Ben Reiter

Investigative Journalist and Author · 2 appearances on the record.

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Ben Reiter is a bestselling author and longtime Sports Illustrated writer best known for his 2014 cover story predicting the Houston Astros would win the 2017 World Series, which became the book Astroball. He later investigated the team's sign-stealing scandal, producing the podcast The Edge and the PBS FRONTLINE documentary The Astros Edge.

48statements → 31claims → 24claims resolved → 83%fully supported → 3.73/5average certainty → 2.15/5average debate potential → ≈4.5/5argument clarity, estimated → 5said about them ↓

20 supported 3 partly supported 1 contradicted 1 not yet assessed 6 not checkable as stated how the 31 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

4 predictions · 27 assertions · 9 opinions · 8 insights · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 31 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 24 are resolved, 1 is not yet assessed, and 6 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Ben argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Assertion Supported
Carlos Beltrán and Alex Cora led the Astros' sign-stealing scheme
“There was this specific makeup of the Astros clubhouse, in which one veteran in particular, one coach in particular, Carlos Beltran and Alex Cora, had a lot of influence in there. And in most ways, that influence was exerted in really positive ways, as far as …”
Ben Reiter Nov 30, 2020 ▶ 17:10 Ben Reiter – Over the Edge with the Houston Astros (Capital Allocators, EP.166)

Their most notable contradicted claim

Assertion Contradicted
Detroit Tigers had only one part-time analyst on staff in 2015
“It was about two years ago that the Detroit Tigers, for example, had like one part-time analyst on their whole staff. Two years ago, it was like maybe 2015 or going into 2016.”
Ben Reiter Aug 13, 2018 ▶ 16:20 Ben Reiter – Moneyball 2.0 (Capital Allocators, EP.64)

Expressed certainty vs assessment result

none yet certainty 1
none yet certainty 2
67% certainty 3
93% certainty 4
none yet certainty 5

weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet

How they sound: not measured why? →

We measure speaking style by listening to the audio itself, and a fair number needs at least 2,000 words from one person on tape we have measured. There is too little of Ben Reiter on measured tape to publish a rate. This says nothing about how they speak.

