Prediction Open AI assessment confidence: 95% certainty 5/5 debate potential 4/5

The private capital secondary market will reach $1 trillion by 2031

Yann Robard · Yann Robard - Liquidity Solutions for Private Capital at Dawson (EP.392) · Jun 17, 2024 · at 51:50

Yann Robard, founder of secondary investment firm Dawson Partners, outlines his macro forecast for private market secondary trading volume.

0:00 / 0:16exact quote · 16.7s
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“I'm on the record for saying that the secondary market is going to get to a trillion dollars by 2031. Whenever I say that, the first reaction is, you're crazy. And I've heard that a few times, I guess, in my career. But I have a deep conviction around this prediction.”

quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →

More from Yann Robard

Assertion Supported
PE exits average a 28% valuation pop over prior carrying value
“What we did was we went back to 2005 to 20 22, and we looked at over a thousand companies, and we asked ourselves, when a private equity company exit, what does it exit at relative to what it was carried at two quarters prior? And the answer is, it pops 28%. S…”
Yann Robard Jun 17, 2024 ▶ 25:58 Yann Robard - Liquidity Solutions for Private Capital at Dawson (EP.392)
Assertion Supported
PE IPO exits average a 42% pop versus 25% for M&A
“On exit, M&A on average is 25%, and IPOs are 42%, POPs, which would suggest that public markets pays more for assets on the exits than M&A does, corporates.”
Yann Robard Jun 17, 2024 ▶ 28:12 Yann Robard - Liquidity Solutions for Private Capital at Dawson (EP.392)
Disclosure
Dawson takes 100% of cash flows until hitting a 1.3x multiple
“What we do is that we give 60, 70% of the value of the portfolio. We'll take a hundred percent of the cash flows from that portfolio until we get to, let's call it a minimum return of a multiple, one, three, one, four, or eight to 10%, and then we'll split cas…”
Yann Robard Jun 17, 2024 ▶ 33:23 Yann Robard - Liquidity Solutions for Private Capital at Dawson (EP.392)
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
The private capital market will grow to $30 trillion by 2030
“If you think about a 15 trillion dollar private capital market that's going to grow to 30 trillion by 2030, our opportunity is to inject liquidity into that market.”
Yann Robard Jun 17, 2024 ▶ 35:22 Yann Robard - Liquidity Solutions for Private Capital at Dawson (EP.392)
Insight
Successful financial market innovation requires evolutions rather than revolutions
“The interesting thing about these markets is that you need to be half a step ahead of the market, but you can't be a full step ahead of the market. It's really interesting. Markets need evolutions, not revolutions. So one of the things that I learned while I w…”
Yann Robard Jun 17, 2024 ▶ 16:28 Yann Robard - Liquidity Solutions for Private Capital at Dawson (EP.392)
Assertion Contradicted
PE multiples held steady at 13.5x to 14.5x EBITDA since 2021
“Public markets have gone from 13 and a half times to 21 and a half times LTM EBITDA. Private equity has stayed consistently between 13 and a half to 14 and a half times.”
Yann Robard Jun 17, 2024 ▶ 27:48 Yann Robard - Liquidity Solutions for Private Capital at Dawson (EP.392)
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