The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Novogratz: Bitcoin is finished as a project and serves as digital gold
“Bitcoin's kind of done. The project is finished. It's good enough to be decentralized gold. It doesn't have to change.”
Novogratz: Only offshore crypto exchanges with loose KYC are making real money
“The only place people are making real money is in the retail exchanges, and most of them offshore where they're taking all kinds of regulatory. They have more regulatory Movement. You know, not as tight on the KYC stuff, and so Binance, and Bitfinex, and I mea…”
Novogratz: Web3 protocols are 2 to 4 years away from real usability
“Now, Ethereum, and Algorand, and EOS, and Dfinity, and all of these other protocols are vying to be Web. This decentralized global supercomputer where we process data in a private or cryptographic way to retain our privacy and bring efficiency, and this wonder…”
Novogratz: Web3 cloud protocols target a smaller market than Bitcoin's digital gold
“The whole market clap of the cloud is less than a trillion dollars. So it's one-tenth of gold. Amazon's cloud, Google's cloud, Alibaba's cloud, take their cloud earnings, put a market cap. This is rough, rough math, but it's not eight trillion. And so that gro…”
Novogratz: Bitcoin and major currencies will trade on the same broker desks within five years
“There is absolutely no way that in a five years time, at least, you're not calling up your broker and saying, you know, dollar yen and cable and Bitcoin and Libra and gold, and they're going to all get traded on the same desk.”
Novogratz: Macro Traders Almost Never Successfully Automate Their Intuition
“None of us, Most macro traders, and I've tried quant businesses over and over, have really ever been successful at programming themselves.”
Novogratz: Traditional VC funds misunderstand how to handle early crypto liquidity
“Even still, I think some of the great VC funds, they don't understand how to sell. And this isn't VC. This is kind of VC where the liquidity comes way too early.”
Novogratz: Yale, Harvard, and Stanford endowments have already invested in crypto
“The Yale Endowment, which is always the leader, are already in, right? They made a fairly sizable investment with Paradigm, a firm out, out in California. Harvard and Stanford are in. University of Pennsylvania and Columbia are either in or getting in.”
Novogratz bought Ethereum directly from Vitalik Buterin for 96 cents
“I actually bought Ethereum from Vitalik. No one else was selling, so I called him up, and he remembered me from the dinner, so he sold me some of his Ethereum at 96 cents, one of my great buys of life.”
Novogratz: Only 1 in 100 traders match their portfolio to their conviction
“Stan Druckenmiller, when he's bullish, he's long. When he's bearish, he's short. You can say that about one in a hundred people. That's the hardest part of this job.”
Novogratz: Goldman desk made hundreds of millions on 1997 Asian crisis
“Goldman Sachs, Asia's blowing up, and we predicted it, had the foresight, and had some spectacularly highly leveraged bets that Asia would blow up that we were smart enough to figure out. It wasn't, I had so much courage that I took all this risk to make a for…”