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Mike Novogratz

Founder and CEO, Galaxy Digital · 1 appearance on the record.

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investorfounderexecutive@novogratz ↗LinkedIn ↗galaxy.com ↗Wikipedia ↗

Mike Novogratz is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Galaxy Digital. Previously, he was a partner at Goldman Sachs and served as partner, president, and Chief Investment Officer of the Macro Fund at Fortress Investment Group.

12statements → 5claims → 2claims resolved → 4/5average certainty → 2.5/5average debate potential → ≈4.5/5argument clarity, estimated → 1said about them ↓

0 supported 1 partly supported 1 contradicted 3 not checkable as stated how the 5 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

2 predictions · 3 assertions · 2 opinions · 3 insights · 2 disclosures · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 5 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 2 are resolved, and 3 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Mike argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable contradicted claim

Prediction Didn’t hold up
Novogratz: Bitcoin and major currencies will trade on the same broker desks within five years
“There is absolutely no way that in a five years time, at least, you're not calling up your broker and saying, you know, dollar yen and cable and Bitcoin and Libra and gold, and they're going to all get traded on the same desk.”
Mike Novogratz Aug 12, 2019 ▶ 43:30 Michael Novogratz – Galaxy Digital (First Meeting, EP.06)

Expressed certainty vs assessment result

none yet certainty 1
none yet certainty 2
none yet certainty 3
50% certainty 4
0% certainty 5

weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet

How they sound: not measured why? →

We measure speaking style by listening to the audio itself, and a fair number needs at least 2,000 words from one person on tape we have measured. There is too little of Mike Novogratz on measured tape to publish a rate. This says nothing about how they speak.

Everything Mike Novogratz said on Capital Allocators that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Opinion
Novogratz: Bitcoin is finished as a project and serves as digital gold
“Bitcoin's kind of done. The project is finished. It's good enough to be decentralized gold. It doesn't have to change.”
Mike Novogratz Aug 12, 2019 ▶ 32:13 Michael Novogratz – Galaxy Digital (First Meeting, EP.06)
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Novogratz: Only offshore crypto exchanges with loose KYC are making real money
“The only place people are making real money is in the retail exchanges, and most of them offshore where they're taking all kinds of regulatory. They have more regulatory Movement. You know, not as tight on the KYC stuff, and so Binance, and Bitfinex, and I mea…”
Mike Novogratz Aug 12, 2019 ▶ 44:32 Michael Novogratz – Galaxy Digital (First Meeting, EP.06)
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Novogratz: Web3 protocols are 2 to 4 years away from real usability
“Now, Ethereum, and Algorand, and EOS, and Dfinity, and all of these other protocols are vying to be Web. This decentralized global supercomputer where we process data in a private or cryptographic way to retain our privacy and bring efficiency, and this wonder…”
Mike Novogratz Aug 12, 2019 ▶ 32:29 Michael Novogratz – Galaxy Digital (First Meeting, EP.06)
Insight
Novogratz: Web3 cloud protocols target a smaller market than Bitcoin's digital gold
“The whole market clap of the cloud is less than a trillion dollars. So it's one-tenth of gold. Amazon's cloud, Google's cloud, Alibaba's cloud, take their cloud earnings, put a market cap. This is rough, rough math, but it's not eight trillion. And so that gro…”
Mike Novogratz Aug 12, 2019 ▶ 33:38 Michael Novogratz – Galaxy Digital (First Meeting, EP.06)
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Novogratz: Bitcoin and major currencies will trade on the same broker desks within five years
“There is absolutely no way that in a five years time, at least, you're not calling up your broker and saying, you know, dollar yen and cable and Bitcoin and Libra and gold, and they're going to all get traded on the same desk.”
Mike Novogratz Aug 12, 2019 ▶ 43:30 Michael Novogratz – Galaxy Digital (First Meeting, EP.06)
Insight
Novogratz: Macro Traders Almost Never Successfully Automate Their Intuition
“None of us, Most macro traders, and I've tried quant businesses over and over, have really ever been successful at programming themselves.”
Mike Novogratz Aug 12, 2019 ▶ 18:01 Michael Novogratz – Galaxy Digital (First Meeting, EP.06)
Opinion
Novogratz: Traditional VC funds misunderstand how to handle early crypto liquidity
“Even still, I think some of the great VC funds, they don't understand how to sell. And this isn't VC. This is kind of VC where the liquidity comes way too early.”
Mike Novogratz Aug 12, 2019 ▶ 28:09 Michael Novogratz – Galaxy Digital (First Meeting, EP.06)
Assertion Partly supported
Novogratz: Yale, Harvard, and Stanford endowments have already invested in crypto
“The Yale Endowment, which is always the leader, are already in, right? They made a fairly sizable investment with Paradigm, a firm out, out in California. Harvard and Stanford are in. University of Pennsylvania and Columbia are either in or getting in.”
Mike Novogratz Aug 12, 2019 ▶ 39:40 Michael Novogratz – Galaxy Digital (First Meeting, EP.06)
Disclosure
Novogratz bought Ethereum directly from Vitalik Buterin for 96 cents
“I actually bought Ethereum from Vitalik. No one else was selling, so I called him up, and he remembered me from the dinner, so he sold me some of his Ethereum at 96 cents, one of my great buys of life.”
Mike Novogratz Aug 12, 2019 ▶ 26:03 Michael Novogratz – Galaxy Digital (First Meeting, EP.06)
Insight
Novogratz: Only 1 in 100 traders match their portfolio to their conviction
“Stan Druckenmiller, when he's bullish, he's long. When he's bearish, he's short. You can say that about one in a hundred people. That's the hardest part of this job.”
Mike Novogratz Aug 12, 2019 ▶ 52:36 Michael Novogratz – Galaxy Digital (First Meeting, EP.06)
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Novogratz: Goldman desk made hundreds of millions on 1997 Asian crisis
“Goldman Sachs, Asia's blowing up, and we predicted it, had the foresight, and had some spectacularly highly leveraged bets that Asia would blow up that we were smart enough to figure out. It wasn't, I had so much courage that I took all this risk to make a for…”
Mike Novogratz Aug 12, 2019 ▶ 12:38 Michael Novogratz – Galaxy Digital (First Meeting, EP.06)
Disclosure
Novogratz: Ethereum was probably the greatest trade of my life
“When I look back on my life, the Ethereum trade probably is the greatest trade I ever had because I sold it. Some at a hundred and some at three 50 and bought it back and some at a thousand.”
Mike Novogratz Aug 12, 2019 ▶ 26:54 Michael Novogratz – Galaxy Digital (First Meeting, EP.06)

The other half of the tape: Mike Novogratz's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 1 time in 1 episode on Capital Allocators. every mention, with the transcript →

Who brings them up most Ted Seides 1

Every mention by year

tap a year for its mentions
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2022 1 mention in 1 episode

Appearances (1)

EpisodeDateSpeaking time
Michael Novogratz – Galaxy Digital (First Meeting, EP.06) Aug 12, 2019 40m
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