: 2020 Pandemic Bailouts Will Widen US Wealth Inequality Gap
“And I think the same thing's going to happen here. Unfortunately, Is we're just going to continue to see a widening of that wealth inequality gap because the rich, right? And it's not even the top, it's like the top two percent understand how the game is playe…”
Insight
Pompliano: Maximizing economic efficiency inherently sacrifices resilience
“So you either can be an efficient economy, right? Or I think what you're describing there kind of lower the cost of production as much as you can. And what you give up is that resilience or that durability.”
