The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 13 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
The private capital secondary market will reach $1 trillion by 2031
“I'm on the record for saying that the secondary market is going to get to a trillion dollars by 2031. Whenever I say that, the first reaction is, you're crazy. And I've heard that a few times, I guess, in my career. But I have a deep conviction around this pre…”
PE exits average a 28% valuation pop over prior carrying value
“What we did was we went back to 2005 to 20 22, and we looked at over a thousand companies, and we asked ourselves, when a private equity company exit, what does it exit at relative to what it was carried at two quarters prior? And the answer is, it pops 28%. S…”
PE IPO exits average a 42% pop versus 25% for M&A
“On exit, M&A on average is 25%, and IPOs are 42%, POPs, which would suggest that public markets pays more for assets on the exits than M&A does, corporates.”
Dawson takes 100% of cash flows until hitting a 1.3x multiple
“What we do is that we give 60, 70% of the value of the portfolio. We'll take a hundred percent of the cash flows from that portfolio until we get to, let's call it a minimum return of a multiple, one, three, one, four, or eight to 10%, and then we'll split cas…”
The private capital market will grow to $30 trillion by 2030
“If you think about a 15 trillion dollar private capital market that's going to grow to 30 trillion by 2030, our opportunity is to inject liquidity into that market.”
Successful financial market innovation requires evolutions rather than revolutions
“The interesting thing about these markets is that you need to be half a step ahead of the market, but you can't be a full step ahead of the market. It's really interesting. Markets need evolutions, not revolutions. So one of the things that I learned while I w…”
PE multiples held steady at 13.5x to 14.5x EBITDA since 2021
“Public markets have gone from 13 and a half times to 21 and a half times LTM EBITDA. Private equity has stayed consistently between 13 and a half to 14 and a half times.”
Few secondary market players can quickly write billion-dollar liquidity checks
“It's interesting in the secondary market, because as big as it's gotten, there's actually not that many players that can show up with a billion dollar check to provide liquidity to a counterparty, certainly in speed and scale.”
Private wealth holds $150T globally, with only 2% in private capital
“There's a 150 trillion dollars in private wealth of assets under management. Two percent of that gets allocated to private equity or private capital. That's three trillion.”
The private capital secondary market represents just 1% of total private capital
“The secondary market has gone to one hundred and thirty five billion at its biggest year in 2021, and that represents one percent of private capital.”
Dawson has completed $22B out of $670B in reviewed transactions
“We've seen six hundred and seventy billion dollars go through our shop. We've done twenty two billion of that.”