Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz discusses his trading pet peeves and the psychological difficulty of macro trading with Ted Seides.
Opinion
Novogratz: Bitcoin is finished as a project and serves as digital gold
“Bitcoin's kind of done. The project is finished. It's good enough to be decentralized gold. It doesn't have to change.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Novogratz: Only offshore crypto exchanges with loose KYC are making real money
“The only place people are making real money is in the retail exchanges, and most of them offshore where they're taking all kinds of regulatory. They have more regulatory Movement. You know, not as tight on the KYC stuff, and so Binance, and Bitfinex, and I mea…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Novogratz: Web3 protocols are 2 to 4 years away from real usability
“Now, Ethereum, and Algorand, and EOS, and Dfinity, and all of these other protocols are vying to be Web. This decentralized global supercomputer where we process data in a private or cryptographic way to retain our privacy and bring efficiency, and this wonder…”
Insight
Novogratz: Web3 cloud protocols target a smaller market than Bitcoin's digital gold
“The whole market clap of the cloud is less than a trillion dollars. So it's one-tenth of gold. Amazon's cloud, Google's cloud, Alibaba's cloud, take their cloud earnings, put a market cap. This is rough, rough math, but it's not eight trillion. And so that gro…”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Novogratz: Bitcoin and major currencies will trade on the same broker desks within five years
“There is absolutely no way that in a five years time, at least, you're not calling up your broker and saying, you know, dollar yen and cable and Bitcoin and Libra and gold, and they're going to all get traded on the same desk.”
Insight
Novogratz: Macro Traders Almost Never Successfully Automate Their Intuition
“None of us, Most macro traders, and I've tried quant businesses over and over, have really ever been successful at programming themselves.”