Prediction Held up AI assessment confidence: 95% certainty 3/5 debate potential 3/5

Papic: UK and EU will likely reach a skeleton Brexit deal

Marko Papic · Marko Papic – Geopolitical Alpha at Clocktower Group (Capital Allocators, EP.161) · Oct 26, 2020 · at 40:27

Marko Papic, chief strategist at Clocktower Group, evaluates the status of Brexit negotiations between the UK and the European Union.

0:00 / 0:10exact quote · 10.3s
720p mp4 · rendered on demand · StarZero watermark
“In negotiations, look, I think the odds are that we do get some sort of deal, likely a deal on a skeleton that they will then negotiate through twenty-twenty-one.”

quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →

More from Marko Papic

Opinion
Papic: US asset outperformance driven by post-2020 fiscal spending is over
“It's the fiscal gravy train that gave us exceptionalism of the U.S. Asset flows from 20 20 to 20 25. That's over.”
Marko Papic Apr 14, 2025 ▶ 11:24 Geopolitical Uncertainty – James Aitken, Louis-Vincent Gave, and Marko Papic (EP.440)
Prediction Held up
Papic: Trump will likely moderate tariffs to 5-10% rather than 40%
“I think the response is going to be President Trump saying, I was actually going for five to 10% across the board of tariffs, not 40%. Once the market sniffs that out, I think it's very dangerous to be overly bearish on risk assets.”
Marko Papic Apr 14, 2025 ▶ 25:00 Geopolitical Uncertainty – James Aitken, Louis-Vincent Gave, and Marko Papic (EP.440)
Opinion
Papic: The U.S. Is Starting to Trade Like an Emerging Market
“What's happening right now in the U.S., and I don't want to be too facetious or critical, but the U.S. Is starting to trade in many ways like an emerging market.”
Marko Papic Apr 14, 2025 ▶ 41:21 Geopolitical Uncertainty – James Aitken, Louis-Vincent Gave, and Marko Papic (EP.440)
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Papic: Europe Will See a Tsunami of LNG Supply Disproving Deindustrialization
“Europe is going to be absolutely drowned in its tsunami wave of LNG supply that will crash on its shores over the next two years. This whole deindustrialization debate is wrong.”
Marko Papic Apr 14, 2025 ▶ 57:13 Geopolitical Uncertainty – James Aitken, Louis-Vincent Gave, and Marko Papic (EP.440)
Opinion
Papic: Commodities offer the best downside portfolio protection in stagflation
“And ironically, I think the best downside risk protection is commodities, which is weird because commodities should be correlated to growth. So when growth suffers, commodities should suffer with them. That's not really a good hedge the way bonds were. But I t…”
Marko Papic Feb 28, 2022 ▶ 16:52 Marko Papic – Geopolitical Shock in a Multi-Polar World (Capital Allocators, EP.237)
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Papic: China has peaked as a geopolitical power for the next decade
“So I think that China has peaked as a geopolitical power for the next decade.”
Marko Papic Feb 28, 2022 ▶ 23:45 Marko Papic – Geopolitical Shock in a Multi-Polar World (Capital Allocators, EP.237)
Made with StarZero

Turn any episode into a week of clips.

This entire site, over 700 episodes transcribed, diarized, checked and made playable, runs on the StarZero media pipeline. Drop in your own episode and the podcast clipper finds the moments worth sharing, cuts them, captions them, and reframes them for every feed.