Prediction Didn’t hold up
Jeff Booth: Technology Will Prevent Net Global Job Growth
“There's not going to be net global job gain globally. Right. Through, through what's happening with technology.”
Opinion
Booth: Further government debt is ineffective as system is past rescue
“It actually doesn't matter because we're already so far past the point of rescue that, that, that, that, that, that more and more debt is going to be ineffective.”
Opinion
Booth: Governments Should Not Bail Out Companies, Let Them Fail
“Should you bail out these companies across the board? No, you shouldn't. You should let them all fail, and the people with cash will win.”
Opinion
Booth: The Stock Market Is an Illusion Detached From Fundamentals
“The fed is the market, right? With the stock market is an illusion. Today it's completely detached from reality of fundamentals.”
Opinion
Booth: WeWork's peak $45B valuation was essentially a Ponzi scheme
“WeWork looks like a really good business when it's valued at forty-five billion dollars, and everybody says, wow, this is great, because more It's a Ponzi scheme. More and more people racing in, and more and more people racing in, and then you take that away a…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Booth: Breaking Up US Big Tech Would Cede AI Superiority to China
“If Elizabeth Warren or anybody breaks up Amazon or Google or the giant AI companies, or Microsoft for that, that, that, that matter, effectively by doing that, you seed AI superiority to China.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2025
Booth: Bitcoin Will Eventually Become the Global Reserve Currency
“I'm a huge fan of Bitcoin, a huge fan of Bitcoin, because I think that it'll move to a reserve status that other currencies will be pegged to eventually.”
Insight
Booth: If One Government Accumulates Bitcoin Reserves, All Must Follow
“And if one does, Or if one starts accumulating behind the scenes, they all have to. It moves really, it starts to move really fast.”
Opinion
Booth: Bitcoin is the only logical peg for a new Bretton Woods
“I think it would be pegged to a digital, I think it would be pegged to Bitcoin. I think that's what, I think that's the most logical thing right now. And every government will say, no, peg it to my digital currency. But it doesn't, but whether it's a digital o…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Booth: War or revolution is a logical consequence of current wealth disparity
“That's why war revolution is a logical consequence out of where we are right now, because people don't believe it's their fault. They, people don't, they're caught in a system. It's really easy to prey on, on people's vulnerabilities when they can't eat and cr…”
Insight
Booth: Debt repayment requires higher taxes that will slow growth and cause deflation
“Now, the only way it doesn't become a drag on future growth, growth, and it becomes hyperinflationary, is when, logically, governments destroy their currencies, because they can't pay back the debt. But assuming they have to pay back the debt, somebody has to …”
Prediction Held up
Booth: The US Dollar Will Decline Once the Liquidity Crisis Ends
“Right now the US dollar is going up in value because governments around are all trying to get cash. Every company is trying to get cash and the US currency underlies 80% of world trade. It's the only reason it's going up in value right now. It will go down on …”
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2021
Booth: Interest rates are going to become very negative
“Interest rates are, they're going negative. They're going to be very negative.”
What-if
Booth: Real estate would be deflationary without central bank easing
“It would look deflationary just like everything else. If you didn't have this, if you didn't have if you didn't have this, and then your savings would be going up and you would be able to buy more for everything would look like that. You would follow the natur…”
Insight
Booth: Tech Monopolies Inevitably Reconsolidate Because Humans Cannot Handle Infinite Choice
“So even if you now break it back apart, somebody's going to sit on top and consolidate it back.”
Insight
Booth: Allowing technological deflation will reduce the need for jobs
“If you let deflation happen and let the natural order of things happen, you'd need far less of them. You'd, you'd work less. You would the, you would follow the trend and you'd be less, less, less work along the trend.”
Opinion
Booth: Rapid Bitcoin adoption would trigger a harmful global unwind
“As much as I believe in it, I don't want it to happen as fast as is, is it like likely it's happening because it means the world goes through a disorderly unwind. And that doesn't look good for even people with Bitcoin.”
Opinion
Booth: Reviving Legacy Coal Jobs Cannot Solve Technological Job Loss
“Every single government around the world is, is worried about the destruction of jobs, which is a logical consequence of technology. And going back in and creating coal jobs is not going to solve that problem, right?”
Assertion Supported
Booth: $185T in Global Debt Generated Only $46T of GDP Growth
“Over a 185 trillion dollars has been added to global debt in the last 20 years to produce 46 trillion dollars of economic return in GDP.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2021
Booth: China will devalue its currency
“And if China is going to devalue the currency, which they will devalue their currency, right?”
Opinion
Booth: Governments will not trust each other enough for a new Bretton Woods
“Governments are unlikely to trust each other in this current environment to be able to create that.”
Insight
Booth: Bailing Out Companies While Subsidizing Consumers Is an Unsustainable Waste
“At some point, like the system just like, it's just such a colossal waste of money on both, both fronts. And you can't keep doing that.”
Assertion Supported
Booth: Over 60% of AI Investment Comes from Tech Monopolies
“I think it's over 60% of the dollars invested in AI are coming from the monopoly companies.”
Disclosure
Booth Allocates 10% of Personal Net Worth to Bitcoin
“10%.”