Everything Ben Reiter said on Capital Allocators that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Opinion
MLB contradicted its ethical stance by rushing Steve Cohen's ownership approval
“Baseball having just gotten through this huge ethical scandal. We've cleaned up the game. We've kicked Jeff Luno out for a year. We've kicked the manager out. We really care about ethics. And then they turn around and they rush through the approval process. A …”
Ben Reiter Nov 30, 2020 ▶ 42:24 Ben Reiter – Over the Edge with the Houston Astros (Capital Allocators, EP.166)
Assertion Supported
Carlos Beltrán and Alex Cora led the Astros' sign-stealing scheme
“There was this specific makeup of the Astros clubhouse, in which one veteran in particular, one coach in particular, Carlos Beltran and Alex Cora, had a lot of influence in there. And in most ways, that influence was exerted in really positive ways, as far as …”
Ben Reiter Nov 30, 2020 ▶ 17:10 Ben Reiter – Over the Edge with the Houston Astros (Capital Allocators, EP.166)
Insight
Sports team equity appreciation accrues entirely and tax-free to franchise owners
“Sports teams like never go down in valuation and people never want to sell them. So The entirety of that valuation goes to the owner. That's not shared with anybody else who helped create the wealth. Like players don't get stock or equity in the franchises the…”
Ben Reiter Nov 30, 2020 ▶ 23:39 Ben Reiter – Over the Edge with the Houston Astros (Capital Allocators, EP.166)
Opinion
Houston Astros remain a model for the pitfalls of high-performing organizations
“I would argue that the Astros remain a model organization. Right? An organization that we can learn from. But now we can learn a lot of different things, besides how to turn the laughing stock of sports into a champion in a few short years. We can learn about …”
Ben Reiter Nov 30, 2020 ▶ 5:47 Ben Reiter – Over the Edge with the Houston Astros (Capital Allocators, EP.166)
Assertion Supported
MLB's investigation report explicitly absolved Houston Astros owner Jim Crane
“The commissioner, in the very first paragraph, actually, which stuck out like a red thumb to me, the very first paragraph of this nine-page report completely absolved the owner of the team, Jim Crane, from any responsibility or accountability whatsoever.”
Ben Reiter Nov 30, 2020 ▶ 12:31 Ben Reiter – Over the Edge with the Houston Astros (Capital Allocators, EP.166)
Assertion Supported
MLB investigators could not prove GM Jeff Luhnow knew of cheating
“Major League Baseball, as I said, did an extensive investigation into this. Even they couldn't prove that Jeff Luno knew. You know, they looked at tens of thousands of emails and texts and They interviewed, like, dozens and dozens of witnesses, many of whom pr…”
Ben Reiter Nov 30, 2020 ▶ 15:13 Ben Reiter – Over the Edge with the Houston Astros (Capital Allocators, EP.166)
Assertion Supported
Electronic sign stealing in MLB was not limited to the Astros
“Sign stealing was not at all limited to the Astros, right? Nobody believes they're the only team doing it. They might've been pushing it farther than anybody else, but they weren't alone.”
Ben Reiter Nov 30, 2020 ▶ 19:52 Ben Reiter – Over the Edge with the Houston Astros (Capital Allocators, EP.166)
Insight
MLB commissioner acts as an executive beholden to team owners
“A lot of people think of the commissioner as this almost like judge like figure presiding over the game, looking out for the good of the sport above all else, like a steward. That's not what he is. I mean, Rob Manfred has even described himself as almost a CEO…”
Ben Reiter Nov 30, 2020 ▶ 20:09 Ben Reiter – Over the Edge with the Houston Astros (Capital Allocators, EP.166)
Assertion Supported
EEOC report documented systemic discrimination at Jim Crane's logistics company
“He had, the EEOC had issued a hundred page report some years earlier documenting discrimination within his companies. Hiring practices that were discriminating against minorities, that were discriminating against women.”
Ben Reiter Nov 30, 2020 ▶ 24:32 Ben Reiter – Over the Edge with the Houston Astros (Capital Allocators, EP.166)
Assertion Supported
A manager at Jim Crane's company was imprisoned for war profiteering
“There was a manager at his company who had been sent to jail for war profiteering.”
Ben Reiter Nov 30, 2020 ▶ 24:50 Ben Reiter – Over the Edge with the Houston Astros (Capital Allocators, EP.166)
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Most opposing pitchers did not hear the Astros' trash can banging
“They did this to over a hundred pitchers that year. Some of these guys, like guys with 20 years of experience, most of them didn't hear it down in the field, etc.”
Ben Reiter Nov 30, 2020 ▶ 27:02 Ben Reiter – Over the Edge with the Houston Astros (Capital Allocators, EP.166)
Insight
MLB revenue sharing and rising valuations disincentivize teams from winning
“Winning is, in baseball in particular, kind of less incentivized than you would think. So there's plenty of teams out there who don't seem to be trying to win very hard. They'll do anyway because of the revenue sharing structure, because of just the fact that …”
Ben Reiter Nov 30, 2020 ▶ 33:29 Ben Reiter – Over the Edge with the Houston Astros (Capital Allocators, EP.166)
Insight
Extreme analytical efficiency makes modern baseball an aesthetically stagnant product
“The most perfect, efficient base version of baseball means nothing happens, essentially. As you say, it's a lot of strikeouts. Hitters sell out to hit home runs. Fielders shift so that when hitters don't hit home runs, they'll be in perfect position to catch t…”
Ben Reiter Nov 30, 2020 ▶ 35:16 Ben Reiter – Over the Edge with the Houston Astros (Capital Allocators, EP.166)
