The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 247 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 31 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Brown: Killers Will Join Uncovered and Have Their IPs Tracked
“The killers will come and become members of Uncovered, and we'll track their IPs, and we'll give that information to law enforcement to solve these cases.”
Stahl: HILOS operating profit margins will exceed Google and Amazon next year
“The, if you look at profit, we are, our operating profit by next year will be over. More profitable than Google or Amazon, because we don't fundamentally invest or hold the costs of the things that we fulfill for brands.”
Hyatt: AI prediction engines will eventually make human user research obsolete
“I think I could invest in your company, and I think for the next two, three years, you can make some money, but I don't think you're going to be right for long, because I believe we have to wipe out all the people, and you have to make a prediction engine that…”
Sorensen predicts in-flight nut death will force overnight airline nut bans
“I, I'm convinced that in the next five years, there'll be someone that dies on a plane from nuts, and overnight, the whole industry will be nut-free, or allergy-friendly. Like, I am so convinced in my heart that that will happen.”
Conwell: Podcast AI will be replicable as a weekend project by 2025
“Yeah, I hate to be the killjoy of the year, but literally a year from now, somebody wanted to recreate podcast AI, they'll probably be able to do it as a weekend project.”
Brown: Uncovered Will Track Killers' IP Addresses When They Join
“We do believe that the killers will come and become members of Uncovered, and we'll track their IPs, and we'll give that information to law enforcement to help solve these cases.”
Yin: AI will benefit end users, but who will actually make money?
“Because I think AI technologies in the long run are going to be great for consumers and end users, but I don't know who makes money.”
Forenza: Aware projects achieving $100M ARR within five years
“We're projecting a hundred million ARR in five years. So about 400,000 units.”
Elias: Competitors won't produce collector-free conformal batteries for a decade
“It's something that's not seen in the industry right now. It is emerging, I would say, in academia, and you might see it from other players in the next decade, but we're first movers because we had so much experience prior to starting this company.”
Callegari: 15 US Stores Will Generate $50M Revenue in Five Years
“15 locations provide us a scale that allow us to build the next five years a fifty million revenues business.”
Callegari Predicts $100M Acquisition at Just $20M in Revenue
“Already when we are in the range of 20 to twenty-five million, we are already the perfect target for luxury conglomerates, and I think the value is going to be in excess of one hundred million based on comparable transaction.”
Burton: Lockstop Devices Generate $750 Annually From Data Monetization
“So each device generates about 750 dollars a year on its own.”
Robbins: Mature Handle stores will generate $2M in revenue and $500K profit
“There are 500 universities in the U.S. Where, that we've identified are viable markets for this, and if you just do the napkin math, our average store at maturity is going to be doing two million a year, so it's a billion in revenue, and then it's about 25% of…”
HILOS projects $3M in revenue next year, $16M the following year
“Right now we're looking at three million in revenue next year from the brands we currently have signed and under contract, and we believe we have a very strong pathway to get to sixteen million the following year.”
Besenval: Pure ceramic solid-state battery tech will take 10 years to scale
“Probably more than several is the thing. We're talking about millions and millions of EVs as soon as twenty-thirty, right? So really we need a solution in kind of the next five years. So yeah, there are companies that have solutions that are going to be fantas…”
Dufu: The Cru will reach 200,000 members and $100M revenue in 5 years
“So five years from now, we're at 200,000 members. So that gets us to, you know, a hundred million”
Michael Hyatt predicts Vetd will reach $40M valuation at $1M revenue
“These guys get any traction. The valuation is going to be at 40, fifty million. I'm telling you. I know these enterprise companies are gonna help with bananas. He gets a million of revenues, it's gonna be 20 x, 30 x.”
Chapman: Hykso can become the next Strava or Peloton
“I think there's a future here. I think you can become something like a Strava or a Peloton.”
Jonathan Kumar projects Samaritan capping out as a $25M annual business
“I think when we win, this is a 15 to twenty-five million dollar a year business, so it's not in a stratosphere in terms of VCs and Facebook-type valuations, so we definitely believe there are returns to be had.”
Nadel: Subscription flight models will inevitably suffer adverse selection from super-users
“Ultimately, people who are traveling one or two times a month are going to say, eh, this isn't worth it. I think that this kind of pricing model lends itself to the super users over time. That's who's going to gravitate towards it, and the ones who aren't usin…”
Brownridge: DogSpot projects $100M ARR with 10,000 units in five years
“So we're able to reach a hundred million annual recurring revenue with 10,000 houses out. We have a five-year plan to get there.”
Dixon predicts consumers will eventually buy everything from automated self-service machines
“So it's a matter of time before we're buying everything out of self-service machines.”
Kowalski: Atomos projects $1.3B exit valuation by 2025
“So based on what we project with a couple of contracts a year, we would exit about 1.3 billion dollars in 2025.”
