Insight
Conwell: VCs Automatically Assume Black-Focused Startup Markets Are Small
“When VCs hear black, they automatically think small. Every time.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Conwell: Podcast AI will be replicable as a weekend project by 2025
“Yeah, I hate to be the killjoy of the year, but literally a year from now, somebody wanted to recreate podcast AI, they'll probably be able to do it as a weekend project.”
Insight
Conwell: Check VC references by calling founders of failed portfolio companies
“Don't ask the investors for references to founders. Go to their portfolio list on their website and find a company that's no longer in existence. And reach out to that founder on LinkedIn. A founder of a failed company is going to give you a lot more informati…”
Insight
Conwell: Breakthrough brewing processes come from industry outsiders, not incumbents
“The process you develop is only gonna come from somebody who's not in the beer industry. Like, somebody in the beer industry who wouldn't even ever think to try what you did to create what you did, because it doesn't, it probably doesn't make sense to them.”
Insight
Conwell: Investors over-index on bombastic founders over measured operators
“People tend to over index on the bombastic founder and less on the more measured. And sometimes the more measured founder is the one who's going to be the better operator.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Conwell: Gecko Materials could be a multi-billion-dollar government business
“I mean, this is, this could be a billion, this would be a multi-billion dollar company just working with the government.”
Insight
Conwell: Shuttering DTC removes the primary marketing tool for ingredient licensing
“The reason is the D to C side is just the marketing. So if you get rid of the DTC brand, you've now taken away your largest marketing tool for the industry.”
Opinion
Conwell: Robe Curls can reach $25M revenue but not a billion
“But this gets you to ten million. This gets you to twenty-five million. This doesn't get you to a billion.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Conwell: AI podcast tools face a race to the bottom without marketing
“This is going to be a race to the bottom. The way you win is you become the market leader and become the market leader now. You better raise a ton of money, put that stuff in the marketing, and be the only name that people think about, because there are other …”
Opinion
Conwell: Product-Led Growth Will Not Win in Podcast Automation
“Product-led growth isn't going to win in this space.”
Opinion
Conwell: Retail tech startups rarely reach billion-dollar exit valuations
“For products like this one, we haven't seen the exit values for these type of companies, right? They're not getting, not enough of them are getting to that, that billion dollar level, right?”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Conwell: Consumer backlash against AI-generated models is 10 to 15 years away
“I think we got like, 10 or 15 years before people start the backlash.”
Opinion
Conwell: After 18 months, Terrascope's founder still does not know his customer
“He didn't know how to sell it. He didn't know who he's selling it to. And having been doing this for a year and a half, that's a problem.”
Opinion
Conwell: Dominating Europe's virtual power plant market creates a massive company
“If he can make it work in Sweden, even if he doesn't get to the US, if he can own the Europe. Still a big company.”
Opinion
Conwell: Feedback Intelligence's target valuation of $13.3M is a bit pricey
“That is a bit pricey for me.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Conwell: AI feedback intelligence is an overlooked problem poised for growth
“I can believe this is a problem that not many people are paying as much attention to just yet, but people will.”
Opinion
Conwell: Credit-rebuilding debt collection programs will generate customer brand loyalty
“And so I can imagine if I'm working with a program that helps me build my credit, there's gonna be some brand loyalties.”
Opinion
Mac Conwell says domain operators make better founders than outside technologists
“I love founders who are building in the space that they have deep knowledge in, who aren't the technologists, but who are the true operators and understand it.”
Opinion
Mac Conwell says the event space is very difficult for startups
“Generally, I'm not excited with the event space. It can be a very hard space.”
Disclosure
Conwell: RareBreed will invest at least $50,000 in Kinemetrix
“So I, I'd be excited for Rare Breed to participate at minimum 50, maybe more, you know, going over due diligence and timing, but we got this.”
Insight
Conwell: CPG brands face a hard growth plateau around $2M to $3.5M
“It can be really, really tough for a new brand to break in, but even more so, it becomes really tough for a new brand to scale. Like, I've seen companies get two million in revenue, 3.5, it starts to plateau. And then it seems like there becomes a different ga…”
Insight
Conwell: Government contracts are a proven playbook for lab spinouts
“We have seen massive companies build, come out of labs, start in government, and then over time transition, and the technologies that come from government are usually very transformative and usually really big companies.”
Opinion
Conwell: No clear winner exists yet in child-focused wealth investing
“There's a couple of players in it. But there's not like, there's no clear winner.”
Assertion Supported
Conwell: Maryland called back Osmosis investment with interest before acquisition
“The state of Maryland does the deal. The company starts growing, moves to Colorado. When they moved to Colorado, the state of Maryland asked for their money back. With just the interest. So no real upside. And four years after that, so I guess two years ago, t…”
