Prediction Held up AI assessment confidence: 85% certainty 3/5 debate potential 3/5

Direct lending returns will likely fall 200 basis points as banks re-enter

Kristin Kolurgis-Roland · Kristin Kallergis Rowland – Alts at J.P. Morgan's Private Bank (Private Wealth 4, EP.447) · May 26, 2025 · at 24:20

Kristin Kallergis Rowland, Global Head of Alternative Investments at J.P. Morgan Wealth Management, discusses return outlooks across private debt markets.

0:00 / 0:08exact quote · 8.9s

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“As that market continues to evolve, and as the banks start to get back into some of these areas, we do think returns are going to come down. Probably by about 200 basis points on average.”

quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →

The claim, plainly

Direct lending returns will likely decline by approximately 200 basis points on average as the private credit market evolves and commercial banks re-enter the lending space.

a quote alone can be ambiguous, so this restates it with the references and context of the conversation around it resolved. AI-written; the tape below the player is the source.

Assessment

On May 26, 2025, Kristin Kolurgis-Roland predicted that direct lending returns would decline by approximately 200 basis points on average as private credit markets evolved. Benchmark data from the Cliffwater Direct Lending Index (CDLI), the primary industry benchmark for middle-market direct lending, confirms this expectation. As of Q2 2025 (June 30, 2025), the CDLI reported a trailing four-quarter total return of 10.06%. By Q2 2026 (June 30, 2026, reported August 2026), the CDLI trailing four-quarter total return dropped to 7.71%, representing a decline of 235 basis points, well within the expected approximate 200 bps range (150 to 250 bps).

Cliffwater Direct Lending Index (CDLI) trailing four-quarter total returns dropped from 10.06% as of Q2 2025 to 7.71% as of Q2 2026.
The 235-basis-point drop in annualized total returns aligns with the forecasted ~200 bps decline in direct lending returns.
Supporting reporting from Lincoln International and S&P Dow Jones Indices confirmed steady spread compression across direct lending vintages through 2025 and 2026.

Checked against

[1] substack.com [2] youtube.com [3] cliffwater.com [4] youtube.com [5] cliffwater.com [6] prnewswire.com [7] peprofessional.com

Lincoln Senior Debt Index returns yield 2025 2026 Cliffwater Direct Lending Index Q1 2025 Q2 2025 Q4 2025 Q1 2026 Cliffwater Direct Lending Index CDLI yield return 2025 2026

assessed as of 2026-09-02

This assessment is an AI reading of a public statement, made against the cited references with the confidence shown. It can be wrong. The quote, the tape and the references are all on this page; if something is off, use report an error below. full disclaimer →

Mentioned

bank direct lending

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Disclosure

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“So we made a decision in 2013 to stop investing in some of the mega cap buyout funds because we felt like returns were coming down.”

Kristin Kolurgis-Roland May 26, 2025 ▶ 15:45 Kristin Kallergis Rowland – Alts at J.P. Morgan's Private Bank (Private Wealth 4, EP.447)

Insight

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Kristin Kolurgis-Roland May 26, 2025 ▶ 42:47 Kristin Kallergis Rowland – Alts at J.P. Morgan's Private Bank (Private Wealth 4, EP.447)

Assertion Not checkable as stated

Return dilution in evergreen funds ranges from 200 to 500 basis points

“Return dilution is anywhere from two to 500 basis points.”

Kristin Kolurgis-Roland May 26, 2025 ▶ 44:22 Kristin Kallergis Rowland – Alts at J.P. Morgan's Private Bank (Private Wealth 4, EP.447)

Insight

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Kristin Kolurgis-Roland May 26, 2025 ▶ 49:19 Kristin Kallergis Rowland – Alts at J.P. Morgan's Private Bank (Private Wealth 4, EP.447)

Assertion Supported

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“So if you look at the private equity industry, the data tells you that over the last decade, half the returns came from multiple expansion.”

Kristin Kolurgis-Roland May 26, 2025 ▶ 20:21 Kristin Kallergis Rowland – Alts at J.P. Morgan's Private Bank (Private Wealth 4, EP.447)

Prediction Not checkable as stated

Multiple expansion will no longer drive half of private equity returns

“That's not good or bad necessarily, but that's not going to persist.”

Kristin Kolurgis-Roland May 26, 2025 ▶ 20:27 Kristin Kallergis Rowland – Alts at J.P. Morgan's Private Bank (Private Wealth 4, EP.447)

Direct lending returns will likely fall 200 basis points as banks re-enter

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