Clark: Atomos vehicle will reach $500M annual revenue in mid-2020s
“So our full commercial vehicle will be operational in the early to mid-twententies with five hundred million annual revenue.”
Chapman: Somewear's market will end up being enterprise, not consumer
“In my heart of hearts, I feel like your market is going to end up being more in the enterprise than it's going to end up being out on the trail.”
Dickson predicts investors will hug her for tokenizing the cap table
“When my investors understand the token economics and how the cap table will be tokenized to their advantage and their return, they're going to be giving me hugs. They're going to be putting my picture up in their office because I'll be a great return for them.”
Gulati: ROWViGOR Will Not Become a Venture-Scale Business
“You'll, you'll make a business. It just won't be a disruptive venture-scale business.”
Agrawal: People will not continue using toilet paper long-term
“There's no, absolute, no way in hell that People are going to continue to use toilet paper moving for the next X number of years. It's just not sustainable.”
Howie Diamond: Teamable could be a $500M to $1B exit
“Like, I do think it's overvalued, but I do think that this could be one of those opportunities where it's like a half a billion to a billion dollar exit, if not more, based on your hustle, based on, you know, all the things that you've said, based on your attr…”
Chapman: Tesla will ban commercial Supercharger access if Tesloop scales
“If you scale up and you've got a hundred cars on the road to Palm Springs every day, and the other Tesla drivers who are not commercial drivers cannot get a supercharger, I guarantee you Tesla is gonna say, no commercial use, you are not allowed to use our sta…”
Dicko: Skylights will be the top VR entertainment distributor in two years
“And so very, very strongly we are in a position, this is our point, we are in a position to, within the next two years, to become the number one virtual reality entertainment distributor in the world.”
Borden: Remynt will reach a $1B valuation and IPO
“And I am hundred percent confident That we are going to crush it and be a billion dollar company and be the third publicly traded debt buyer collector. I have no doubt in my mind.”
Desai: Kinemetrix will probably be acquired within five years
“Five years from now, I think we are probably going to be bought out by some medical device, either remote video monitoring, someone that wants that software solution that plugs in place for their product.”
Yin: Christy's Chips is easily a billion-dollar business
“If she continues, it's easily a billion dollar business. Easily.”
Hudson: Four or five top Precursor outcomes will be product companies
“We have four or five of our biggest outcomes at the firm level will be product companies, actually not software companies.”
Sánchez: $5T in Manufacturing Trade to Shift to LatAm
“It is expected that five trillion dollars from manufacturing trade will shift into Latin America in the next five years.”
Hudson: Generative imagery will be deflationary as clients capture the savings
“My current thesis is it's going to be very deflationary, and the customers are going to want to recoup and claw back a big chunk of that savings.”
Williams: RedDrop will reach $100M revenue within three years
“I have no doubt that we will be
Eight figures in 18 months, and nine figures in probably 24 to 36 for sure.”
Forenza: Aware's ear cuff will be a fashion statement destigmatizing mental wellness
“We believe that it's going to be a fashion statement, but also a way to tell people, I care about my mental wellness. So this is a way to remove also the stigma that is associated to mental wellness, and that's why we believe it's going to be really powerful.”
Muccio: VCs clinging to traditional rules will get left behind
“VCs used to hold all the power, and they demanded a lot from founders, but now founders seem to be realizing how much power they have too, and there's more early-stage VCs than ever to choose from. So the ones that continue to play by the old rules We'll get l…”
Middleton projects CurieDx will make $500K annually, rejecting founder's $6M estimate
“The financial part, she needs to button up, because my math is she'll make 500,000 dollars a year in the next two years, not six million.”
Material expects its battery manufacturing costs to reach $85–$90 per kWh
“We expect to be able to manufacture at somewhere around the 85 to 90 dollars per kilowatt hour.”
Castellanos targets $125M ARR for Science on Call in five years
“Yeah, I think in the next five years we want to be at a hundred and twenty-five million in ARR, and that'll include going abroad to other countries, Europe and Latin America, as well as convenience stores and retail, and we want to be able to automate 80% of w…”
Callegari: 95% of New Shareholder Value Will Come From the US
“No, what we believe is that 95% of the shareholder value we're going to generate in the next year will come from the US.”
Wong: Enterprise clients will not cut FolioWorks out due to reporting burdens
“I don't think that means they're going to cut us out. I think that it would take a lot of effort for them to do all the reporting that's required to Create a work study-approved job, and then do all of the reporting that's completed by us, but we're building t…”
Burton: Lockstop expects to break even within 24 months
“In 24 months is when we expect to hit our break-even point, and so that 1.5 takes us all the way to that position where we're generating our own revenue and we're floating our own boat.”
Howie Diamond: Outlines won't achieve mainstream adoption due to high prices
“I don't see the mainstream adoption for this product because the price is way too high and way too premium for me to
To get involved in this because I just think it's going to be a very, very small select people who care about the environmental impacts to get …”