Insight
MLB playoff share voting incentivized low-paid video staff to facilitate cheating
“The players were also responsible for voting on who else got a cut of these playoff shares, which non-players. And those could include people like the guys who worked in the video room who were helping the players out all year. And these are guys who make 50,0…”
Ben Reiter Nov 30, 2020 ▶ 39:46 Ben Reiter – Over the Edge with the Houston Astros (Capital Allocators, EP.166)
Opinion
English soccer lags years behind Major League Baseball in data analytics
“I've actually gotten a lot of reach out from England, from English soccer people, and people who work for teams, about the Astros, because that industry is a few years behind.”
Ben Reiter Nov 30, 2020 ▶ 50:22 Ben Reiter – Over the Edge with the Houston Astros (Capital Allocators, EP.166)
Opinion
Astros' championship was ultimately sealed by executive gut calls over analytics
“I really think what tipped them ultimately was the fact that essentially their gut was what made the final call, like Jeff Luno making informed but gut decisions to really put the finishing touches on this champion, whether you look at Acquiring Justin Verland…”
Ben Reiter Aug 13, 2018 ▶ 20:31 Ben Reiter – Moneyball 2.0 (Capital Allocators, EP.64)
Assertion Supported
Astros owner Jim Crane ran team payroll under $30M during rebuild
“Fighting a Off the union and media who are kind of ripping him for running a payroll that was under thirty million dollars at one point, like embarrassingly low.”
Ben Reiter Aug 13, 2018 ▶ 27:06 Ben Reiter – Moneyball 2.0 (Capital Allocators, EP.64)
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Astros drafted Carlos Correa over Byron Buxton for unquantifiable psychological grit
“To Luno, you know, this is the sort of unquantifiable, like, grit, drive. Growth mindset type of things that they look for. So the scouting side of things really tipped that away from somebody like Byron Buxton, who was, you know, probably consensus number one…”
Ben Reiter Aug 13, 2018 ▶ 29:56 Ben Reiter – Moneyball 2.0 (Capital Allocators, EP.64)
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Astros evaluate prospect academic grades to assess growth mindset and coachability
“Like, they do certainly select four players who they believe have that growth mindset, and in fact, one of the things they look for is good grades, funny enough, for baseball players. I think good grades are a real indicator of a willingness to learn, which I…”
Ben Reiter Aug 13, 2018 ▶ 41:40 Ben Reiter – Moneyball 2.0 (Capital Allocators, EP.64)
Opinion
Ben Reiter: Reports of baseball's business demise are exaggerated
“I'm somebody who thinks that reports of baseball's demise are kind of exaggerated. It is a different sort of business from the NFL and the NBA to which it's always compared. It's a much more local business. It's much more like steady business. You know, it's o…”
Ben Reiter Aug 13, 2018 ▶ 44:18 Ben Reiter – Moneyball 2.0 (Capital Allocators, EP.64)
Assertion Supported
Houston Astros ran two concurrent sign-stealing schemes in 2017
“There are actually two sign stealing schemes going on at once. One was happening in the video room. One was happening among the players.”
Ben Reiter Nov 30, 2020 ▶ 14:39 Ben Reiter – Over the Edge with the Houston Astros (Capital Allocators, EP.166)
Assertion Supported
Bob Feller used a WWII telescope to steal signs in Cleveland
“Bob Feller, the great Indians pitcher, Went to World War II. He interrupted his career for three years to go on a ship in the Pacific, and he brought back this high-powered telescope, and he had it installed in center field in Cleveland Stadium, and they would…”
Ben Reiter Nov 30, 2020 ▶ 16:24 Ben Reiter – Over the Edge with the Houston Astros (Capital Allocators, EP.166)
Assertion Partly supported
Jim Crane faced a $5M fine but retained his championship and equity
“He was fined five million dollars, right? That's the maximum fine that an owner can receive in baseball. He lost a few draft picks, but keeps his ring, keeps his players, keeps the franchise valuation.”
Ben Reiter Nov 30, 2020 ▶ 23:10 Ben Reiter – Over the Edge with the Houston Astros (Capital Allocators, EP.166)
Opinion
Astros' sign-stealing was a symptom of an extreme drive for efficiency
“And I think when I look back at it now, the sign stealing scheme is a symptom of that.”
Ben Reiter Nov 30, 2020 ▶ 28:16 Ben Reiter – Over the Edge with the Houston Astros (Capital Allocators, EP.166)

Show 24statements(24 left)

The other half of the tape: Ben Reiter's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 4 times in 2 episodes on Capital Allocators. 1 statement on the record names them. every mention, with the transcript →

Who brings them up most Ted Seides 4

Statements about Ben Reiter, by other people (1)

Insight
Seides: Baseball analytics preceded investing in adopting a 'quantamental' balance
“Interviewing Ben Ryder, who wrote the book Astro Ball, twice now, but the first time before the Astros blew up, it was like startling to me that what he was describing was the movement into quantitative finance, and that baseball was ahead of investing, and th…”
Ted Seides Mar 22, 2021 ▶ 49:04 Ted with Patrick O'Shaughnessy – Lessons from the World's Elite Money Managers (Capital Allocators, EP.184)

Every mention by year

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Appearances (2)

EpisodeDateSpeaking time
Ben Reiter – Over the Edge with the Houston Astros (Capital Allocators, EP.166) Nov 30, 2020 35m
Ben Reiter – Moneyball 2.0 (Capital Allocators, EP.64) Aug 13, 2018 35m
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