Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedman: Tax incentives will force all US startups into Opportunity Zones
“It's going to encourage every single business that's going to start up United States. It's going to force it for tax reasons, for economic reasons, to be in an opportunity zone.”
Opinion
Friedman: The Community Reinvestment Act has largely been a failure
“The truth is, it's been a failure to a great extent, because there's so much paperwork, it's so artificial at times, that you make non-economic investments, and the money disappears, and that gets people upset, gets everyone upset.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedman advises shorting Silicon Valley and selling Palo Alto real estate
“In fact, I would short Silicon Valley right now. If you have real estate in Palo Alto, you should be selling it, because if you're in Silicon Valley, you're, Except for a small place in Silicon Valley, which is an opportunity zone, those businesses are all goi…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedman: Active managers will profit massively when indexation hits 95%
“I'm waiting for the day when the key is to have staying power to last, is when, you know, the machines or the indexes are 95% of the market. Then you'll make money hand over”
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2024
Friedman: Opportunity Zones will attract over $1 trillion in capital
“Right now it's probably seven, eight trillion dollars, but it's growing in another two and a half trillion dollars every year, and so that over a period of time, we believe at least a trillion dollars of capital is going to flow from one area, one geography, t…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedman: Opportunity Zones Will Negatively Impact Traditional Real Estate Markets
“It's going to have a negative impact on a lot of real estate that's in more traditional areas.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Friedman estimates Opportunity Zones will increase US GDP by 0.4%
“We estimate it'll increase GDP by four-tenths of percent.”
Opinion
Friedman: Government inaction on Lehman Brothers triggered the 2008 financial crisis
“The crisis was created when Lehman failed and the government did nothing. They just simply decided, well, we don't have the authority to act, which we know is not true, because you can read laws a million different ways. Once that happened, people lost confide…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2023
Friedman: Opportunity Zones will drive $1T to $3T in total investment
“It's creating a tax advantage way to invest in, in these areas, which I believe over time will have a big impact, and certainly one of the biggest impact over time is on the economy, because I believe it'll be One, two, three trillion dollars.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedman: Opportunity Zones will drive enormous regional bank loan demand
“This is an example where things are going to happen unbelievably quickly. It's gonna create enormous loan demand for small banks, regional banks, All over the country, and I believe, we'll see, I've been wrong a lot of times before, but I believe this will be …”
Prediction Held up
Friedman: The US will experience real wage inflation
“One view that is completely different from other people is I believe there will be real wage inflation in this country.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedman: Oil and legacy assets will become stranded within 20 years
“So I would argue lots of assets that you think are very, very valuable, such as oil, will eventually be stranded. Might take 10 years, might take 1520 years, but when it's stranded, it doesn't mean it's worthless, it means it's Worth a lot less than it is toda…”
Opinion
Friedman: Opportunity Zones are the biggest capital reallocation effort in his lifetime
“It's the biggest thing I've ever seen in my lifetime. To reallocate capital and let it flow and let it change the different parts of the country and let it equalize the economic areas of the country.”
Opinion
Friedman: Legacy community tax credits and job programs are ineffective
“Doesn't take away your low-income tax credits, doesn't take away New Market, doesn't take away any of the job credits, but let's be realistic. These programs are so tiny and so artificial, they're a joke. They're a pinhead in terms of the net effect, and so yo…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedman: Non-taxable allocators will invest in Opportunity Zones for higher returns
“There's no specific economic incentive. It's just they're going to get a higher return on their money. Do you want to be downtown New York, which where jobs are going to be moving out from, or do you want to be in Brooklyn or the tip of New York? Do you want t…”
Assertion Contradicted
Friedman: Port of Savannah is North America's fastest-growing port and 12% of GDP
“Savannah's the fastest growing port in North America. Period. No one's ever seen anything like it. It's now 12% of the GDP of the United States.”
Assertion Contradicted
Friedman: New Markets Tax Credit costs $200 to deliver $100
“Only to come up with a hundred dollars, it costs the government 200 dollars. It's a joke. It costs more to administer it, to put it together Then the net effect.”
Opinion
Friedman: Post-2008 systemic risk worsened due to global interconnectedness
“In fact, the Federal Reserve Board, after the oh eight, oh nine crisis, thought they were going to be able to protect the whole system from all these changes. In fact, It's gotten worse because the interlocking the world is something nobody can control, and th…”
Opinion
Friedman: TARP was brilliant and its critics misunderstand systemic risk
“And they did a brilliant, remarkable job. I can't believe that people still complain about TARP and what the government did. It's really because they literally lack an understanding of how the system works. How interconnected all the system is.”
Insight
Friedman: Machines and index funds become less effective as they grow
“I, when they're 20% of the market, it, you know, they're much more effective or the indexes than when they're 50. But by definition, the bigger they get, the more impossible it is.”
Prediction Held up
Friedman: US fiscal stimulus will cause big-city unskilled labor shortages
“Once you see the effect of these things, it's even gonna create in cities, in big cities, a, what we call an unskilled labor shortage.”
Insight
Friedman: The primary US divide is urban versus rural, not partisan politics
“If you really look at the split in this country, it's not between Clinton and Trump. It's not between Republican and Democrats. So much of it is really between Urban and rule where the rule parts are left behind and that portion is increasing.”
Opinion
Friedman: European negative interest rates are artificial and unprecedented
“Historically, we've never had in history, it's impossible, it's like we have in Europe, negative interest rates. There's no such thing in history, it's artificial.”
Opinion
Friedman: Opportunity Zones Will Be a Complete Failure Without Job Creation
“The fact is, which people don't realize, 70% of this is aimed at business. If this doesn't create jobs, Jobs, jobs, jobs. Then this is going to be a complete failure. You're going to have stranded real estate.”
