Prediction Open AI assessment confidence: 90% certainty 3/5 debate potential 3/5

Lemkin: OpenAI will likely cancel or pause its hardware project

Jason Lemkin · Zuckerberg Back on X Challenging Codex & Claude Code | SK Hynix’s $26BN IPO · 20VC with Harry Stebbings · Jul 16, 2026 · at 8:01

Jason Lemkin (SaaStr) discusses OpenAI's hardware initiative following Apple's lawsuit against former Apple employees working on OpenAI's hardware device.

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“Listen, if I had to breathe the tea leaves, hardware is probably on the bubble. This was one of Sam's initiatives that made sense when everything was working and OpenAI had an unassailable lead over, over its competitors, right? Now everything's, you know, we chopped Sora. Why the hell did we buy TBPN? As great as it seemed six months ago, right? Hardware seemed like a great deal for six billion when I could get the legendary Johnny Ive, but his team stole everything. What's the point of like, this is just an effing distraction. For something that's gonna hem, it's gonna hemorrhage cash. I totally agree. I'm all in. Well, if we go back 60 weeks ago, I'm all in on persistent AI around us. So Zuck, like with his new eyewear and all that, but this has got to be almost on the cutting board. It's like the apple car. It's got to be close to being cut, and I think the reason this lawsuit may have happened is to push it over the line of getting cut. Just kill it, guys. Like, it's not directly cause and effect, but it really could push it over the line to just, let's, let's put a pause on this for a year, boys. Let's put a pause on it for a year.”

quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →

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