Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2031
The private capital secondary market will reach $1 trillion by 2031
“I'm on the record for saying that the secondary market is going to get to a trillion dollars by 2031. Whenever I say that, the first reaction is, you're crazy. And I've heard that a few times, I guess, in my career. But I have a deep conviction around this pre…”
Assertion Supported
PE exits average a 28% valuation pop over prior carrying value
“What we did was we went back to 2005 to 20 22, and we looked at over a thousand companies, and we asked ourselves, when a private equity company exit, what does it exit at relative to what it was carried at two quarters prior? And the answer is, it pops 28%. S…”
Assertion Supported
PE IPO exits average a 42% pop versus 25% for M&A
“On exit, M&A on average is 25%, and IPOs are 42%, POPs, which would suggest that public markets pays more for assets on the exits than M&A does, corporates.”
Disclosure
Dawson takes 100% of cash flows until hitting a 1.3x multiple
“What we do is that we give 60, 70% of the value of the portfolio. We'll take a hundred percent of the cash flows from that portfolio until we get to, let's call it a minimum return of a multiple, one, three, one, four, or eight to 10%, and then we'll split cas…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
The private capital market will grow to $30 trillion by 2030
“If you think about a 15 trillion dollar private capital market that's going to grow to 30 trillion by 2030, our opportunity is to inject liquidity into that market.”
Insight
Successful financial market innovation requires evolutions rather than revolutions
“The interesting thing about these markets is that you need to be half a step ahead of the market, but you can't be a full step ahead of the market. It's really interesting. Markets need evolutions, not revolutions. So one of the things that I learned while I w…”
Assertion Contradicted
PE multiples held steady at 13.5x to 14.5x EBITDA since 2021
“Public markets have gone from 13 and a half times to 21 and a half times LTM EBITDA. Private equity has stayed consistently between 13 and a half to 14 and a half times.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Few secondary market players can quickly write billion-dollar liquidity checks
“It's interesting in the secondary market, because as big as it's gotten, there's actually not that many players that can show up with a billion dollar check to provide liquidity to a counterparty, certainly in speed and scale.”
Assertion Supported
Private wealth holds $150T globally, with only 2% in private capital
“There's a 150 trillion dollars in private wealth of assets under management. Two percent of that gets allocated to private equity or private capital. That's three trillion.”
Assertion Supported
The private capital secondary market represents just 1% of total private capital
“The secondary market has gone to one hundred and thirty five billion at its biggest year in 2021, and that represents one percent of private capital.”
Disclosure
Dawson has completed $22B out of $670B in reviewed transactions
“We've seen six hundred and seventy billion dollars go through our shop. We've done twenty two billion of that.”
Disclosure
Dawson uses AI to scrape PDF data directly into financial models
“We're using that AI to scrape data and coming out of PDFs into our models. And that allows us to avoid or at the place of using our resources for manual input, you're using it for actual analysis because the data is already in.”
Assertion Supported
CPPIB assets grew from $7B to $285B between 2001 and 2015
“When I joined in 2001, there was 24 people. I left it with 1200. We went from seven billion to two hundred and eighty-five billion from 2001 to 2015.”
