The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 40 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Conwell: VCs Automatically Assume Black-Focused Startup Markets Are Small
“When VCs hear black, they automatically think small. Every time.”
Conwell: Podcast AI will be replicable as a weekend project by 2025
“Yeah, I hate to be the killjoy of the year, but literally a year from now, somebody wanted to recreate podcast AI, they'll probably be able to do it as a weekend project.”
Conwell: Check VC references by calling founders of failed portfolio companies
“Don't ask the investors for references to founders. Go to their portfolio list on their website and find a company that's no longer in existence. And reach out to that founder on LinkedIn. A founder of a failed company is going to give you a lot more informati…”
Conwell: Breakthrough brewing processes come from industry outsiders, not incumbents
“The process you develop is only gonna come from somebody who's not in the beer industry. Like, somebody in the beer industry who wouldn't even ever think to try what you did to create what you did, because it doesn't, it probably doesn't make sense to them.”
Conwell: Investors over-index on bombastic founders over measured operators
“People tend to over index on the bombastic founder and less on the more measured. And sometimes the more measured founder is the one who's going to be the better operator.”
Conwell: Gecko Materials could be a multi-billion-dollar government business
“I mean, this is, this could be a billion, this would be a multi-billion dollar company just working with the government.”
Conwell: Shuttering DTC removes the primary marketing tool for ingredient licensing
“The reason is the D to C side is just the marketing. So if you get rid of the DTC brand, you've now taken away your largest marketing tool for the industry.”
Conwell: Robe Curls can reach $25M revenue but not a billion
“But this gets you to ten million. This gets you to twenty-five million. This doesn't get you to a billion.”
Conwell: AI podcast tools face a race to the bottom without marketing
“This is going to be a race to the bottom. The way you win is you become the market leader and become the market leader now. You better raise a ton of money, put that stuff in the marketing, and be the only name that people think about, because there are other …”
Conwell: Product-Led Growth Will Not Win in Podcast Automation
“Product-led growth isn't going to win in this space.”
Conwell: Retail tech startups rarely reach billion-dollar exit valuations
“For products like this one, we haven't seen the exit values for these type of companies, right? They're not getting, not enough of them are getting to that, that billion dollar level, right?”
Conwell: Consumer backlash against AI-generated models is 10 to 15 years away
“I think we got like, 10 or 15 years before people start the backlash.”
Conwell: After 18 months, Terrascope's founder still does not know his customer
“He didn't know how to sell it. He didn't know who he's selling it to. And having been doing this for a year and a half, that's a problem.”
Conwell: Dominating Europe's virtual power plant market creates a massive company
“If he can make it work in Sweden, even if he doesn't get to the US, if he can own the Europe. Still a big company.”
Conwell: Feedback Intelligence's target valuation of $13.3M is a bit pricey
“That is a bit pricey for me.”
Conwell: AI feedback intelligence is an overlooked problem poised for growth
“I can believe this is a problem that not many people are paying as much attention to just yet, but people will.”
Conwell: Credit-rebuilding debt collection programs will generate customer brand loyalty
“And so I can imagine if I'm working with a program that helps me build my credit, there's gonna be some brand loyalties.”
Mac Conwell says domain operators make better founders than outside technologists
“I love founders who are building in the space that they have deep knowledge in, who aren't the technologists, but who are the true operators and understand it.”
Mac Conwell says the event space is very difficult for startups
“Generally, I'm not excited with the event space. It can be a very hard space.”
Conwell: RareBreed will invest at least $50,000 in Kinemetrix
“So I, I'd be excited for Rare Breed to participate at minimum 50, maybe more, you know, going over due diligence and timing, but we got this.”
Conwell: CPG brands face a hard growth plateau around $2M to $3.5M
“It can be really, really tough for a new brand to break in, but even more so, it becomes really tough for a new brand to scale. Like, I've seen companies get two million in revenue, 3.5, it starts to plateau. And then it seems like there becomes a different ga…”
Conwell: Government contracts are a proven playbook for lab spinouts
“We have seen massive companies build, come out of labs, start in government, and then over time transition, and the technologies that come from government are usually very transformative and usually really big companies.”
Conwell: No clear winner exists yet in child-focused wealth investing
“There's a couple of players in it. But there's not like, there's no clear winner.”
Conwell: Maryland called back Osmosis investment with interest before acquisition
“The state of Maryland does the deal. The company starts growing, moves to Colorado. When they moved to Colorado, the state of Maryland asked for their money back. With just the interest. So no real upside. And four years after that, so I guess two years ago, t…”
Mac Conwell: RareBreed checks with portfolio founders before investing in potential competitors
“I have several companies in my portfolio. They're not competitors today, but could be on their roadmap. So like, I have a thing where I always ask my founders if this is competitive. If they say no, it's cool with me.”
Mac Conwell commits $100K to FranShares at a $19M valuation
“So a nine, a 19 post
It's not the end of the world.
It's below 25.
Still in range.
I'm in for a hundred.”
Conwell: RareBreed Ventures reserves 10% of fund for off-thesis investments
“Well, 10% of the fund is for off-thesis investment, so if it's too high, I'll put it in the off-thesis bucket.”
Conwell: VC is built for founders whose only problem is money
“Figuring out how to grow is a problem money solves. A lot of founders we see have other problems that money doesn't solve that we're trying to get to. When you got a founder where their only problem is I need money to solve this problem. That is something that…”
Conwell: Passes on ChurchSpace due to policy of avoiding faith-based investments
“Due to My faith and the way I've looked at, like, faith-based investments, I've stayed away from it. Just, that's a thing. It's a no for me, because, like, I tend to stay away from the space.”
Conwell: Most EdTech startups burn capital before solving sales cycles
“Most ed tech companies fall apart because they run out of capital before they can figure out the sales cycle to be sustainable.”
Conwell commits $50,000 to Tether, pending a Delaware C-Corp conversion
“Pending that Delaware C-Corp, because you're not a Delaware C-Corp, like, I'm not, like I do North America, South America, the UK, and even then that's time tough. So if you're a Delaware C-Corp, I'm in, dollar amount, I'll match her. I'll match Elizabeth. I'l…”
Conwell: Passing on Remynt Due to Unresolved Customer Acquisition Concerns
“I'm really interested. I can't get over that hump just yet.”
Conwell would be 'really interested' if not conflicted by EarlyBird
“If it wasn't for the fact that I was an investor in Early Bird, oh, I'd be really interested right now.”
Conwell: Policy requires founder approval on conflicts before investing
“I have a policy where I have to talk to my founders first and see if there's a conflict, so I'm going to say no for now, but I'm going to introduce you to the founder, and if he says there's not, we could have another follow-up conversation.”
Conwell: Three Rarebreed portfolio companies used apparel only for initial traction
“We have three companies in our portfolio that started off with an apparel product, but that was never the business. And the apparel product did well enough that they got the traction where the big business came.”
Conwell: RareBreed Ventures commits $50,000 to Red Drop
“So yes, we, we've spent a couple minutes telling you how much we think this is incredible, and what you could do with it, so I'm in I'm gonna say I'm in for 50 K, I want to be in for a lot more if I could, I would tell you I'd give you the whole 500, but I can…”