Venture capital, startups and investing, on tape.

Every prediction, opinion and bold claim from the Pitch: extracted from the transcript, verified against the tape, checked against cited public sources, playable at the exact moment it was said.

Changed Positions Same person, opposite position. Both tapes, side by side. 1 on record Star Treatment Does prominence change the questions? Every guest, plotted. prominence vs. host pushback Supercuts Didn’t hold up · Held up · Said with certainty exact-quote reels The Argument Index Debate potential by speaker, and the companies with the most bearish calls. debate potential, ranked The Numbers Museum Every figure ever claimed, checked where possible. 1,138 figures Entities Every company, fund and idea the show has opinions about, sources attached. 3,491 on the record The Calls Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. 19 open The Pulse What the Valley talks about, year by year, since 2023. who said it first Straight Answers Who answers the question asked, measured. Every moment timestamped and playable. 2 questions not answered directly The Wisdom Wall The lessons worth keeping. No fortune cookies. 407 insights The Graph Three years of people, companies and ideas as one map. explore connections Speaking Style Measured from raw, unedited recordings only. 0 speakers scored

Recently on the ledger full ledger →

Assertion Not checkable as stated

Allen: A VC told me I was "too young and too Black"

“I remember my first company, I actually had a venture MD pull me aside and tell me I was too young and too black to get funded. Like they weren't gonna listen.”

Kevin Allen Mar 4, 2025 ▶ 27:30 #94 The Breaking Point

Insight

Nadel: Founders investing VC money must pay the minimum possible wage

“When you're investing your own money, do the right thing. When you're investing my money, pay the minimum you can pay.”

Phil Nadel Mar 3, 2025 ▶ 23:10 #3 Industrial Organic

Opinion

Diamond: Hershberg's 20% equity versus PE's 80% is egregious

“You only own 20% of the company. Meanwhile, the original partners of the brewery own 80% of the company. It's our opinion that, like, fundamentally those numbers are a bit egregious, and we think, like, they literally should be swapped.”

Howie Diamond Mar 4, 2025 ▶ 27:29 #119 Amateur Golf Society: Venture Capital vs. Private Equity

Prediction Not checkable as stated

Brown: Killers Will Join Uncovered and Have Their IPs Tracked

“The killers will come and become members of Uncovered, and we'll track their IPs, and we'll give that information to law enforcement to solve these cases.”

Jim Brown Mar 4, 2025 ▶ 6:00 #118 Uncovered: The Business of True Crime

Prediction Not checkable as stated

Stahl: HILOS operating profit margins will exceed Google and Amazon next year

“The, if you look at profit, we are, our operating profit by next year will be over. More profitable than Google or Amazon, because we don't fundamentally invest or hold the costs of the things that we fulfill for brands.”

Elias Stahl Mar 4, 2025 ▶ 13:38 #113 HILOS: Is This The Perfect Business?

Assertion Not checkable as stated

Muccio: James Altucher ghosted every founder he committed to on The Pitch

“He did that to every founder he committed to on our show, and he also did it to the show.”

Josh Muccio Mar 4, 2025 ▶ 18:33 #96 A Test of Time

How the calls resolved the full record →

Assertion Supported

Brawer: Podcast AI is in Jason Calacanis's LAUNCH accelerator

“So we're in Jason's accelerator, so launch.”

Edward Brawer May 15, 2024 ▶ 20:29 $1.5M on the Line! Raising Venture Capital for the Future of Podcast Automation Software!

Assertion Contradicted

Castellanos: There are 175,000 mid-sized QSR locations in the market

“There are a 175,000 QSRs with 20 to a hundred locations, and so we've got a lot of market share left to get in restaurants first.”

Luisa Castellanos Apr 23, 2025 ▶ 16:09 This Startup Solves a Billion-Dollar Problem in Restaurants with AI – Will It Get Funded?

Assertion Supported

SECURE Act 2.0 allows $35,000 rollovers from 529s to Roth IRAs

“January first of this year, the Secure Act two point O came into effect, effectively allowing 35,000 dollars to rollover from a five to nine account to a Roth IRA account. Now, this rollover is a very complex and admin heavy process that takes multiple years. …”

Phil Bearer Aug 14, 2024 ▶ 3:55 The Secret to Building Wealth for Your Children

Assertion Contradicted

Trofimova: CPG brands spend $2T globally on untraceable marketing

“It's two trillion dollars globally is what they spend on marketing, completely in the blind, with no traceability.”

Anastasia Trofimova Jun 18, 2025 ▶ 19:58 LTK for Food… Will VCs invest in this $10 TRILLION market!?

Open predictions the full timeline →

171days Lee: Sene will reduce delivery lead times to 5-7 days Ray Lee · prediction date: 2027-03-03 172days Besenval: Natrion expects to fill its first purchase orders in two years Alex Besenval · prediction date: 2027-03-04 537days Israel expects Hava Health's time to market to be 36 months Josh Israel · prediction date: 2028-03-03 538days Gutwein: Modern Picnic will sell for $50 million in two to three years Victor Gutwein · prediction date: 2028-03-04

Track records all people →

Ordered by full support rate, then by supported count. Minimum three resolved. Partly supported claims count as resolved but not as fully supported, same as everywhere on the ledger.

Person	Eps	Statements	Supported	Partly supported	Full support rate
Kayla Epps	2	7	5	0	100%
Jim Brown	2	27	5	0	100%
Kelsey Willock	2	20	4	0	100%
Christine Locker	2	21	4	0	100%
Khalil Zahar	2	25	4	0	100%
Bill Smith	2	13	3	0	100%
Chase Robbins	2	56	3	0	100%
Xiao Wang	2	19	6	1	86%

From the Wisdom Wall all quotes →

“when you build a SaaS company in Latin America, Numbers are not easy to build a one billion company, but when you create a transactional model on your product, that changes.”

Ariel Puga, Sep 24, 2025 · ▶ 16:33

“But when I think about, especially things in ed tech, where I think there's an AI element, I think like, what is AI good at doing today? Where do I think it will be in 12 and 24 months, and what does…”

Charles Hudson, May 7, 2025 · ▶ 25:48

“The challenge that we found is you actually need people to give you Mint-like access to their data, because if, if I, if all I know is your paycheck, I don't know your credit score. I don't know how…”